Breakout Coming? An Important 24 Hours Begins Now.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 7:36 pm

As we've gone through this week, I've tried to lead you to this point. We examined open interest and secondary technical indicators. Everything points toward a bottom and a breakout. Now the question is: Will price follow? We will soon know. The next 24-48 hours will tell the tale.

Let's just go straight to the charts. First is gold. I start with gold because, if the breakout occurs, I think that gold will be the driver and that silver will come along for the ride. First of all, here's an 8-hour Feb gold. You can clearly see the significance of the 1645-1650 area. Above there, and it looks like a bottom is in. In fact, it's a double bottom aligned with the panic lows of September. Below 1645 however and you are still rangebound and, of course, the possibility always exists for another test of the lows of the range.

So, if 1645 is so important, we can expect The Cartel to defend it. Are they? You be the judge. (Note the dark blue candles that follow the two encroaches today at 1645.)

I think it's likely that 1645 will fall, though. Go back up and look at the 8-hour chart again. Look at the severity of the attacks I circled. Those are $60 and $30 beatdowns. All we saw today were $10 beatdowns. Throw in the fact that total OI rose yesterday (a $23 up day) by 3000 contracts and it appears that The Cartel is resigned to letting gold move higher. In the end, they don't mind letting 1645 go because the real battle will be near 1700, when gold encounters the down trendline from the highs back in September. If The Cartel lets 1645 go, they'll simply fall back and begin their fortifications and battle plan for "main event", later this month.

So, here's the big deal. If gold breaks through 1645, you can almost be certain that silver will rally along with it and silver tonight rests at a very important crossroads. First of all, look at how aggressively the EE defended $30.20 today. Note that there three, different attempts to move through that area. Also note that each attempt was met with a big, blue candle in the very next hour. This is direct evidence of EE price capping.

So, why is 30.20 so important, you ask? Well, check out these next two charts and you'll see.

Clearly, silver is at a very important juncture. It will either move higher and through 30 and beyond over the next 24-48 hours or it will fail and be pressed lower, probably leading to a re-test of the $26 area over the next 10 days. What will happen?

Again, I believe that gold is the key. If gold breaks out through 1645 as I expect, it will drag silver with it. The EE will be forced to retreat and a double bottom near $26 will have been set. The EE appears resigned to this fact, too. Note that yesterday, a day when silver was up over $1, the total open interest actually declined by 300 contracts. This tells me that the EE was actively covering shorts yesterday in the rally and the primary reason they would do that is because they fear the breakout that seems to be just over the horizon.

So there you go. Watch things very closely overnight and tomorrow. Gold should be your key. If it can move through 1645-50 overnight tonight, that level should then serve as support for the inevitable raid in London and/or New York tomorrow. If gold then survives and moves on toward 1660 and 1670, it will, of course drag silver along with it and the all-important silver bottom will most likely be in.

I will be watching this all very closely and updating this post overnight and tomorrow. Stay positive and stay tuned.

10:10 am EST UPDATE:

First of all, many have commented that it's nice to see "the old Turd back". Not sure what that means but if it pertains to TA, please understand that the last 100 days or so have not been conducive to trading and forecasting. However, with this breakout, I firmly believe that the uptrends are resuming in both gold and silver. Additionally, these site changes I keep mentioning are designed to almost separate the TA from all the other stuff. Hopefully, the markets will continue to prove me right and you will once again see the incredible value of the forecasting that is supplied here.

Gold and silver broke out right on cue overnight and, after pausing near the Comex open, have moved higher still. This is very encouraging. From here, let's not ask for much. Let's simply hope that the metals hold onto these gains through the Comex pit session and close above those resistance levels we've been watching for so long. Namely, gold needs to hold and close above 1650 and silver closes not just above 30.20 but 30.50, as well.

p.s. Full Disclosure: I couldn't help myself today. As you know, the CME and JPM graciously decided to return about 2/3 of my MFingGlobal cash. Since it does not appear that a Comex failure is imminent, I took $1500 and bought a March $35 silver call this morning. Bad Turd. Playing with the criminals again. But, it is only $1500 so I figured...what the heck? As always, I'll keep you posted in how I do and what I might do next.

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Cool

Submitted by dgstage on January 11, 2012 - 7:44pm.

I ready thanks for the info

Great geopolitics!

Submitted by DirkAVA on January 11, 2012 - 7:46pm.

Master piece of a geopolitical prediction!

All credits to the uploader:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K3EjTPNKwa8&ytsession=NO1WDUBcIXt19dM8PEgTL0-Fpn2vfuTjhtTkPvjnU9XT_di3uhe7pmpLJ_AifXzX-tg3obkUqdvGK5SSrSqVcrDdQusrL7M0E7Q2bINe3yVs7DHupcu-Q29kCWGQAfz8McP22JTyX0X7BuVmwG2du8m1ivMHFhUwdQ9hdy-VbfWv0f5VjICrGSg6pqgiE34dvTerBjM9o_xL5fPcpPjYgodLjNiZWtVvuVH32pn4CSpKheeuB8qhEwdj-4M7E8myT6OUMNmQfC2gZa6vCgBLk3ra-YcS-_cagaxfzonjOHs

Please share.

Breakout

Submitted by Teach on January 11, 2012 - 7:49pm.

I'm ready...hardly even flinched during this last smack down. Time for a wee bit of vindication. I dunno, but something feels "different" this time round...

Bad Feeling

Submitted by gatortrader on January 11, 2012 - 7:57pm.

I have bad feeling with the dollar at breakout range that it's gonna drag down PM and stocks with it, one last really bad time after which gold will switch its correlation to equities. Why do I have a feeling this will happen? Because it has to happen this way, and with PM on a verge of a technical "breakout" after a $150 run in 2 weeks, perfect setup for a nasty smackdown. I smell it coming, be careful. Everyone's expecting it at 1700, not now. Food for thought

Thanks yet again, Turd

Submitted by s2man on January 11, 2012 - 8:00pm.

I will be watching this all very closely, also.

And to repeat from the previous thread, I am happy to see PMs moving contrary to equities and EURUSD. I hope it means something significant.

God, I hope so!

Submitted by Vernon Wormer on January 11, 2012 - 8:00pm.

Could use a little good news. Thanks Turd for all you do.

1645 will be breached within

Submitted by Dr G on January 11, 2012 - 8:02pm.

1645 will be breached within the next 45 minutes (before 7:45 Eastern).

Then, a brief move down, followed by an up move to 1663 by London open.

I feel it in my bones.

EDIT: silver to 30.35 upon London open.

but...

Submitted by Biochar on January 11, 2012 - 8:08pm.

jhnewman's amazing Hidden Weakness Signal (from 2 proprietary, customized indicators -- used in combination !!!!!) says we're going down ~ scary

For Turd: The Judge

Submitted by admin on January 11, 2012 - 8:20pm.

From last night's Daily Show

The Daily Show
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

It would be nice to think

Submitted by Ecomm on January 11, 2012 - 8:34pm.

It would be nice to think that we could have a breakout within 24 to 48 hours. Harvey Organ is looking for a gold/silver raid because of the pm attack today.

We got those cockroaches on the run!

Submitted by lairdwd on January 11, 2012 - 8:45pm.

No recession, bullish economic news, copper up. PM's are the value play right now. Money is going to pour in and push it higher large. Next stop 31/1680

An update to my post above. I

Submitted by Dr G on January 11, 2012 - 8:50pm.

An update to my post above. I have 1644.30. It is a battle.

One of my daughters turns 4 today. Back to the party!

Chinese are being pushed into equities by their Government

Submitted by lairdwd on January 11, 2012 - 8:53pm.

Should be supportive to PM's too. All signals are green for blastoff. Watch the cockroaches scatter when gold breaks 1650 and silver 30.50. Seriously - given the general markets and current sentiment - both should be trading much higher.

SO you've been stacking...

Submitted by DaddyO on January 11, 2012 - 9:15pm.

how are you going to protect your stash?

This is what I do in my spare time to insure my stash against zombie pilfering!

DaddyO

Oh noes! We didn't make the cut!

Submitted by Irene on January 11, 2012 - 9:21pm.

Homeland Security Is Monitoring The Drudge Report, The New York Times...

but not tfmetals? WFT? Hey Homeland Security, don't you love us too?

Hey everyone, time to break out the best of our conspiracy theories. ;)

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/technology/2012/01/homeland-security-monitoring-drudge-report-new-york-times/47300/

Best TA out there

Submitted by Turdle GG on January 11, 2012 - 9:23pm.

Thanks Turd! That's your best post for a long time!

you made the cut

Submitted by kliguy38 on January 11, 2012 - 9:25pm.

its just not reported....ALL blogs with any political substance are being monitored

Fitch warns of 'cataclysmic' euro collapse

Submitted by GenXer on January 11, 2012 - 9:25pm.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/fitch-warns-of-cataclysmic...

Write-In Campaign

Submitted by Irene on January 11, 2012 - 9:32pm.

I just sent some correspondence to my miners requesting that they retain their earnings in pms if they weren't already, and to consider paying dividends in silver/gold too. Wouldn't that be great!

Anyway, time to go pro-active. We can help ourselves, support Eric Sprott, and help break the Evil Empire if we all banded together and LET OUR VOICES BE HEARD!!!!

So, take a minute. Write your miners. Let them know what you think and what you'd like to see them do. We are their shareholders and let's all work together TO MAXIMIZE OUR PROFITS and take down the EE.

Why didn't we do this before? It's so obvious - so get crackin' guys and gals! This is something we can do and COSTS NUTHIN'. So no excuses.

KISS-Keep it simple. Here's one of mine, short and sweet (and slightly edited) to Endeavour. I also intend to follow up.

My husband and I both hold ____ shares of EXK stock in our IRAs. [More details of ownership]

I'm writing to let you know how much we appreciate the company's decision to hold its savings in kind (silver and gold) rather than selling into weakness at the end of 2011. Bravo! Now, if you could see your way to offering investors the opportunity of getting dividends in silver itself, I think you'd become the darling of many, many investors. Not that you aren't already.

Keep up the great work.

Sincerely,
Irene [full name]
New York City

Thanks TF

Submitted by Maryann on January 11, 2012 - 9:32pm.

I know we are not supposed to be emotional about the PM prices but it is just so darned much fun to feel excited about them....and it's been a long time since we have had excitement....

Dr. G, what fun times...happy birthday to your precious 4 year old. I'll never forget when my son was 3 and about to turn 4, when I told him he was going to have a birthday, he burst into tears...he didn't want to turn 4! To this day he is ambivalent about birthdays. 40 is going to be really hard for him...

The EE was defending today

Submitted by Brotha Bob on January 11, 2012 - 9:38pm.

It was interesting to watch the EE defend today. Not major beat down, but certainly attempts to cap the prices.

Harvey Organ had a post about France getting a downgrade. That ought to help the PMs, as the euro crumbles. Too many holes in that dyke.

New DHS tactics....

Submitted by DaddyO on January 11, 2012 - 9:44pm.

paranoia runs deep!

http://www.break.com/index/how-to-make-people-paranoid-1986448

DaddyO

Thanks Turd + request

Submitted by sixdollarsilver on January 11, 2012 - 9:48pm.

Looking great on the PMs.

I know you had a look a little while ago, but at this critical juncture, do you think you could have another go at the POSX with your sharpie. Resistance @ 81.50 is looking more and more stout and failure at this level could lead to an increase in velocity should the PMs indeed breakout.

Big thanks for your efforts bro!

Maryann

Submitted by Smiddywesson on January 11, 2012 - 9:59pm.

No matter how grim things get, make the time to be with your kids. I am a family only type of guy, and yet they grew up so fast! My youngest is a 15 years old, 6'3" tall and 195 pounds. His mom took him to his first mixed marshal arts class tonight. He loves gold and silver, and I love him, but they all think I'm too doom and gloom. (Normalcy bias)

Great Write-Up Turd Burgler !!!!

Submitted by Planters on January 11, 2012 - 10:01pm.

Sir Duke of Turd:

Great posts , i mean the last week and a half have been your best work, I have learned very much from you and hope you can keep on keeping on ~

With that said , why has Platinum been kicking ass lately ? Seriously If i could find ANY at a reasonable premium i would have scooped up a week ago. I think those premiums are indicative of short supply maybe. Mr. Plat was at one time last week 200 clams off of Mr. Gold no Online vendors had any. Seriously everyone try and find a 1oz Plat eagle. very difficult.

What is the Deal with Santa's Warning Yesterday ? Time's almost up on it no ?

Below is a pic of Turd's new SUV

Here we go turn it up, let’s

Submitted by Bohemian Blogger on January 11, 2012 - 10:07pm.

Here we go turn it up, let’s start..

I like this stuff TF

Submitted by Drifter on January 11, 2012 - 10:12pm.

I like the way you're breaking down the details

I hope you're making some money & the mrs. is in an amenable mood

"I've tried to lead you to this point. We examined open interest and secondary technical indicators. Everything points toward a bottom and a breakout."

"Note that yesterday, a day when silver was up over $1, the total open interest actually declined by 300 contracts. This tells me that the EE was actively covering shorts yesterday in the rally and the primary reason they would do that is because they fear the breakout that seems to be just over the horizon."

we are the list

Submitted by captaj on January 11, 2012 - 10:14pm.

The reason this site wasn't listed is because they don't want more traffic coming here and learning the truth, and buying gold and silver. And they don't want people to feed the turd. Thanks TF!

Where I come from...

Submitted by TransmissionReb... on January 11, 2012 - 10:32pm.

Turd Burglar has a completely different meaning than what is suggested by that truck!

Can you imagine the reactions of the LT's if Mrs. F was to try to drop them off at at school in that thing?

On another note, thank you Turd for all you do here for us, it is appreciated.

Transmission Rebuilder

Smiddy, you are so right about time..

Submitted by Maryann on January 11, 2012 - 10:40pm.

Kids can make us better if we take the time and effort. And if your son loves gold and silver you have taught him well! It does go by in the blink of an eye, doesn't it.

the judge

Submitted by lakemike49 on January 11, 2012 - 10:40pm.

I could not agree more. I am a registered republican, but this time only enough to vote in the primary. then if ron paul does not get the nomination, I will register independent. lets face it, most people have given up on this system. but what system would you replace it with? please understand this, I would much rather discuss gold and silver, but what the hell good is that going to do us, if we have no country to spend it in. anarchy gets us no where. please do not get me wrong, I am not the soft spot on the pillow, I have been stabbed, I have been beaten, I have lived on the wrong side of money. and i will add this, i am 62 years old, I did not have a choice, there was a draft I served. back then i was against most everything, WHY because i had no idea what anything meant. now I am beginning to understand, this country has lost it's way, we have become a nation of give me what i want, and entertain me now. the judge has it right. we have the base to grow on, we just have to find out how, to band together, find and influence, those around us. if you give up, then do not wonder, why things are going wrong. you are either the problem, or part of the solution.

by the way I think TURD is right we are on the edge PM'S. those that play paper be carefull, those that stack, do not worry.

asshole lakemike good nite

the judge

Submitted by lakemike49 on January 11, 2012 - 10:41pm.

by the way I think TURD is right we are on the edge PM'S. those that play paper be carefull, those that stack, do not worry.

asshole lakemike good nite

Trust me...

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on January 11, 2012 - 10:42pm.

MODERATOR

...we're on their radar.

Response to: Oh noes! We didn't make the cut!

u bet u r

Submitted by kliguy38 on January 11, 2012 - 10:53pm.

hehehhehehe...

wow at the new guys

Submitted by Drifter on January 11, 2012 - 10:59pm.

coming out of the woodwork

nice to see y'all post :)

The EE, is of course the Evil Empire

Submitted by FriedEggs on January 11, 2012 - 11:00pm.

If the high majority of people on here are comfortable and are bold enough to use an *occult* term such as EE - Evil Empire - for the unnatural 'dark force' manipulating the financials... than...

Why is only the small minority comfortable to say that the EE- Evil Empire - is the entire system ?

What is more logical to think:

1) EE is in financials, but its not in music, entertainment, movies, politics, relationships, religion, sports, food, media, etc...

2) EE is the entire system; all of the above.

Its like most people on here have a foot in...the thinking is there, you know something is wrong... you just now need to plunge in both feet...

I guess its extremely hard to fathom - that the corruption, manipulation, lies... is life as we know it.

Disgustingly sad, because it didnt need to be.

The good news is - my theory is worst case scenario and im a bit fried

And dont buy into the 'world is going to end soon' - every generation the illuminati have been throwing a Extinction Level Event to the masses... for fear and control of course...

Wash, Rinse, Repeat...

Nothing new under the sun...

History is repeating itself.

Fried(e)

Fried(e), you

Submitted by DaddyO on January 11, 2012 - 11:05pm.

are so right! However, not everyone is a jump off the end of the dock type person. I personally live life in the deep end, always have. My wife on the otherhand has to wade in a little at a time, but once shes wet look out, katie bar the door.

Just my .02

DaddyO

Excuse my ignorance.....

Submitted by Indentured_Servant on January 11, 2012 - 11:06pm.

but, why would the evil empire be forced to retreat? If they have the power to manipulate the market so thoroughly and completely since May, why not continue?

I don't trade paper and I don't mind $26-$30 silver and $1600 gold.

I_S

yes

Submitted by Drifter on January 11, 2012 - 11:07pm.

"EE is in financials, and its in music, entertainment, movies, politics, relationships, religion, sports, food, media, etc..."

this world is FUBAR

knew it deep inside since I was a kid

see you in the end zone

but once shes wet look out, katie bar the door

Submitted by Drifter on January 11, 2012 - 11:11pm.

dude gentlemen never kiss & tell

you're disgusting

@Indentured_Servant

Submitted by balz on January 11, 2012 - 11:17pm.

I think the EE can manipulate up to a point... At some point the industries and the investors looking for real metal need that metal. And if they try to get it from the COMEX the COMEX must have some metal to cover their pile of worthless paper.

Paper covers rock

Submitted by Drifter on January 11, 2012 - 11:20pm.

scissors cut paper

need = scissors

Great Post Turd! Let's hope

Submitted by Eric Original on January 11, 2012 - 11:22pm.

Great Post Turd! Let's hope you are right. I've been super bullish myself since New Year's. Sentiment wise, that week between Christmas and New Years felt about as bad as it can get. Just when you want to sell everything and promise to never touch another bit of silver or gold or miner, that's the time to buy.

If technical analysis is of

Submitted by tmosley on January 11, 2012 - 11:23pm.

If technical analysis is of no use in a manipulated market, one would think it would only be useful for predicting breakdowns, not breakouts.

If it works in both directions, then that indicates that there is some reality to the markets. I'm betting their isn't.

Please go back and read this

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on January 11, 2012 - 11:23pm.

MODERATOR

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3240/study-open-interest

Response to: Excuse my ignorance.....

Trade Positions

Submitted by Michigan Platypus on January 11, 2012 - 11:25pm.

"but, why would the evil empire be forced to retreat? If they have the power to manipulate the market so thoroughly and completely since May, why not continue?" -Indentured_Servante

Exactly what I'm positioned for. Currently have a small $500 speculative position in some Feb SLV $27 put options ready for a beat down in silver. Because a quiet short interest could just be re-arming themselves, sure they could have covered some shorts, but that frees up some more margin for them to make a $30.20 hammer on silver look really ugly.

I am prepared to get blown out of this small short position and go long with a myriad of 6 month options on UGL/AGQ and some 2 month OTM options on SLV and GLD.

Should we all tell DHS hello?

Submitted by Colonel Angus on January 11, 2012 - 11:27pm.

Or should we just ignore them and go about our business? You know they're peeking in at ZeroHedge also. It's the only way to get really good information early without being in CONgress...