Long-Term Charts for a Long-Term Weekend

Sunday, January 15, 2012 at 4:47 pm

First of all, I want to thank everyone for their condolences and well wishes for my pal, Sweetness. He's had a tough go of it recently and every bit of encouragement helps.

With the U.S. markets closed tomorrow, we all have to be on the lookout for some Cartel Craziness between now and Tuesday morning. The Jackals have been utilizing some of these three-day weekends recently to wreak havoc on our precious metals so be on the lookout for all types of shenanigans, especially in light of the European credit downgrades that were announced late Friday.

Let's head straight to the weekly charts. First up, as usual, is gold. Note that gold remains firmly entrenched in its long-term UP channel. This is the trend that began at the onset of QE back in 2008 and it continues to this day. Knowing this, can you see why I hold fools such as Gartman in such low regard? To proclaim "the bull market in gold is over" when gold is still so clearly in its channel is either complete foolishness or stupidity. Into which camp Gartman and his ilk fall, I'll let you decide.

paper_1-15goldwl.jpgpaper_1-15goldws.jpg

To answer the question, which way will it break, remember the following: The long-term trend almost always wins out in the absence of a change in fundamentals. Will the fundamental story for gold change in the next eight weeks? I doubt it.

Next, let's look at silver where we find, not surprisingly, a similar chart. However, there's an obvious, major difference. Note that when silver broke through its long-term channel, it tested the top of the channel about 12 weeks later and then, after that level held as support, it catapulted from $30 to $50 in about 3 months. (Notice that when the same breakout occurred in gold last summer, it failed to hold above the channel and was subsequently forced back down.) Silver is now knocking back on the top of the channel again. Can it break through? Whether or not it does will go a long way toward determining just how far and how fast silver will rise in 2012.

paper_1-15silvwl.jpgpaper_1-15silvws_0.jpg

In silver, also note that the only time we've had two, consecutive UP weeks has been during rallies. The fact that we just finished a second, consecutive UP week bodes well for the next several weeks of price.

Here are two other charts that we'll certainly be watching this week.

paper_1-15crude.jpgpaper_1-15pig.jpg

OK, here is your reading list to help you pass the time while the U.S. markets are closed:

First, the situation in the Persian Gulf continues to deteriorate:

http://www.debka.com/article/21652/

Next, a great article from ZH that shows how one can profit from simply being long gold overnight in the U.S. and short gold during the day. As if this surprises anyone around here...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/overnight-longintraday-short-gold-fund-more-doubles-just-over-year-generates-43-annualized-retu

Here's some fresh, red meat from Eric King:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/13_Barron_-_Physical_Gold_%26_Silver_to_Crush_Paper_Markets.html

Another interesting article from Jeff Nielson:

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=23712:goldsilver-price-ratio-getting-silly-again&catid=42:rokstories

And here is a great story on the demise of The Pig from our pal, Jim Willie:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1326306021.php

And that's all for now. Enjoy your Monday but be sure to keep a close eye on the PMs.   TF

Comments

ThoughtCriminal's picture

Masters of War

Submitted by ThoughtCriminal on January 15, 2012 - 4:54pm.

Be Prepared's picture

No Second Thoughts

Submitted by Be Prepared on January 15, 2012 - 4:57pm.

We are the line and where we go from here decides much of what may come for years.  There are just no simple answers.  What we all do know.... is that we have much to learn and so very little time to get there.  It is easily believable under most circumstances to see a place by, no later than, 2015... where the world and its economy are in some real tatters.  Mad Max is a movie so its not about those ideas, but control over your destiny, your free movement and your ability to disagree are truly on the line like I haven't seen since the McCarthy era.  On wrong look, in the 1950s and you were un-American....... On wrong statement, in the 2010s and you are a Terr*rist (modified to keep CARNIVORE for grabbing this post...he...he).

Gold and Silver, whether you play in the market or just stack, are just the beginning of having a distinct plan in place that you work everyday with your family in the pursuit of maintaining your independence and situational awareness of when to implement what ever prudent next steps make sense.  Have no second thoughts.....now IS the TIME and this IS the PLACE. 

ClinkinKY's picture

War Drums Beat Louder (From snare drum to tympani)

Submitted by ClinkinKY on January 15, 2012 - 5:09pm.

Russia: Attack on Tehran is Attack on Moscow

Russia has given Iran its bear hug and warns Israel and the West that an attack on Tehran would be considered an attack on Moscow. The threat heightens the prospect of World War III in the event of a military strike on Iran.

Read more at link:

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/151739#.TxM_00qfvw6

I Run Bartertown's picture

I'm not encouraged.

Submitted by I Run Bartertown on January 15, 2012 - 5:13pm.

vs.

I'm not encouraged.

ReachWest's picture

Sunday Cartoon

Submitted by ReachWest on January 15, 2012 - 5:20pm.

Thanks for the update, Turd. Things continue to play out as anticipated.

I think the fuse for a major event in MENA is growing very short. The setbacks in the Metals are nothing more than snapshots in time and as per TF's charts, they remain in the long-term upward channels. (I remain, Long Gold and Silver - and long Oil)

Here's the latest Turdville focused cartoon. (It's Sunday Cartoon time.)

Dr G's picture

Thanks for the charts, Turd.

Submitted by Dr G on January 15, 2012 - 5:23pm.

Thanks for the charts, Turd. Love your charts!

Turd pointed out the naysayers (Gartmen et al) and their idiotic thinking when it comes to gold. Simply boggles the mind. If these morons applied the same technicals to gold as they do to all the other stocks they pump on a regular basis, they would see that it is easily the top performer for multiple years runnning.

Certainly the same applies to silver. Even after brutal manipulation and smack downs, silver is STILL sitting above the midline of the long-term trend channel. There isn't anything wrong with silver (other than those "invested" in it are really invested in seeing the price go down--and most of those are naked at that).

So for all the bad word of mouth that gold gets, silver gets triple the amount of bad press or coverage. Of course, those of us that can use our brains to analyze simple fundamental and technicals know the truth: silver has been pushed down and is a coiled spring ready to blow. I'm not making a price call on silver or giving a timeline--because who knows?--but I stand by the charts just like Turd did. Read between the lines in these posts and you can see he is bullish silver...possibly more bullish silver than I've ever seen him.

Me likey.

Be Prepared's picture

Trouble in the Persian Gulf

Submitted by Be Prepared on January 15, 2012 - 5:23pm.

ClinkinKY's picture

@ IRB--I'm not encouraged.

Submitted by ClinkinKY on January 15, 2012 - 5:24pm.

+1000% smiley

balz's picture

Thanks for the charts... But

Submitted by balz on January 15, 2012 - 5:25pm.

Thanks for the charts... But am I alone to see two gold daily charts where there should be one gold and one silver?

tpbeta's picture

question

Submitted by tpbeta on January 15, 2012 - 5:27pm.

What's the difference between complete foolishness and stupidity?

Dr G's picture

(No subject)

Submitted by Dr G on January 15, 2012 - 5:29pm.

PutinWildAP_H8TR468x300.jpg

ReachWest's picture

@IRB

Submitted by ReachWest on January 15, 2012 - 5:29pm.

That photo of the President riding the bike like a young school girl, always makes me cringe. 

Be Prepared's picture

PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian predicts QE3

Submitted by Be Prepared on January 15, 2012 - 5:30pm.

PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian predicts QE3

A third round of quantitative easing (QE3) is coming from the Fed. The Eurozone as we know it is close to collapse — and there isn’t all that much that central banks or governments can do about it.

Regardless, the world economy still looks to grow slightly in 2012, according to PIMCO CEO Mohamed A. El-Erian.

Mohamed A. El-Erian is pessimistic about the future of the Eurozone. While he says that there are indeed some chances for a recovery, it would take a lot of effort on behalf of policy makers — and that’s exactly what he’s not sure about. El-Erian says there is a “significant possibility” of a worst-case scenario coming to fruition, which would be, as he explains, “the Eurozone fragments completely.”

Back in America, El-Erian predicts that the US Federal Reserve will step up to the plate and unveil a third round of quantitative easing, but he also tells RT that the benefits aren’t everything the world would hope for.

The problem, says El-Erian, is a misunderstanding of global economics only worsened by poor policy and politics.

“I think that part of the problem is that the more the Fed uses a largely ineffective policy instrument, the more the balance tips from benefits to cost and risks,” El-Erian tells Capital Account’s Lauren Lyster. As with QE2, says El-Erian, America saw the Fed increased prices of shares, but at a cost that also brought a surge in commodity prices, which in turn undermines both production and unemployment.

<Rest of the Article>

Dr G's picture

@IRB: especially for you.

Submitted by Dr G on January 15, 2012 - 5:31pm.

@IRB: especially for you. The point is well made:

PutinVsObama.jpg

Be Prepared's picture

One more Step into the Breach against Humanity

Submitted by Be Prepared on January 15, 2012 - 5:43pm.

Enemy Expatriation Act would strip away US citizenship from those regarded as hostile

 
Joe Lieberman is a piece of work.  Just in case there was any doubt about the government having the ability to indefinitely detain Americans thanks to NDAA now there is this bill to further strip away our rights.  This one will strip away all of them as it removes US citizenship for anyone regarded as hostile.  So if anyone complains about US citizens being detained this new law will allow the government to just strip away citizenship and the protections it includes and then they can do what they want with you.  Technically they won't need the ability to indefinitely detain American citizens if they just remove your status as a citizen first.  Then you can be treated like any of the other prisoners rotting away in Guantanamo.

Wonderful huh?  Welcome to the police state.

Here are the House and Senate versions of the bill:
H.R. 3166: Enemy Expatriation Act
S. 1698: Enemy Expatriation Act

Senator Joe Lieberman, who has announced that he will not be seeking reelection in 2012, seems to be taking advantage of his virtual lame-duck status by pushing for his most controversial piece of legislation yet: the Enemy Expatriation Act. The purpose of the legislation, as stated on the government website govtrack.us, is “to add engaging in or supporting hostilities against the United States to the list of acts for which United States nationals would lose their nationality.”

Press TV explains the inspiration of the act: “This act was in response to Obama’s assassination of a U.S. citizen [Anwar al-Awlaki] without formal charges or due process to, in effect, legalize such action by removing Constitutional protections of those suspected of supporting hostilities.”

The recently passed National Defense Authorization Act — which has declared American soil to be part of the "battleground" of the War on Terror — has alarmingly ramped up tyranny over the American people. The NDAA includes provisions that permit the U.S. military to arrest and indefinitely detain U.S. citizens on mere suspicion of supporting or sympathizing with “terrorists” — even as the definition of a terrorist is broadly defined. The NDAA basically undermines the benefits of American citizenship; however, just in case there were any opposition to such treatment of an American citizen, Lieberman’s Enemy Expatriation Act simply calls for the citizenship of any "hostile" individual to be stripped.

In legal terms, “hostilities” refers to any conflict subject to the laws of war; however, given that the War on Terror is highly ambiguous and all-encompassing, any action could be defined as "hostile" to the United States.

The NDAA also demonizes those who engage in “belligerent acts,” which could possibly include protests and speech. Section 1031(b)(2) of the NDAA defines “covered persons” as those who have "committed a belligerent act.” Those “belligerent acts” are not clearly defined in the NDAA, allowing much of its use to be discretionary. Such ambiguity could well mean that the Occupy Wall Street protesters or Tea Party members, for instance, could be deemed to be engaging in "belligerent acts" against the government.

President Obama issued a promise to the American people that the NDAA would not be used against American citizens, which may explain the introduction of the Enemy Expatriation Act to remove citizenship status from anyone targeted by the government.

Carthaginian's picture

Turd,

Submitted by Carthaginian on January 15, 2012 - 5:50pm.

I think the 4th chart you wanted to put is for the silver pennant, not gold (duplicate).

Raphio's picture

No War Please

Submitted by Raphio on January 15, 2012 - 5:55pm.

Looks like some people may be coming to their senses

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/appeasement-arrives-joint-us-israel-exerci...

zilverreiger's picture

War drums waning..

Submitted by zilverreiger on January 15, 2012 - 5:57pm.

..as SCO puts line in sand in Syria and Iran, and US / Israel combine is backing off for now

http://rt.com/politics/syria-iran-nato-rogozin-749/

Patrancus's picture

Ron Paul

Submitted by Patrancus on January 15, 2012 - 6:19pm.

Ron Paul has been the only republican candidate up to this point not beating on his Iranian foreign policy war drum, hello GOP establishment is their anybody in there? 

Turd Ferguson's picture

duly noted

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on January 15, 2012 - 6:42pm.
MODERATOR

and corrected. Thanks.

I Run Bartertown's picture

6:25 & 8:30

Submitted by I Run Bartertown on January 15, 2012 - 6:43pm.

make this clip worth every penny. laugh. Especially 8:30

In case you never saw him:

Turd Ferguson's picture

in my book

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on January 15, 2012 - 6:43pm.
MODERATOR

a person can be smart yet still be foolish. Stupid is just plain old stupid.

Response to: question
DaddyO's picture

CNBS Reporting more QE

Submitted by DaddyO on January 15, 2012 - 6:44pm.

is on the way.

Here's the link

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45977098

DaddyO

Justin's picture

Crazy PM bugs

Submitted by Justin on January 15, 2012 - 6:52pm.

Been a while, thought I'd drop in to see what the latest and greatest is in Turdville and the PM world. Haven't dabbled in any trades in a few months, and to be honest, probably the most stress-free time I've had in a few years!!  Hope everyone has been doing well in life and the markets.

Just saw your comment on your friends loss Turd, sorry to hear that.  Hope him and his family are coping as best they can. 

waxybilldupp's picture

Trip to LCS today

Submitted by waxybilldupp on January 15, 2012 - 6:55pm.

Took a trip to the LCS today.  In this case, it was a Local Coin Show.  This is a monthly event that attracts about twenty dealers.  There is a particular dealer who is always at this show who seems to always have a good selection of gold and silver bullion type stuff, deals in volume and has reasonable prices.  He's become my "go-to guy".  Today's conversation was very interesting:

He said the volume of his sales have picked up dramatically in the last few weeks.  (All he does is shows; he has no shop.)  He sees people buying in volume.  At a show yesterday, he sold 100 1 oz. AGEs to a single customer. The guy gave him a heads up so he knew he was coming.  I just wanted to buy 3 today and all he had left was a single 1 ounce and a single 1/2 ounce.  He had a dozen 2012 ASEs left from a monster box he just received so I got those at $35 each. 

He was shaking his head at the spread he sees now on silver.  Hasn't seen it so wide in a very long time.  He remarked that he has recently witnessed other dealers paying OVER spot for 90% coins.  He has always been able to buy under spot, but no longer.  He said that every dealer he talks to, who does volume in silver, believes that the silver price is about to break significantly higher.  At the same time, none of them can believe how reluctant the public is to buy PMs  right now.  They believe that will change, but Joe Public won't get on board until silver and gold go quite a bit higher.  I told him I was fine with that because I'm not done stacking.

The buyers he is seeing are folks like me who have been buying for some time.  The biggest difference seems to be the sense of urgency reflected in the quantities they are trying to gather in.  With that said, the two customers right ahead of me were buying some silver dollars for the first time @ $30 each for some 1921 morgans.  The last time I was at this show, silver was at about $32 and I picked up 23 nice morgan and peace dollars at $26 each.  Today, with silver at $30, they were going for $30 to $34.  Hmmmmm?

wax off

Orange's picture

Margaret Thatcher

Submitted by Orange on January 15, 2012 - 6:58pm.

Sorry Turd, I will read your comments tomorrow.

Just saw "The Iron Lady" regarding Margaret Thatcher.

I lived in the UK at that time. Screw the unions, get on your bike. They depicted her from her current dementia state. Why the hell did they show such disrespect. Her legacy has nothing to do with her current state. Why not show what she did, which is what has to happen in the US. Hollywood sucks! 

The Iron Lady taught Reagan, as he did her.

God Bless them both.

Bell Well Turdittes

Good Night 

Ubergrinch's picture

Tomorrow Will Be Fun

Submitted by Ubergrinch on January 15, 2012 - 7:00pm.

If silver goes down, I will buy more.

tpbeta's picture

I thought...

Submitted by tpbeta on January 15, 2012 - 7:07pm.

...it was a slip of the keyboard and you meant to say foolish or subverted.

Velocity's picture

29th

Submitted by Velocity on January 15, 2012 - 7:12pm.

...working my way up the pecking order ....being 1st ETA:  2025

PS. Thanks for the charts and 'holiday' reading Master Turd ...for us Europeans hope we can have a quick update after tomorrow nights trading

PPS. bought 4x German 23g Silver coins on Friday ...can't find a reference anywhere for their value, they're 999 ...anybody any ideas please?

 
 
 
The Green Manalishi's picture

RE: Margaret Thatcher

Submitted by The Green Manalishi on January 15, 2012 - 7:25pm.

I cannot bring myself to see the film yet.

The Greatest Leader since Churchill.

Syndicate content Comments for "Long-Term Charts for a Long-Term Weekend"