Well, Alrighty Then

Wednesday, January 25, 2012 at 5:38 pm

Finally, some action similar to what I was looking for this week. Thank you, Mr. Ben Bernank!

For this post, I'll dispense with all of the economic doom and gloom and concentrate solely upon the technicals. I know that most of you reading this are only looking for numbers today anyway so, here you go.

First up, The Pig. Today is Primary Example and Reason #1 why I never trade Forex. Just this morning, the POSX looked to be recovering and headed to 81. Not anymore! If you look really closely on the finviz chart, you'll see an ORD. Maybe some would call it a bearish engulfment. Whatever. All I know is that this chart looks terrible in the short term. Though the index may find some support near 79, the area around 78 looks to be a likely destination. 77 isn't out of the picture, either.

Onto gold. These are some very exciting charts! Getting through the brutal resistance area of 1680-1705 is HUGE. I had speculated late last week that it might take some kind of "extraordinary event" to generate the enthusiasm and momentum necessary to overrun The Cartel encampments there. Well, we got it! Now, the big, big key is holding 1705 on a weekly close. This means that gold needs to hang in there for the next 48 hours and withstand any and all Cartel counterattacks. The good news is that there is very minimal "headline risk" overnight so we should continue to see buying in the Asian and European sessions. Let's hope that gold can, in fact, continue higher overnight so that it has a little cushion for The Cartel's inevitable attack, sometime before the close on Friday.

Below is silver which presents, for once, a much less complicated picture. Having cleared the first EE suppression hurdle from 32.80-33, silver is now ready to roll even higher. Though it may see some light chop near 33.75 or so, I expect silver to continue steaming higher until it reaches the area between 35 and 35.50. This is clearly visible on the chart below. If I had to guess, I would say that, over the next week or two, silver will tackle that resistance and beat it. It will then encounter the main downtrend line, currently near 37 and fail. After a fall back to (now) support at 35.50, it then mounts a second charge at the line and breaks it, sometime in mid-February.

Lastly, just a word about the latest OI numbers which were again rather eye-opening. As you surely recall, gold was down almost $14 yesterday. It appears to be a mass long-liquidation. HAHAHAHAHA! Suckers! The OI in the Feb12 fell by 18,000 contracts but only 9,000 rolled into April. The rest of them simply capitulated. Dweebs. They shoulda been reading more Turd! Clearly today's rally is primarily due to those same "traders" rushing right back in. I expect a pretty healthy bounce in OI when the numbers are reported tomorrow. Probably something like 7000 new contracts.

In silver, the OI situation remains stable and this is a very good thing. Yesterday, price fell by 30 cents but OI only declined by 5 contracts. A battle is being waged between resolute longs and the EE, which, as The Wicked Witch told you yesterday, is intent upon only allowing silver to move up slowly. Well, their plan sure failed today. Let's look for another, healthy 2000-3000 OI bump when today's numbers are released tomorrow.

OK, I'll stop there. Again, in the expected absence of raid-inducing, headline risk overnight, let's look (hope) for a continued rally in the PMs. Maybe we can get gold to 1720 and silver to 34 before the criminals in London take over at their usual, appointed hour. Keep your fingers crossed! TF

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YULP!

Submitted by beardeus on January 25, 2012 - 5:40pm.

FIRST!

COULD TURD BE TALKING ABOUT THIS?! ^

Green light folks per Jim Sinclair.

“Today is an important day. There are many days we talk but this is a mile-marker. What the Fed did today. what the Fed did today is they turned on the light of what will be QE to infinity. Today the light went on with regards to the intentions of the Fed. They did that for very specific reasons, we have troubles people can’t see and this is one of the ways out.”

Just one question

Submitted by cris on January 25, 2012 - 5:41pm.

What's the over/under on when a shooting war starts?

Just one question

Submitted by cris on January 25, 2012 - 5:41pm.

What's the over/under on when a shooting war starts?

As I accidentally double posted, let me add this - can anyone point to even one factor (amongst many) that suggests a shooting war is NOT coming?

Newmont Mining

Submitted by swampgas on January 25, 2012 - 5:41pm.

Newmont broke above it's 200 day moving average today. Bullish! says Forbes.

Visit to my LCS

Submitted by Dr Jerome on January 25, 2012 - 5:47pm.

Couldn't resist. nuff said

.

Submitted by aether on January 25, 2012 - 5:50pm.

why are the large intraday drops called manipulation, but the large intraday gains not called the same thing?

could this be a set up somehow?

/noob questions :)

Persuasion class

Submitted by Dr Jerome on January 25, 2012 - 5:52pm.

Here is what I sent out to my college class in Persuasion earlier today:

Propaganda alert!

It is my intent to keep this class focused on advertising and marketing, but presidential elections come only every 4 years, so I must speak up.

Obama and his team of young speechwriters made it very hard to disagree with anything he said last night. How can a political cynic like me disagree when he says “What's at stake aren't Democratic values or Republican values, but American values. And we have to reclaim them.” I agree! Obama opens the first sections of the speech dutifully recounting where we have been. It’s when he talks about the present that I began to be riled up. From the White House view, America is OK! New jobs, deficit cuts, revived auto industry. But he provides no context or evidence.

Job creation? But more workers are entering the workforce from our youth than there are new jobs, negating the new jobs.
Budget? What a joke! They only agreed to cut the deficit… not the debt… and that meager agreement takes 10 years to realize while we still go further into debt each year the entire time. Remember: Debt is how much you owe; deficit is how fast are you going deeper in debt. America is still running up the credit card, just not as radically as last year.Watch this enlightening video
The revived auto industry—a faint pulse is hardly what I call revived! It would have died in in 2009 if Congress had not dumped buckets of $$ into it. Any life at all is a vast improvement. Take a drive by the Delphi property in Dayton OH and see how revived the industry is. You’ll find acres of empty parking lots with weeds growing in them.

Our president talked about what we should do—over and over. I agreed with him! Then he told congress to go do it and he would support them. This is an election year. Are these bought-n-paid-for politicians suddenly going to work together—even for the benefit of the country? I doubt it. But now the president is off the hook because he delegated responsibility to bring change to Congress. Sounds like a plan to me. OK…sarcasm off, sort of.

I have lost all confidence that our political leaders can repair the economy. Hell, I don’t believe they even understand what the problems are. Bottom line from Obama’s view is that America is getting better! I tell you the truth in Christ, and I lie not: the mainstream media (all owned by 6 big corporations, which are owned by the same major stockholders)—that same mainstream media will dutifully promote an American recovery for the next 9 months until the election. They will bend statistics and squelch news stories that indicate that things are not so good.(Gatekeeping theory).

You don’t have to agree with me. I just want you to hear about the other side. You do the research and make your own decisions. But never make a decision after only hearing one side. If you don't get anything else out of this class, get this: never make a decision after only hearing one side.

Thanks for putting up with this cynical old codger's political views.

Because the suppression

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on January 25, 2012 - 5:57pm.

MODERATOR

Because the suppression scheme is DOWN not up.

Stick around here long enough and you'll figure it out.

Response to: .

The mining sector is showing

Submitted by bestever on January 25, 2012 - 5:57pm.

The mining sector is showing incredible strength today. I thought it was interesting that overnight Silver traded as low as $31.50... clearly someone had knowledge of interest rates thru '14, and was on damage control at 4:20 am eastern. FUBM ;)

____

http://comparesilverprices.com - throwing money from helicopters like its '99

I smell bacon

Submitted by SilverFocker on January 25, 2012 - 5:57pm.

Big Ben Pig Roast 2012........yet the trough is empty.

Go long Slop, it will feed the pig and the sheep will starve.

Oh what a ride we will have the next 2 months.

Blythe's song of the day

Submitted by bucktooth on January 25, 2012 - 6:03pm.

Wonder if Blythe would approve of this little ditty to the silver market?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=JzCkD3vRukA&feature=endscreen

Anyone else sense that this is 8/2 all over again?

Submitted by exiledbear on January 25, 2012 - 6:05pm.

Except this time they have even less tools to try to stop the advance? I suppose they could try hiking gold and silver margins to the point where they become cash markets, but then people would start asking why pay cash for a future when I could just buy the physical outright? I suppose the limit would be the stock market 50% margin requirement.

They are running out of time. They better get their WW3 on soon or it'll be too late for them.

BTW Turd, it seems to me that

Submitted by bestever on January 25, 2012 - 6:08pm.

BTW Turd, it seems to me that during peak hours your website is moving very slowly... I don't know what you're paying your tech team, but for $250 a month you could host the site load-balanced on 4 separate linux apache nodes with a fifth separate "brain" for your MySQL database. This can all be done through Amazon Web Services ( see http://amazon.com/ec2 ) This would make your website fly like a rocket, and would be more cost-effective and efficient, and if anything you'd see much more traffic coming in.

Maria called for $2000 Gold. Yummy

Submitted by GoldMania3000 on January 25, 2012 - 6:09pm.

ddfdfdfdddfdfddfY

India to trade Gold with Iran

Submitted by snoochieboochies on January 25, 2012 - 6:10pm.

India to trade Gold with Iran for Oil

Interesting development - India has reportedly agreed to pay Tehran in gold for the oil it buys, in a move aimed at protecting Delhi from US-sanctions targeting countries who trade with Iran. China, another buyer of Iranian oil, may follow Delhi’s lead.

http://rt.com/news/iran-india-gold-oil-543/

Exciting Action for a Change

Submitted by ReachWest on January 25, 2012 - 6:14pm.

Thanks for the update, Turd.

There's been a whole lot of glum lately watching the PM market. At least today was a break from that. While I am not optimistic that much is going to change in the short term, it's nice to see some upward movement.

EDIT: Adding a link to the Cartoon Newscast for today. (In this episode, field reporter, Bridget Black visits the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) storage vault.)

Interesting. I've noticed this, too.

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on January 25, 2012 - 6:14pm.

MODERATOR

Perhaps Steph can comment on this?

Response to: BTW Turd, it seems to me that

@ aether

Submitted by OrangeAlert on January 25, 2012 - 6:15pm.

I've had that same question come to mind many times. I'm still a noob, I've been following for a little over a year. But it's all manipulated. The gov'ts control the price both up and down in the short run...but when you look at fundamentals like the debt levels and Shadow Stats where depending on which inflation numbers you use the price would be $1500, $2500 or $8000 (these are estimates, I don't recall exactly). So where's the long term picture...up, a lot, or not so much if you believe the gov't numbers (but who here really does?). If it goes down $30 in 10 min at 2am, it's clearly manipulation. If it goes up that much, that's because it should have never really gone down in the first place and news sometimes forces the issue of where the price should be. A nice orderly price discover would be nice, but it just won't happen, the gov't can't let that happen or the price would probably already be in the $3000+ range and people would be selling dollars as fast as they could. At least that's how I justify it in my mind. I could be totally wrong and someone else could probably explain it better though. Lots of smart people here.

rickards

Submitted by GoldMania3000 on January 25, 2012 - 6:16pm.

JamesGRickards Jim Rickards

@Pontevetero Yes. But watch the cross rates for timing. Strong USD/EUR or USD/CNY or both is the green light. #Fed wants weak USD

Jan 25, 10:41 AM via web

In reply to…

Pontevetero

@JamesGRickards so now what. keep buying gold/equities. is this the pre-cursor to nominal gdp targeting

Jan 25, 10:33 AM via web

PSLV volume

Submitted by Marblesonac on January 25, 2012 - 6:20pm.

Pslv volume

Volume: 3,130,298
Avg Vol (3m): 903,761

Seems that there was more than 3 times the avg. volume today.

Also Turd, if you don't feel

Submitted by bestever on January 25, 2012 - 6:21pm.

Also Turd, if you don't feel like load-balancing on Amazon (which is incredibly easy to do, and cost-effective) you could also look into running APC (Alternate PHP Cache), it's a lightweight system that is a precursor to the caching system that Facebook now uses. Basically, it speeds your site up by storing all the commonly used queries from the database in memory, so the computer doesn't have to consult the database everytime someone loads the home page, the forum pages, etc. This is what I do for a living, and I can tell you that this site could and should be blazing fast, for perhaps less than you're paying now to host at Liquid Web.

Should Apple Buy Gold?

Submitted by iceman321_2k2 on January 25, 2012 - 6:28pm.

Somehow, I don't think the iZombies are smart enough to grasp this concept...

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/gold/should-apple-buy-gold.html/

"Companies investing in precious metals such as gold is not completely unthinkable. In 2009, life insurer Northwestern Mutual announced it purchased $400 million in gold. It was the first time in the company’s 152-year history. Chief Executive Officer Edward Zore explained, “Gold just seems to make sense; it’s a store of value. The downside risk is limited, but the upside is large.” Since his comments in June 2009, gold prices have increased from $950 per ounce to nearly $1,700."

Site slowdown...

Submitted by silverstax on January 25, 2012 - 6:29pm.

I noticed it today too, right when silver was soaring. I just assumed a ton of people were hitting the site at once trying to find an explanation for the price spike.

Onwards and upwards

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on January 25, 2012 - 6:38pm.

Thanks for the new thread.

I'm a bit curious to see how some other CB's react to all of this. I'm guessing that Big Ben just jump started something bigger into gear that will happen quietly among the other CB's.

We're in a currency battle. Expect counter moves by the other participants and possibly a statement and/or reaction by China.

Lurker finally decided to get on board

Submitted by Big Z on January 25, 2012 - 6:52pm.

Long time lurker who as finally decided to register. I've been in this game since the late 90s. money was made, and money was lost. In the end, I'm still ahead.

Welcome BigZ

Submitted by ReachWest on January 25, 2012 - 7:12pm.

Welcome to Turdville BigZ! Lurking is good, but coming out to play is even better!

77 POSX?

Submitted by Nawmix on January 25, 2012 - 7:14pm.

It looks like the Euro is setup for a nice rally on a COT basis. Commercials net long 181,662 contracts is a record; non-commercials net short 155,195 contracts is record; Nonreportables net short 27,160 contracts is near the record. Smart money super net long, speculators super net short ... Another indication the POSX could get down to Turd's 77 level?

Oopsie

Submitted by Ubergrinch on January 25, 2012 - 7:20pm.

Went to local shop. Asking $36.16/ounce. Paid for 9 ounces. Accidentally gave me 10. Effective price $32.544. Shhhh.

BigZ

Submitted by Ferd Torgerson on January 25, 2012 - 7:32pm.

Welcome to the site. Hope you learn and teach us something as well. Envy you your early start from the '90's.

And a BIG, BIG shout out to Fortinbras!! Good to hear from you again. Have no idea what you're doing overseas but I'm sure you're doing it "real good".

She's back! hey lady were gonna walk all over you

Submitted by Patrancus on January 25, 2012 - 7:36pm.

Bullion vault silver

Submitted by plantorganic on January 25, 2012 - 8:14pm.

A purchase yesterday of physical silver into BV acc't took 26 separate orders, some $20, $50, $120... and a few $xx,xxx....

Bullion Vault transacts in the marketplace needing direct sellers. Thinking there will be a day when I push the bullion vault or goldmoney buy button and my computer just spins endlessly and I go begging to all the turdites for their scrap metal.

I'll bet your mom will be proud

Submitted by Hoping to learn on January 25, 2012 - 8:23pm.

C'mon man , step up and do the right thing.

Not passing judgement, just saying

How will CB's respond to the Feds decision? / Superunknown

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on January 25, 2012 - 8:29pm.

BigZ

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on January 25, 2012 - 8:31pm.

Welcome to the fold!

It appears someone...

Submitted by DaddyO on January 25, 2012 - 8:32pm.

got a royal ass chewing...

http://drudgereport.com/flash3.htm

DaddyO

@EricO...Spike acknowledged!!

Submitted by DaddyO on January 25, 2012 - 8:54pm.

Well, now you know why I don't trade anymore, I wanted to keep what was left of my dry powder.

DaddyO

PS: The first quarter isn't over yet!!! A real beat down could still be in the offing. Although it appears the markets have seen that the worm has turned.

DaddyO - OBummer was expecting hi$

Submitted by Be Prepared on January 25, 2012 - 8:57pm.

a$$ to be ki$$ed and it wasn't... good for the Governor of Arizona!

Thanks for the welcome

Submitted by Big Z on January 25, 2012 - 8:58pm.

Thanks for the welcome. Although I normally don't have a lot to say, there are far more younger and smarter minds here than mine I will chime in from time to time. I was able to stack 500 oz this morning after the take down, and before the run up..... Sometimes I get it correct. LOL

Just spoke with my buddy who

Submitted by Dr G on January 25, 2012 - 9:02pm.

Just spoke with my buddy who is a firefighter in Arizona. He said O'bummer landed at the Mesa airport earlier this afternoon. They housed his presidential limos in the firehouse (it is the airport firehouse). He got to see O'bummer and said he looked like an a-hole. Just anecdotal of course :)

Welcome Big Z

Submitted by murphy on January 25, 2012 - 9:03pm.

I am guessing you know the hand shake.

@BigZ, good for you. Many

Submitted by Dr G on January 25, 2012 - 9:04pm.

@BigZ, good for you. Many here will not stack 500 oz in their entire stacking careers. It's all relative, but that's a nice purchase. Congrats on it.

@BigZ - Nice purchase! As I'm

Submitted by silverstax on January 25, 2012 - 9:18pm.

@BigZ - Nice purchase! As I'm sure you've probably noticed from lurking on this forum, you are advised to pick up your order via boat and/or snowmobile on a half-frozen river

I learn from others

Submitted by Big Z on January 25, 2012 - 9:22pm.

I learn from others mistakes. Not taking my stash out of my hidie hole. No boat trips for me.... LOL

Greatest Truth Never Told #42-44

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on January 25, 2012 - 9:33pm.

The entire series is available at this link and starts with #1 "The Riddle"

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/108263#comment-108263

No. Patrick

Submitted by Last Rebel on January 25, 2012 - 9:56pm.

No.

Patrick Henry:

http://libertyonline.hypermall.com/henry-liberty.html

Got PT?

Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk

Submitted by IndigoStar7 on January 25, 2012 - 10:03pm.

Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk

Davos-Klosters, Switzerland 25-29 January

Introduction

As the financial crisis unfolded in 2008 and 2009, the world lacked an appropriate and effective crisis response mechanism. To address this vacuum, the G20 emerged as a new entity of "global" leadership with a mandate that extended well beyond its prior limited economic agenda. The G20 thus was catapulted to global leaders’ stature by the need for a quasi-legitimate crisis response forum and the recognition that existing entities were simply not up to the task.

This incapacity of global institutions to handle such a threat was a long time in the making. In the period immediately following the end of the Second World War, global institutions were created that would serve as the bedrock of efforts to address global issues. The United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, among others, were established, in part to ensure that global conflicts were settled not through the exercise of raw power, but rather through governance structures built on agreed-upon rules, global membership and decisions taken by votes of its members.

While these organizations retain similar roles, they are meeting current challenges with diminishing returns. These institutions largely remain crystallized in their post-war forms, and their effectiveness is now under severe strain as today’s most pressing issues, primarily economic and financial, threaten to metastasize into full-fledged global crises. Today’s most acute problems are global, systemic and characterized by complex interlinkages that place increased demands on the very global institutions that have struggled to keep up with developments. Newer institutions have not filled the gap: since its largely successful 2009 efforts at a coordinated response to the global financial crisis, the G20 has been increasingly ineffectual as well.

The dearth of truly effective global institutions is part of a larger geopolitical trend, one in which the global agenda is increasingly driven in a patchwork fashion, influenced as much on a regional as on a global one. This rise of regionalism is exacerbated by the inability of global institutions to adequately address challenges, but it also arises from ......

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GAC_GeopoliticalRisk_Report_2012.pdf

__________________

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3172/daily-dphaze-news-machine

Interesting....

Submitted by schmederling on January 25, 2012 - 10:11pm.

This is normal market reaction after a Fed speech - let's what and see over the next couple day before we get excited.

If there is one things I have learned it to wait a little before jumping in after such moves...

Let's see if this rolls over - or we head into the up trend....

Not trying to be negative here just careful.

Thanks

@ cpn, monedas & IRB

Submitted by ClinkinKY on January 25, 2012 - 10:20pm.

@Monedas - Like this guy is

Submitted by cpnscarlet on January 25, 2012 - 5:55pm.

@Monedas - Like this guy is even going to get anywhere near market or monatary fundamentals in a nationwide speech to the common urban proletariat? Just be glad he's using words with more than 2 syllables. GOLD?? Obama?? Past fillings and bling, his base (outside of the aforementioned staff) probably doesn't know that there are American gold coins to be had. You better lower your expectation of Bojangles Lenin quick.

"My Message is Simple": Obama's SOTU Written at 8th Grade Level for Third Straight Year

By Eric Ostermeier, Smart Politics, on January 25, 2012

Obama's SOTU addresses have the lowest average Flesch-Kincaid score of any modern president; Obama owns three of the six lowest-scoring addresses since FDR

For the third consecutive State of the Union Address, Barack Obama spoke in clear, plain terms.

And for the third straight Address, the President's speech was written at an eighth-grade level.

In Obama's own words: "My message is simple."

But was it too simplistic?

A Smart Politics study of the 70 orally delivered State of the Union Addresses since 1934 finds the text of Obama's 2012 speech to have tallied the third lowest score on the Flesch-Kincaid readability test, at an 8.4 grade level.

Obama also delivered the second lowest scoring address in 2011 (at an 8.1 grade level) and the sixth lowest in 2010 (at an 8.8 grade level)

The Flesch-Kincaid test is designed to assess the readability level of written text, with a formula that translates the score to a U.S. grade level. Longer sentences and sentences utilizing words with more syllables produce higher scores. Shorter sentences and sentences incorporating more monosyllabic words yield lower scores.

old folks need input!

Submitted by wonderer on January 25, 2012 - 10:20pm.

My li'l ol lady neighbor asked me (who is clueless) for advice. Her husband has Parkinson's and she has has to take over the checkbook. She decided that his "checkbook savings" was just depreciating, so she took about 2/3 of it, and bought some physical. She left enough cash in for about 6 to 9 months of needed expenses.

Unfortunately, she did this back when gold was at it high last fall. I am telling her to hold tight, but what do I know? I am just another clueless little old lady, who never was taught a single thing about fractional banking, Bernanke, helicopters, Euros, etc.

Any advice for us pitiful seniors, living on the ever ephemeral SSI, and whatever savings are left over after all the machinations of the past 40 years?

I suppose her major worry is how soon will physical gold coins get back to 2000, and how best to maintain the value of their savings, for his eventual nursing home expenses.

P.S. It breaks my heart that this site is going to go to a "pay-per-view". Some of us just can't afford any extra expense. We are worrying about food, meds, and rent!

I'm now convinced

Submitted by T on January 25, 2012 - 10:31pm.

....the PTB, the Cartel, EE, or whatever you want to call them.....have finally capitulated. They have quit. they have given up the fight. No more will we see any slam downs, any manipulation, any margin hikes, any whipsaw sucker reversals.....

Gold and Silver To The Moon..... Isnt that Fantastic ???

Halleluliah..... nothin but blue skies now boys....... better jump on this bus

and the Miners Too !!! buy all the miners now and ride it to the moon.......

The Cartel is giving up the fight.