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A New Year's Message From Turd

Lots to say yet so little time. How about another brief video, instead?

I had hoped to post this all in one video but youtube was driving me crazy. So here you go, in two parts.

Now, as you've probably figured out, I'm pretty worked up about this NDAA. If you're interested in learning more about the threat to your constitutional liberties, please take time to watch this video series of The Judge. This is well worth your time. (Thanks to Ron for providing.) 

More sometime Tuesday. TF

352 Comments

Boardwalk's picture

First. . . .

.. . . Majestic Silver is one of my favorite miners. 

Tecumseh's picture

thurd?

thurd?

Boardwalk's picture

. . . and Thurd all in one thread?

There’s been a lot of talk on this board about two related topics, currency devaluation and IRA seizures.  I’ve listened to all the arguments on both topics and have made my decision about what’s best for me in my particular situation - continue to do what I’ve been doing since 2005.   I’ve always thought of these to be mutually exclusive and highly unlikely occurrences. . . until now. 

Something crossed my desk this weekend that has caused me to rethink the likelihood of either seizure or devaluation, or both, occurring.  John Maudlin’s weekly newsletter was a guest column by David Rhodes and Daniel Stelter of  the Boston Consulting Group.

They do a really good job of laying out the predicament of too much debt that the western world finds itself in, the possible paths that can be taken at this juncture and the likely outcome of each path, if chosen now.  All of this is common  knowledge to anybody who spends any time in T-Town.

What stopped me dead in my tracks was this –

“We explored this option in our last paper (Back to Mesopotamia: The Looming Threat of Debt Restructuring, BCG Focus, September 2011). Assuming a combined sustainable debt level of 180 percent of GDP for private households, nonfinancial corporations, and governments, we estimated the debt overhang to be €6 trillion for the euro zone and $11 trillion for the U.S. We argued that (some) governments might be tempted to fund this through a one-time wealth tax of 20 to 30 percent on all financial assets.”

Here’s a link to the paper cited above.   http://www.bcg.com/documents/file87307.pdf

These fellas got my attention with that one.  A possible tax the rich scheme that may very well include retirement savings. Whoa! I said “Look out Elizabeth, this is the Big One.”

Think how expedient this would be.  No need for capital controls, border controls, trade controls or bank holidays.  No need to adjust exchange rates, mark existing currency or alter other pricing mechanisms.   Nice and quick, you’re sheared before you know what hit you with no way to wriggle free. 

The segment of society most likely to take to the streets over tax increases, or currency devaluation (those currently dependent on state assistance or living payday to payday) won’t even notice unless they’ve got assets in the financial system.

Here’s John’s weekly column

http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1325520000.php

and a link to the 2012 preparation document by the same authors.  This applies equally to individuals/households as it does to businesses. 

http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/uploads/pdf/The_Years_Ahead_0112.pdf

Reading the above material has not caused me to waver from my current course and plan of action.  What it has done, is put currency devaluation and retirement account forfeiture in the form of one time wealth tax on my radar screen of potential sand traps to watch out for, probably coming sooner than any of us might expect.

FriedEggs's picture

Turd

Thank you for the thoughts, help, information, sources, contacts, Turdites and love.

.

Much respect - all the best in 2012 - its going to be a sh*t show.

.

God speed...

.

Fried(e)

SilverHawk's picture

5th?

Stack first! Ask questions later!!

Ferd Torgerson's picture

PLEASE Watch and Bookmark this Video for Later Use

We read almost daily complaints on this blog that someone can’t get friends/family to discuss precious metals investing.  I posted this clip on Friday of a discussion on MSNBC between Chris Hayes and Ezra Klein regarding gold.  The discussion began ostensibly as a hit piece on Ron Paul but, in the process, proceeded to slam gold investing and investors.  I’m re-posting now, because, to me, this video provides a great opportunity start an intelligent discussion with your audience.  These two throw up all the usual straw-man arguments against gold that you can bat down one by one.  You can turn their comments against them to illustrate and build your own argument.

Early on, they mention Goldline as a retailer of gold and get into the charges Goldline faces in California.  Might give the general impression that gold retailers aren’t to be trusted.  No mention of APMEX, Gainesville, Provident, Tulving or other well-regarded sellers.  You can easily show them the web-sites of your own favorite sellers after the discussion.

Below are a few of the specific arguments voiced against gold in the clip:

“Can’t eat gold”.  True.  But, let’s look at the combined US sales of a precious food staple – bread.  In a one-year period, our bakeries produced a total of about $5.1 billion in white and wheat bread.

http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Business/US-sales-of-wheat-bread-surpass-white

Contrast that number to the 2010 sales of just one of the largest gold miners:

http://www.newmont.com/our-investors/financial-statements

It seems that Newmont alone sold almost twice as much in metals as all domestic bakers combined sold in bread during a comparable period.

“Gold doesn’t have a credible intrinsic value”.  Perhaps the expert can explain why we spend tens of millions to secure our gold in vaults at Ft. Knox and West Point. 

Here’s another comment that bears investigation:  “The dollar is stronger than ever”.

Show your friends this 10 year chart of the US Dollar index.  How much stronger is the DXY than 10 years ago?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chart.png?s=dxy&d1=20010101&d2=20120131

Another gem:  “The Treasury bond is stronger than ever”. Ask why Bernanke and the Fed are buying so much of what the Treasury issues . .

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/fed-considers-buying-more-long-term-treasury-bonds-to-lower-mortgage-rates/2011/09/06/gIQAWHox7J_story.html

. . . .and lending money to banks at near-zero interest rates to take the same bonds off their hands.

http://my.firedoglake.com/rexvisigothis/2011/07/03/debt-limit-follow-the-money-fed-lends-bank-100-b-25-bank-buys-10-yr-bonds-3-holds-bonds-lends-hedge-500-b-3-5hedge-buys-30-yrs-4-treas-uses-500-b-to-pay-fanfreddie-losses-to-banks/

The list goes on.  “No currency crisis”.  “Inflation has not materialized”.  You can easily find your own links to provide refutations or ask your audience about their own personal experiences/observations about inflation.

We sometimes criticize the bias against gold shown by some on CNBC but, to their credit, they also air interviews with traders and experts who favor gold. 

Not posting this for hat tips so won’t be disappointed if there are none but I hope you’ll make time to watch in the next couple of days.  Just wanted to provide the clip and counter-arguments to any who may be able to use it to educate friends and family. 

Tecumseh's picture

Smiddy and Louie

I wanted to clarify from previous thread/posts.  The term "Stupid Party" is not really name-calling insofar as that term has been used for decades to describe the Republicans, usually by conservative critics of the Rockefeller-dominated Party.  "Stupid Party" or "War Party" are the most common terms for the Republicans.  I personally believe that, along these lines, the Democrat Party should be called either the "State Party" or "Evil Party."  Again, this is not so much name-calling as it is descriptive of the politics and policies within which the Parties function.

So, "Stupid Party" is just another way of saying "Republican Party."

Of course, even if used in a name-calling way, is it a bad thing to call something what it is?  You have to admit, the Republicans are incredibly stupid, squandering, time after time, the good will of the people.  And, the Democrats are incredibly evil, imposing the State on the people and destroying liberty and private property in the process.

¤'s picture

Thanks TF

Happy New Year.

I just posted the Iranian point of view on NDAA over at The Daily DPHaze.  

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/110653#comment-110653

'Signing of NDAA into law amounts to militarization of US'play0.gif

hatami20120102191440920.jpg

NDAA amounts to "militarization of America" and "demise of civilian politics."
Be Prepared's picture

The Precipice & NDAA & SOPA

We All Stand at The Precipice

The Truth is plain and is fracking harsh. There is nothing pretty or delightful about the marching reality facing us. My opportunity to express myself to you today has become a precious commodity..... even more so than my lost silver and gold. If SOPA passes, our days here are numbered, so 2012, for me, will be measured in the days I count myself lucky enough to be here amongst the intelligent and contrarian group we've become at Turdville.

I, you, we, us can no longer be idle with our words because what we have to say and what we need to learn from each other may come to an abrupt end. Our days, here, at Turdville are numbered by the reality of our Government's desire to quash free and critical thinkers. You know this....regardless of whether you are ready to face the reality of it.

Whether SOPA passes or not, they are telegraphing their direction....their intent.....and their ultimate desire to shutdown alternative information outlets. So I must be strong enough to realize that I must count my blessings each day in 2012 that I, you, we, us are fortunate enough to still laugh, learn, discuss, debate, and ultimately take action while the bounty of information and friends are still here to call upon.

There is not alarmist position, because if TPTB can control our fiat, our government, our corporations......they don't want an uncontrollable internet for much longer.  I celebrate this freedom to be here today, by recognizing it and rejoicing in it.  One of my New Year Resolutions is to value each day I have here and maximize the opportunity to become even more "Prepared."

We have already lost so much with NDAA.  It's as clear as the nose on my face and I just don't see why other people don't see the march of Government.  When any piece of legislation is passed, the big question all of us should ask.... Why Now?  The Government.... Our Government has just legalized the arrest of any American Citizen within the United States by the Military under the sole direction of the President without the benefit of due process or access to a Writ of Habeas Corpus.  Why Now?  There is no war in the homeland except the war our government seems to be waging against its people.  They want to eliminate free and critical thinkers because dissent can not be tolerated when total control is sought.  Why Now?  You don't need to legalize a path of force against your citizens unless you intend to use it.

During the Cold War, the level of threat used to be epitomized by the number of minutes before midnight on the Atomic Clock.  There needs to be a new clock......the End of the Republic Clock.  How many minutes before midnight now?  Personally, I think we are just a couple of minutes away.

Repost & Updated

Antrobus's picture

NDAA - the power

re the NDAA, interesting that historically in places where laws like this have been on the books, it's usually the government opposition who are the first to be taken out - ironic indeed that Republicans are voting to give Obama the literal power of life or death over them. Unthinkable? Maybe Republicans are distressingly innocent about what can, and actually has happened historically. So sad that the terrorists have maneuvered the USA to destroy itself bit by bit.

Red Pill's picture

Stefan Molyneux on the

Stefan Molyneux on the subject  The NDAA is not for Terrorists, its for YOU 

​the time is fast approaching to decide what you are going to do..

jacey's picture

NDAA - Oath Keepers launches national effort..

to recall/remove members of congress who voted for NDAA military detention

We encourage all Americans of whatever political party to set aside their differences and come together in defense of our Bill of Rights by rooting out this den of vipers in Washington D.C. who are either knowingly killing our Bill of Rights, were too concerned with their careers to take a principled stand by voting against the NDAA, or are useful idiots who don’t understand what they swore an oath to defend.  Whatever their excuse, they have violated their oaths to defend the Constitution and must be sent packing.  This is not about politics.  This is about defending the Constitution.  As Oath Keepers Founder Stewart Rhodes put it:

These politicians from both parties betrayed our trust, and violated the oath they took to defend the Constitution.  It’s not about the left or right, it’s about our Bill of Rights. Without the Bill of Rights, there is no America.  It is the Crown Jewel of our Constitution, and the high-water mark of Western Civilization.

As two time Medal of Honor winner Marine General Smedley Butler once said “There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights.”   Time to fight.

http://oathkeepers.org/oath/2011/12/25/oath-keepers-launches-national-effort-to-recall-andor-remove-members-of-congress-who-voted-for-ndaa-military-detention-merry-christmas-u-s-congress/

BTGuy's picture

Hola

Happy New Year to you, Turd, and all you Turdites! I've been a long-time lurker, but decided to kick-off the new year by coming out from my dark corner and saying thanks to you all for the myriad of great posts and information I've absorbed from this site. Thanks for taking the time to express yourselves on the things that matter to you. I've always had the sense that when (the majority of) people here say something, they are speaking from their hearts and experiences rather than just regurgitating things they may have heard elsewhere or blindly believe without any due diligence of their own. I must say that I've probably learned more from reading comments on Turd's analysis (and, of course, from Turd's words of wisdom themselves) than from any of my "expert economist" friends. I hope I can add some value to the wealth of information already here, if I can.

Best wishes to every one of you! I look forward to joining in the many enlightening debates I'm sure to see on this site through the year.

Happy stacky,

BTGuy

ClinkinKY's picture

Hey Ferd, before you post...did you see this?

On a related note, “progressive media stars” Ezra Klein and Chris Hayes bragged last week about their latest off-the-record meeting last week with President Obama to strategize over the payroll tax fight with Republicans.

http://michellemalkin.com/2012/01/02/did-you-miss-the-christmas-white-house-visitor-log-document-dump/

Ah, too late I see:)

onealpha's picture

Rickards on Bloomberg 12-30-2011

This is a segment I heard on Friday on Bloomberg Haye's Advantage.  It is a link to the entire show, so just fast forward through the market pumping. The interview starts around 3 min in.  Enjoy.

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Economics/On_Economy/vgwEl1QUhgq4.mp3

punchbowl's picture

TF says ...

"we will do something.  Won't we?  Nothing illegal.  Everything above board."

Better read the fine print and mobilize a legal team. 

Isnt breathing illegal?  Do you collect rainwater?  Garden? Have garage sales?  God forbid that your kids operate a lemon stand to raise cash for the dance club.  You dont support farmer's markets and their terrorist activities?  Do you?

The term illegal just moved a couple of shades more into the gray zone.

We live in gongshow land and if we have houses the walls are made of glass.

Boardwalk's picture

@Ferd

I’m so sorry!  I didn’t know that was your customer care department that called my house on New Year’s Eve.  I thought it was this guy. . .

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRg05zz6oSo5a6i6Rn9572. . . so I hung up on him. 

When training your Elbonian call center staff, try for the mid-Atlantic accent.  It is neutral and generic, like white bread.  All the network news anchors strive for it. 

Your company’s untimely called really saved my ass.  I’d been drinking heavily, had popped a couple of Viagra and had just got into the hot tub with this gal

RedneckWomen.jpgwhen the call came in. 

While I was out of the hot tub dealing with your Elbonian call center, someone took me aside and counseled me on the (lack of) wisdom of drinking booze, eating Viagra and then getting in the hot tub at a party.  I’m playing it safe from now on, no more red neck gals for me.  I had NO idea about the axe!  Next time I’ll know to play it safe . . . it’s booze, Viagra and Argentinian hookers in the hot tub from now on.  A lot safer that way.

If I must part with my ’88 Chevy Caprice, then I must.  You know Shill’s motivation for accepting my car in trade for his Mayan bonds. . . he wants to use it for parts as he has the same year/model. 

It’s ok though, I’ve got a motorcycle I can use to get around town until I get another car.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ_hjhaSCUD5wA5poecroE

Oh by the way, be sure to tell the transport company that is picking up the car that it’s up to them to disable the security systems.  The one in the middle has rabies, the other two are clean.

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSrZWgnzdlbgzBsfzW_7Sp

Zoltan's picture

Happy New Year Turd

Thank you for everything.

Please be careful this year.  The other law passed regarding the internet will be used against you and sites like these.  All Turdites need to be careful what they post as well.  Just saying.

Z

Shill's picture

Turd, you are the Balls man,

Turd, you are the Balls man, thanks for the update

pointer's picture

Divinia Insidia - The Divine Trap

"You want to defeat us?" Roussel's Rothschild says."Abolish loans with interest and don't create any more money. Economic cycles will disappear. Wealth will no longer be concentrated in the hands of a few "mega creditors" like me and money will gain value in time.  What you bequeath to your children will have more value than when you first got it."

http://etherzone.com/2011/mako101011.shtml

Thomas Jefferson

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

Maybe Jefferson was talking about interest as the primary weapon.

Interest is known as Riba in the arab world - this guy talks about gold, the US dollar collapsing in his lecture called 'the prohibition of riba.

Gold is real money and it is competing with false money.  In a world of lies (fiat), the truth (gold) is the greatest enemy.  At about the 6:00 mark he talks about gold and silver.

The prohibition of riba

"Interest is nothing more than earning money through time"  which is defined as 'Riba'.  Riba and interest is not allowed under Sharia law - I think.

Could this be why the bankers want to annihilate the arab world?  Just look at how much instability has been caused over there.

Modern day slavery is debt slavery.  There are no chains and shackles - only around your mind.

Excalibur's picture

Courage

Turd, I'm full of admiration and support for your courageous stance for freedom. All power to you.  I'm sure your kids are proud of you already.  People will be scared even to legally speak against the authorities now they have all the repressive tools in place. 

Stasi.jpg

The Stasi were the masters of having nobody trust each other, each thinking the other was an informer.  You can see the Stasi tactics at work now.  Yes, the time to act and organize is now before the overt brutality starts in earnest. Scared people draw strength from the few that are willing to speak out and say NO.  Fear is contagious, but so is courage.

Today's message is the most important I have read from you.

Shill's picture

1/02    Wheat futures rise in

33 and a turd's picture

13 voted against

list here

I do not have a roll call on that, but there are 60 extreme cowards who wrap themselves in a flag while pissing on the Constitution.

13 Courageous Votes

Nay ID Crapo, Michael [R]
Nay ID Risch, James [R]
Nay IL Durbin, Richard [D]
Nay IA Harkin, Thomas [D]
Nay KY Paul, Rand [R]
Nay MD Cardin, Benjamin [D]
Nay MN Franken, Al [D]
Nay OK Coburn, Thomas [R]
Nay OR Merkley, Jeff [D]
Nay OR Wyden, Ron [D]
Nay SC DeMint, Jim [R]
Nay UT Lee, Mike [R]
Nay VT Sanders, Bernard [I]

There you have it. Anyone not on that list voted to trash the constitution. I am particularly pleased by the votes of Senators Jim DeMint, Thomas Coburn, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Michael Crapo, and James Risch.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/obama-signs-legislation-killing-bill-of.html

redwood's picture

Turd,My greatest respect

Turd,

My greatest respect goes out to you....your country needs you now more than ever, and we are all humbly grateful.  A donation.... just a  thought for your great efforts.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Nothing Illegal? pfft

I don't recognize our .gov as a force with any legitimacy. 

Therefore, nothing is 'illegal' in any sense that I really give a damn about. 

There is only the question of when certain types of activities become useful or productive in a self-defensive struggle against 'official' criminals.

I'll be glad when people are serious, but I've done my silly little sign-carrying march on Washington, so my conscience will be clear when we decide to solve this like grown men.

GoldMania3000's picture

ricards

 
 
Jim Rickards
 Well, I should say "yes" but with lots of volatility. Fasten your seat belt.
 
boatman's picture

sorry about your huskers, man

the ole ball coach is indeed formidable.

nice to watch my gators beat ohio state.

just wish the sweater-vest was on their sidelines.....the jamie diamond of college football.

hey-ooo

Shill's picture

MTV seems to know...Angry

MTV seems to know...Angry yet?

71185208's picture

Bob Farrell’s 10 rules for investing By Prieur du Plessis

Nothing new but something encouraging:

Wall Street “gurus” come and go, but in the case of Bob Farrell legendary status was achieved. He spent several decades as chief stock market analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. and had a front-row seat at the go-go markets of the late 1960s, mid-1980s and late 1990s, the brutal bear market of 1973-74, and October 1987 crash.

Farrell retired in 1992, but his famous “10 Market Rules to Remember” have lived on and are summarized below, courtesy of The Big Picture and MarketWatch (June 2008). The words of wisdom are timeless and are especially appropriate at the start of a new year as investors grapple with the difficult juncture at which stock markets find themselves at this stage.

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time
When stocks go too far in one direction, they come back. Euphoria and pessimism can cloud people’s heads. It’s easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment and lose perspective.

2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an excess in the opposite direction
Think of the market baseline as attached to a rubber string. Any action too far in one direction not only brings you back to the baseline, but leads to an overshoot in the opposite direction.

3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent
Whatever the latest hot sector is, it eventually overheats, mean reverts, and then overshoots.

As the fever builds, a chorus of “this time it’s different” will be heard, even if those exact words are never used. And of course, it – human nature – is never different.

4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
Regardless of how hot a sector is, don’t expect a plateau to work off the excesses. Profits are locked in by selling, and that invariably leads to a significant correction eventually.

5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
That’s why contrarian-minded investors can make good money if they follow the sentiment indicators and have good timing. Watch Investors Intelligence (measuring the mood of more than 100 investment newsletter writers) and the American Association of Individual Investors Survey.

6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve
Investors can be their own worst enemy, particularly when emotions take hold. Gains “make us exuberant; they enhance well-being and promote optimism”, says Santa Clara University finance professor Meir Statman. His studies of investor behavior show that “losses bring sadness, disgust, fear, regret. Fear increases the sense of risk and some react by shunning stocks.”

7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names
This is why breadth and volume are so important. Think of it as strength in numbers. Broad momentum is hard to stop, Farrell observes. Watch for when momentum channels into a small number of stocks.

8. Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend

9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen
As Sam Stovall, the S&P investment strategist, puts it: “If everybody’s optimistic, who is left to buy? If everybody’s pessimistic, who’s left to sell?”

Going against the herd as Farrell repeatedly suggests can be very profitable, especially for patient buyers who raise cash from frothy markets and reinvest it when sentiment is darkest.

10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets
Especially if you are long only or mandated to be fully invested. Those with more flexible charters might squeak out a smile or two here and there.

Shill's picture

Obama Violates Federal Law –

Obama Violates Federal Law – Funding Voter Fraud To Win 2012 Election?

Yep, and nothing will come out of this. It's funny how the media and DOJ turn their heads on stuff like this, yet if the CEO of a private company gets a performance bonus and takes his family on vacation to Disney World it gets posted on the front page of the Times.

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