Quick Update

Just wanted to add a few things before the end of the day.

First of all, things are really beginning to quiet down in NY ahead of the Christmas holiday. Trading is light and price continues in it's new range of 1600-1645. The OI of the Feb12 gold contract continues to shrink as it fell another 3700 contracts yesterday to 243,246. Today's Comex gold volume was not even 100,000. Interestingly, the Jan12 contract continues to be bought. The OI rose another 100 contracts yesterday to 1212. We'll have to watch how these numbers change in the next couple of weeks.

I'm going to start watching the Mar12 silver OI, too. Here's the trend from this week:

  • At last Friday's close, it was 55,356.
  • Monday's close was 56,532
  • Tuesday, the day of a $0.66 rally in silver, saw the OI fall back to 55,641. (JPM short covering?)
  • The OI at yesterday's close was 55,736.

All in all, quite a stable OI picture, especially when compared to gold. Volume, however, is pathetic. Today, the total silver Comex volume was estimated to be just 21,000 contracts. As mentioned in the previous post, back in April silver would trade 20,000 contracts in about 30 minutes. The dropoff is staggering.

Lastly, our good buddy Ned Naylor-Leyland made an appearance on CNBC Europe yesterday. Though it appears that CNBC attempted to wipe the interview from their site, Ned was able to capture it and post it to the Cheviot site. A link is provided below. Though there are many priceless moments in the skit, my favorite lies at about the 1:25 mark. There, a talking head mentions something about being told that "Chinese demand for physical was falling". The look on Ned's face will make you laugh.

http://www.cheviot.co.uk/media/press/outlook-gold-2012

OK, that's all for now. Have a great evening. TF

86 Comments

alert's picture

First!

First!

Fr. Bill's picture

Second!

Second!

LaMachinna's picture

Turd

cool

bernard's picture

All I have to say is :

All I have to say is : PALLADIUM FOR THE WIN... you can't hold a good man down. If they were really that good at controlling the markets... gold would still be at $250 :) FUCK YOU JAIMIE DIMON!

Eric Original's picture

History buffs will like this piece from Doug Casey

More to it than just the usual "get out while you still can" sort of discussion.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/doug-casey-getting-out-dodge

Santa's Elf's picture

@ Eric

I'm not sure I do like that piece, Eric.  Talk about a disturbing portrayal of the possible future here in the U.S.  In any case, it's certainly a compelling read.  Problem is, unless you're a bachelor with no children and the ability to work from abroad, Casey's suggestions are hardly practical.  I'm none of those things, hence my focus is on strengthening my own community and personally preparing the best I can.  I'm resigned to the fact that I can't prepare for every possible ill that may befall me and my family, but it won't be for lack of trying on my part.

Eric Original's picture

I hear ya there, Santa's Elf

Most of the things that Casey has been talking about for years are not really practical for most of us.  He's always an interesting read though.  

In the meantime, us little people just hunker down where we are and do what we can.  yes

EDIT:  BTW, Casey has been singing the same song for 30 years.  I guess it's up to each of us to decide when to panic.

Shill's picture

Just stepping in for a quick

Just stepping in for a quick moment on my Idope while my wife is in the candle store, can't stand the smell of Christmas cinnamon candles, they smell too, well happy for me :) Anyhow...That precious Paper sure is safe sure is safe...right? If you must sell, than you do...But least we follow the propagandist agenda, as this is exactly the goal here.

Less of us buying is a lot more for " Them " on the cheap.....consider that.

Be well

Think your IRA is safe think again.

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/12/think-your-ira-is-safe-better-think.html

Mammoth's picture

Afternoon Humor

So, just for kicks I posted the following ad on the local Craigslist:

------------------------

Affordable Silver Coins

Here is a good deal for you!

I have $8.10 face value in pre-1964 silver coins.  This valuable lot contains all of your favorites - there are worn-smooth Barber Halves, Barber Dimes with the dates rubbed off, 'smoothie,’ dateless Standing Liberty Quarters, and a couple of Walking Liberty Halves from the teens.  (At least I think these are from the teens, but these are missing their dates as well.)  And then there is a mint 1904 Morgan dollar - it has a hole in it but at least the date is nice and clear!  Note:  This lot of coins is unsearched for possible MS-70’s!

Price is firm at $267.30, which is 33 x face value, and these classic coins are definitely worth this price (even though I bought them for next to nothing from a very trusting little old lady at my church).

Better hurry and buy these now – remember...Silver ALWAYS goes up!

------------------------

Believe it or not, a number or people responded with lowball offers, while one conscientious fellow rightly called me a @#%&* for taking advantage of a trusting soul.  If anybody picked up that this was a joke, they kept it to themselves.

What – is everyone too frazzled this time of year to have a sense of humor?  Lighten up and happy holidays!

-Mammoth

silverbleve's picture

good stuff EricO

I also liked the historical context, and the speculation about when the peak of the American empire was. For me, I'd say the height was the dot com boom, roughly 200 years in, but thats just my best guess. Getting out of the US does sounds like a prudent consideration compared to the hunker down approach. I wonder if it will be possible to leave the country if they lock it down as he mentions in the article though.

ClinkinKY's picture

Afternoon Humor

Mammoth---No Franklin quarters?

Eric Original's picture

sharing a funny

Mrs. O brought home a nice 5 pound ham as a Christmas bonus from work.  It came in a very sturdy cardboard box, the ones with the flaps that fold in and everything.  About the size of a shoe box.  My first thought when I looked at it was, "Oooh, nice box.  I could fit a lot of silver in there!"

Katie Rose's picture

Yesterday was YULE

and I had a theory that the EE would once again sacrifice the common man's financial health on their special holiday. They have been doing so since I began watching the Illuminiti Holidays on May 1st.

Yesterday was no different. 

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/12/cmecomex-grant-jpm-temporary-waiver-for.html

"The CME, NYMEX, and COMEX have issued a temporary waiver of the requirement that market participants file an updated application in order to exceed speculative position limits.   The CME announced they have waived the reporting requirements through May 31st, 2012.

Has The Morgue just been given a green light on a gold/silver manipulation frenzy until May 31st 2012 in order to allow the shorts ample opportunity to extricate themselves from their 15 million ounce short silver position?"

Once again you and I were screwed by the folks who took an oath as regulators to protect us...

Enough said.

Mammoth's picture

Re: No Franklin Quarters

Sorry ClinkinKY, but no Franklin Quarters.  Do not despair...wait for the chinese counterfeiters to start making these once they pick up on the concept.

Just like those chinese fake 1906 Silver Eagles.

Juan Moment's picture

Imagine for a moment....

Imagine for a moment....

Stormdancer's picture

Katie Rose

Sometimes it takes a few days or even weeks for things they've done to filter into the public consciousness.  I suspect we'll eventually gain knowledge of much darker things will creep out of that dark cusp between December 21st and 22nd.

Too bad they're too blind to see that they are total, spectacularly exposed losers of everyting in the end.

Here come da Judge :)

recaptureamerica's picture

It was not china,

Article I read today said it was India that dropped it's gold buying from last year due to financial changes

Stormdancer's picture

Juan Moment

Ron Paul supporters are doing more with imagination, energy and TRUTH on a shoestring than Madison Avenue can accomplish with millions.  People really need to walk a mile in other's shoes and that video should help a few take that step.

A boy...maybe ten or twelve years old, scared to death, shaking with fear.  His dad was on the floor with his hands tied behind his back and a sack over his head.  His mom was huddled into the corner of the room after being dragged out of her bedroom in the middle of the night, in a state of undress totally humiliating and inappropriate to his ethical and moral senses.  He was seeing his mom in a way totally inappropriate for him, much less the 8 soldiers standing around in the room.  6 more were outside, poking their heads in from time to time.  His mom was holding his screaming 7 or 8 year old sister and his 14 or 15 year old sister was standing beside her, trying to cover herself.

I could see the emotions move across his face like water.  He wanted to be a man...his dad NEEDED him to be a man and he had no clue how to go about it.  Overwhelmed by impersonal, gruff, heavily armed men much bigger than he was.  Shame.  Brutal, visceral, emasculating  shame.

I don't know who dad was.  All we were told is "It's that house...get him."  We did. The FRAGO didn't even mention a name.

After a few minutes, the guys who wanted dad came and took him off our hands, shoved him into a black SUV while we finished searching the house.  We found an AK and a couple hundred rounds of ammo.  No explosives, no computers, no papers.  We left.

And as we left I could see another emotion creeping in to join the shame on the boy's face.   Anger.

That "boy" is in his thirties now.

You reckon he's forgotten that night?

I haven't.   I wonder if dad ever came home?  I wonder what his name was?

Economical Disaster's picture

From Jim Sinclair's site

There Are Tremendous Silver Shortages

Dear CIGAs,

King World News is receiving reports of significant waits for delivery of silver.  Today King World News interviewed the “London Trader” to get his take on the situation. The source stated, “It is so tight, the silver market is so tight that we’ve been waiting three weeks plus, before this takedown, for deliveries of size to arrive.  I’m talking about tonnage orders.  This is also key, most of the silver being delivered was refined after the orders had been placed, and again, that was before the takedown.  You can just imagine how long the wait times will be going forward.”

The London Trader continues:

“This game is getting so stretched that it’s going to break.  You don’t think the Chinese know this stuff.  If we get a close above the 200 day moving average in the mid 30’s on silver, watch silver immediately pop $2 or $3.  Silver is totally incredible.  There is nobody in COMEX silver contracts anymore, other than casino players.  The only way they have been able to keep silver depressed is by borrowing silver from SLV to meet immediate demand.  That’s the only reason silver isn’t trading $10 to $15 higher right now.

There isn’t enough silver for investors to buy (in large amounts) so they have been using SLV as a flywheel.  SLV is over 20 million ounces short on the silver they are supposed to have in the vaults to back the shares which have been issued.  The silver isn’t there.  So there are people who purchased SLV to own physical silver, but all they have is shares that aren’t backed by the physical silver.

Part of managing the price of silver recently has been for the central banks to attack the gold market.  But what is interesting is how this manipulation of the gold price was effected.  Obviously, the bullion banks, which are working with the central banks, have inside knowledge as to the timing and just how much gold is going to be available to them. 

So, in order for the bullion banks to maximize the effect of the physical gold they get from leasing, they add high scale paper leverage.  They then short-sell just enough tranches of COMEX contracts to surgically take out three important support pivots….

http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/12/22/there-are-tremendous-silver-shortages/

Louie's picture

@ Mammoth- Afternoon Humor- 2 possible responces

Can you IM me, I am interested in buying these coins!

OR- This add is not copy-write protected is it?  Mind if I post it on my local CL?

Louie's picture

@ Eric O- Sharing a funny

Careful or you will start a ham-pede on ham boxes!

Louie's picture

@ Katie Rose- CME

Has anyone heard anything lately on the definition of swaps?  We have been waiting what? 2 1/2 months? 

Louie's picture

@ silverbleve- Locking down the country

If they are as effective at keeping people in the country as they have been at keeping illegal aliens out, I don't think we have anything to worry about. 

cpnscarlet's picture

Between Harvey and Santa

So many interesting things to read this evening. But in digesting it all, it seems that something big should happen soon (60 days?). The tension is pretty thick this yuletide.

At least we have that Christmas card at Santa's site to give us a much needed chuckle - 

http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/12/22/happy-holidays-from-jim-trader-dan-and-jb-slear/

Smiddywesson's picture

Low volume tell

If I were a central banker and I didn't absolutely hammer you gold bugs when volume was low and it was easy for me to do so, maybe the spreads between physical and paper gold were what stayed my hand.

There's a lot of smart people on this site.  If you find out what spread between paper and physical acts like garlic against the vampires, you know when it's safe to be long in the markets.

One other observation, if they are staying their hands on low volume, the collapse is not close, otherwise there would be nothing to stay their hands and they would hammer all the gold bugs.

Think like the enemy.

Smiddywesson's picture

Everything is in place,

Everything is in place, indefinite detention of US citizens, the Northern Command to act on US soil, and most telling, the extension of  Robert Mueller as the FBI Director for 2 years.  How is a 2 year extension significant unless they expect something critical to happen in that time where continuity of management is important?  

To save the Obama administration, they have to reference fiat to gold, ramp gold prices, and print like crazy before May so that these measures juice the economy enough to show up before the election.  We have five months to stack, tops.

Smiddywesson's picture

The youth will beat feet

If they are as effective at keeping people in the country as they have been at keeping illegal aliens out, I don't think we have anything to worry about. 

If Louie (Freeh?) is on my wavelength, he's saying that after saddling our kids with the modern day equivalent of indentured servitude, they are not going to slave away to pay off their student loans in a jobless economy, they will do what our ancestors did, they will vote with their feet and emigrate.

Brain Drain!

Gil's picture

Great video from Ned Naylor-Leyland

He summed it up nicely at the end, be in physical. Great job, Ned!

Smiddywesson's picture

India gold buying

None of the figures you are reading about gold purchases by central banks is accurate.  They lie about meaningless noise in jobs/houses/GDP, does anyone think they will completely fabricate info re their gold purchases when that is their only way out?  They are trying to hide what they are doing, which is the same thing banks always do when in this predicament.  They are buying gold and will play with the price to devalue their currencies.  They have no other option but to print.

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