Happy RamaHanuKwanzMas

I found our next holiday video while listening to Glenn Back back in 2007. It's a sort of anti-PC anthem. If you are overtly political or easily offended, I suggest you simply skip it. If you're not, you'll likely have the frustratingly catchy chorus stuck in your head all day.

Sorry that I was unavailable most of the day yesterday. I had a lot of thinking and planning to do. With that done, I'm very excited about the direction we'll be taking this site in 2012. I don't have any big announcements at this time but we are going to be changing my format just a bit. I'll keep you posted.

Gold and silver continue to wallow after the expected rally of Tuesday played itself out. I find it somewhat comical that the ECB can magically print 500B frickin euro and yet gold goes down but, in the brainless world of WOPR, the euro went down so the dollar went up so gold had to be sold. Makes brilliant sense, doesn't it?

A couple of other things to point out. Feb12 gold OI continues to contract. During Tuesday's $25 rally, the Feb12 OI shriveled another 2000 contracts. This tells us two things:

  • The Cartel is actively covering shorts down at these levels.
  • Whether simply cautious or frightened off by the MFing Global situation, spec buyers are refusing to establish and/or add significantly to positions.

Again, on balance, Cartel covering and spec selling is a bullish indicator.

Volume is abysmal, particularly in silver. Yesterday's total silver trading volume was 27,712 contracts. In gold, it was 135,251. For perspective, contemplate these numbers:

  • At the paper price peak in April, Comex silver volume regularly exceeded 100,000 contracts. There were days in late April where total volume reached 180,000 contracts!
  • At the paper price peak in August, Comex gold volume reached almost 400,000 contracts on several occasions.

My point in discussing these numbers is this: Without buyers (volume), we are not going to see rapid paper price recovery in either metal. Between the MFGRAP (MFGRehypothecationAwarenessProgram) and all of the margin hikes, it's possible that we may never see those kinds of volume numbers again.

This lack of volume also confirms what the charts are telling us. Take another good, long look at this weekly chart of gold. Again, note that the recent beatdown stopped right at the 3-year trendline, just as we had expected (hoped). Pay particular attention to where I've drawn the arrows:

paper_12-22amgold.jpg

Notice that, depending upon how you draw it, this trendline has been approached 6-10 times over the last three years. Each time, the line has held, as I suspected it would here. However, note that price never sharply bounces off of the line. Often, price bangs along for 2-3 weeks, skimming the line while consolidating. I certainly expect that again here, especially given the time of year so don't go getting all excited about a sharp price recovery. Conversely, don't go getting all despondent if price hangs around 1600-1640 through the end of the year. Considering the chart above, why on earth would you expect otherwise?

OK, just a couple of additional items today before I start wrapping presents. First, this guy, Mylchreest, must be a closet Turdite as he sent this report to me directly. It's too long to be published here but I recalled seeing it on ZH yesterday so here's a link to the report there. It's an interesting read, to say the least.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/thunder-road-report-update-dear-portfolio-manager-you-are-heading-full-spectrum-crisis

This next item is a pure, TA analysis of the PMs from "Inside Futures" magazine. I don't agree with all of the conclusions of the author but what do I know? I'm just a Turd.

http://www.insidefutures.com/article/357746/Gold%20And%20Silver%20-%20Annual%20And%20Quarterly%20Charts.html

Lastly, the war drums for 2012 continue to rumble in the distance. Sadly, they seem to get louder with each passing day. Our esteemed President O'bottom likely sees a new war as a chance to raise his approval ratings during an election year. Since there is little else he can do to lift his ratings, logic allows us to conclude that a new war of some kind is inevitable.

http://www.debka.com/article/21589/

(Uh-oh. In a post NDAA2012 world, I'd better watch what I say or I'm going to be on a boxcar, headed to a re-education camp, before Christmas.)

That's all for now. Prices continue to be pressured this morning but as long as gold stays above 1600 and silver stays above 28.60, there's really not much to be concerned about. Hang in there and enjoy the day.   TF

129 Comments

Be Prepared's picture

Happy RamaHanuKwanzMas - Secret Santa

    Tis' the season for sharing.....so I would like to share my first with my fellow SpeakEasyers....because they're the best!

RedRover's picture

2nd

2nd

LOL, if I was only logged in, I could of been first ( I know.. I know, 'almost doesn't count', lol!) cheers!

Stormdancer's picture

Darned speakeasy

Darned speakeasy troublemakers (third!)

Mammoth's picture

Morning Humor

Ignorance abounds, but it helps to keep your sense of humor when you read what others say about Silver.

From a news article at Commodity Online:

When investing in silver coins, the investors have three distinct options to choose from ranging from Ben Franklin quarters to Walking Liberty half dollars.  Junk silver coins are usually coins that were in print prior to 1965.”

Link:  http://tinyurl.com/6rqfb9a

Shill's picture

(No subject)

BagOfGold's picture

Stormdancer...

Isn't it past your bedtime?!?...LOL!!!...

Bag Of Gold

paulindoon's picture

If the souce is believable, world is in deep shi*

Sometimes (maybe always) one has to question  info due to the source of it. But since our Turd himself has at times used Debkafile, I am posting an article of grave importance (should it be proven to be true).

Why oh why, can't some of these elitist  for once think beyond their self interest and instead consider what is good for the human RACE as a whole. I pray that wiser heads will take charge & tone things down (on both sides) but I fear that is not on the agenda.

Link: http://debka.com/article/21589/

Iran starts building a nuclear weapon: US and Israel tighten cooperation
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 22, 2011, 9:49 AM (GMT+02:00)

Iran has embarked on "activities related to possible weaponization," said American sources Wednesday, Dec. 22, thereby accounting for the dramatic reversal of the Obama administration's wait-and-see attitude on attacking Iran. The change was articulated this week by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey.

garrylindsay's picture

Where is Gerald "Gold 2000" Celente when you need him?

Or Max " buy Silver at $45 and crash JPM( sorry I meant crash your retirement )" Keiser!

Just feeling sorry for all those who bought PM's at the wrong times this year, and want to go outside and scream!

Eric Original's picture

All I want for Christmas is a

All I want for Christmas is a year end gold close over $1,600.  yes

Stormdancer's picture

paulindoon

If you understand who it is you're reading, and therefore "how" to read them, that source is very reliable.  What they're telling you is the Neo-con/Zionist alliance has fully decided on how it's going to deal with Iran.  Not why....how.

Debka was founded and is run by a former Mossad agent (there is no such thing), and you can cool believe they just sent a message that is reliable as it gets in this world.

The only question that remains is timing.

Edit:  BagOfGold I have had one leg on each of two continents for a very long year now.  I haven't a clue which sleeping schedule I should be keeping :)

ievi's picture

Hi Turd, I have a question.

Hi Turd,

I have a question. If the volume in SI is that low and there are so few players, doesn't that make it more difficult for the shorts to cover? For them to buy and close their shorts someone has to be selling. It seems to me if all that's left is strong hands in SI, we would see violent moves up(and down) in order for the shorts to find enough longs that will sell. Maybe it is just wishful thinking, but I would think that with the amount of shorts they need to cover that eventually the price is going to have to rise just to get players back in the game.

Tyler's picture

My dream last night - mass flooding

Linked from: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3156/it-was-all-dream#comment-107211

Good morning Turdites,
 
Over the past few months I've focused much of my energy on trying to understand the risks in our collective future so that we can better prepare ourselves.  Much of this comes down to standard research, but I've found that the most accurate predictions in my personal life actually come from dreams, and as such, I rely on them heavily.
 
I've been holding off on releasing this information because I've been hesitant to believe it, but my dream last night was the final straw.  In the past four months or so, I've had over 20 dreams regarding flooding.  A few of these dreams are more tame - an amusement park is already flooded in my dream, and I am there after the fact.  However, over 85% of these dreams involve massive tidal waves rushing into and destroying urban centers.  In one dream, I'm driving a car in a city and the waters come pounding in street after street after street down the grid.  In another, there are HUGE helicopters flying over the top afterward to try and pick up survivors.
 
Why have I been hesitant to believe these dreams?  A few reasons.  First, the information seems to conflict a bit with the other standard research I've been doing.  It has seemed more likely we would see a solar storm or perhaps a false-flag disease - not flooding.  However, when considering dream interpretation, you must account for the biases of the dreamer.  I would say that since I did not believe the flooding dreams and continued to be hesitant about it, it actually gives more strength to the flooding possibility since it will not go away.  The second reason is that the majority of dreams should not be interpreted literally.  However, when they are lucid dreams, and occur multiple times, it's probably wise to consider the fact that there is an aspect to be taken literally.  Of course, flooding could symbolize a spiritual event where our beliefs will be put to the test, or it could indicate that we will see a purification in the spiritual sense as in Noah's ark. 
 
Here is my dream from last night.  As I mentioned, I've had about 15-20 variations of this dream.
 
I'm standing outside in the middle of a city with a group of friends and family.  The sky overhead is filled with menacing gray clouds, and an eerie wind blows, foretelling of danger ahead.  I'm gathered with a group of about ten friends and family members.  We're discussing the best plan of action because a storm is coming our way and there is rumored to be potential flooding.  By potential flooding I mean some major flooding in low lying areas but that higher areas would most likely be safe.  Because of this, the discussion revolves around the best place to sit and wait it out.  Completely fleeing the area is never considered because the danger does not appear to be extreme. 
 
We decide to go to a friends apartment building a few blocks away.  There is still no rush as it is not even raining yet.  When we are two blocks from the friends apartment I look to my right down the street.  There is a 40 to 50 foot tidal wave barreling towards us, in between the skyscrapers.  There is no time to question how this is possible or how it arrived so quickly.  We rush across the street and over to the next block.  For some reason in these dreams, I have the belief that if you get out of the direct path of the first wave I see, that there is a possibility of dodging it.  Of course, this is not true.  When you get to the next block, the same wave is still coming for you.  And there it is on the next block!  As the wave approaches, I zoom out of my body and my vision is now much higher in the air above the waves so I can see the damage.  The water is just rolling through, demolishing anything that isn't tall or strong enough.  It would be scarier in the dream if I hadn't already seen it so many times.  In one dream I actually had the power to hold back the water in a Moses fashion, which was pretty amazing.
 
I zoom back into my body but I'm in an apartment with a few friends.  Presumably we're in a room that survived above the flooding.  I grab all the flashlights and anything else I see that will be useful.  I'm very annoyed at myself that I was not more prepared for what just happened.  I'm also slightly annoyed that none of my friends or family listened to me and they have absolutely no preparations.
 
End of dream.  Surely, I'll post back if I receive further insight that the flooding is in fact symbolic.  Until then, well, I'm not even exactly sure how you prepare for that one.
Be Prepared's picture

PIMCO's 2012 Predictions

I have a hard time believing that we had any REAL growth rate...much less 2.5% indicated below.  At least PIMCO is recognizing that the global GDP growth should be predicted at sub 2% for next year.

In sum, we expect the global economy to grow by 1% to 1.5% in 2012. This is significantly slower than the 2.5% growth rate achieved in 2011 and the 4.1% rate achieved in 2010. The risks to this forecast lay to the downside, which speaks to the question of inflation expectations. We expect global inflation to slow to 2% in 2012 from 3.1% in 2011.

Check out the rest of PIMCO's predictions for 2012...you know where Zerohedge.

cpnscarlet's picture

Deep Thought Day

Just listened to SGT's latest - 

If this video, they talk about Cynthia McKinney as a possible running mate for Ron Paul. Now the basic problem is that any time I have listened to this woman, my stomach has turned. She is all over the country and the world trash talking anything American. A Paul/McKinney ticket seems more like a circus act than a credible ticket. The idea of RP and Judge Napalitano is much more appealing.

Now I want to say that RP, in my mind, may very well be exactly what the country needs now, but I cannot fathom thinking of McKinney in the same way. So I am going to spend the day in some research trying to resolve this opinion of these two people. I will also be making some hard decision about my opinions of SGT and Chapman.

Any of you who want to comment on this, I'd love to hear your views.

Shill's picture

One to watch: Solar Cells You

One to watch:

Solar Cells You Can Paint On

The technology isn't quite ready for commercial use yet — its efficiency is much less than traditional solar cells, at around one percent as opposed to the typical 10-15 percent.

foggyroad's picture

Merry Christmas All

Happy holidays and Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Seasons Greetings and Merry Christmas! 

I have only met one person in Fifty plus years, who took offense, at these expressions of good will toward My fellow man, on a holiday, and celebration of Christ.

This fellow was a disgruntled unhappy individual, and begrudged Me, my Faith, what is the deal with that?

I don't, and can"t even conceive of poo  pooing,  some ones Faith, or lack of Faith, or other non Christian Faith.

Why?

Happy Christmas, British friends used to say, should I take offense, at the difference in the way the sentiment is phrased, am I so easily offended that I can't tolerate someone else's tradition or beliefs. Or should I just take it for what it is, a positive pleasant wish for good will, and best wishes to Me.

I think best wishes offered from one person to another to enjoy a holiday, is a friendly thing to do, its inclusive, not divisive.

Dr G's picture

@garrylindsay, Yes, please

@garrylindsay,

Yes, please continue to blame Gerald Celente and Max Keiser for the decisions you made to purchase gold and silver. 

In my book, there is never a wrong time to purchase metals. Some are more ideal than others due to price, but every day is a great day to purchase.

Dr G's picture

..and really, BAC at $5.40!?

..and really, BAC at $5.40!? On what news? That they settled a recent lawsuit against them? Unbelievable. That stock is overvalued by about 5 dollars. Should have known better and purchased calls when it went under 5. We all knew it wouldn't stay there.

I think the only route for BAC is $5 and then to near $0. Nothing inbetween.

ClinkinKY's picture

Franklin Quarters

Ignorance abounds, but it helps to keep your sense of humor when you read what others say about Silver.

From a news article at Commodity Online:

“When investing in silver coins, the investors have three distinct options to choose from ranging from Ben Franklin quarters to Walking Liberty half dollars.  Junk silver coins are usually coins that were in print prior to 1965.”

Link:  http://tinyurl.com/6rqfb9a

Man, if I could find just one of these Franklin Quarters I'd have a VERY good year:).

Bsong's picture

SGT

That is the stupidest thing I've ever heard from the sgt franchise.  You've got to get me out of this twilight zone, my senses keep tricking me. Cynthia McKinney?  Really? Shocking! I sure hope Turd does not out of Nowhere drop a shocker on us like this one.  Makes no Sense.  

ClinkinKY's picture

Deep Thought Day

Cynthia McKinney? Really? Why not Representative Hank Johnson (D), the guy who testified that he was afraid that Guam would "capsize" if we stationed too many troops on one end of the island? We are governed by f%*#ing idiots. But everyone here already knew that.

Actually, now that I think about it. If Ron Paul runs third party with a "legitimate" V.P. nominee, he guarantess four more years of B.O.

If he runs with Cynthia McKinney as his V.P. nominee, he guarantees to take votes away from B.O.

Yeah, Go Paul/McKinney!!!

BoblovesHawaii's picture

Merry Christmas

ActionFive's picture

Better painting please

That they have nearly eliminated the metals market on Comex, they could at least make it look at all real couldn't they? Maybe go up like other things go up - or down..  Or, maybe use it for something like just entertainment. Chartwriting, - skywriting like art of sort. Certainly something unrelated to economy.

MrSteed's picture

Thunder Road Report

I read that a couple days ago when it came out on ZH.   It is EXCELLENT.   I though it was so good I printed it out for my wife to read.  

LifeIsPain's picture

War on Christmas

Cute clip, Turd.  What's also amusing is that every year this time Fox News finds stories showing that Christmas is "under siege" and the Christian way of life is under attack in America.  Despite the fact that Christians are the large majority and have a pervasive presence, Fox and many Christians seem to feel that they are being picked on and discriminated against.  Somehow the idea that city hall is perhaps not the place for a nativity scene or people are saying Happy Holidays instead of Merry Christmas is seen as an assault on Christianity.  They even attacked the governor of Rhode Island (a democrat of course) because  he referred to a Holiday tree lighting ceremony instead of calling it a Christmas tree lighting ceremony.

Bsong's picture

Wow

The stretching of our imaginations we have to do to find comfort . Paul/McKinney 3 rd party I'll buy the only possible optimism call that can come from that scenario!

Sneed Hearn's picture

But in a PPT world . . .

Methinks you underestimate the PPT.

foggyroad's picture

PPT= :)

25x jan BAC 5.5c @ .19

:)

----old saying can't beatum, join um.

Velocity's picture

it's a 200 Billion Euro XMas... no, no, wait it's 500 Billion!!!

I don't know what you'd imagine getting in your Christmas stocking but we now know what the Euro Bwankers have, and it's a COLOSSAL BONANZA BANKING ORGY XMAS with the tree stuffed with prezzies, the fireplace choked full of stockings, the outside garden full of ribboned boxes and the street with a cue of 20 ton trucks waiting to deliver the Euro Bankers yet "more, more, more" gifts and shiny prezzies (shame about the recession everyone else is having, ho hum!) 

Yes 'News' circulated yesterday our propped-up gambling junkie zombie Bankers pigged-out on 260bn Euros of free money at the ECB's open trough for bleating incontinent little piggies... so much for journalistic pride in the accuracy of their reporting and integrity of their sources (they doublechecked their numbers no doubt too!)... they were only 100% friggin percent out on this one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

.....the 'New' figure reported in the FT today is 489 BILLION of free money (don't know about you but i have to work for money, where was my ECB Crimbo Bonanza Giveaway?!!)

If you thought Eurozone bankers balance sheets didn't balance and were ever so slightly a fraud you now have 500 Billion of in-your-face proof. About half the annual GDP of the UK has just disappeared up Eurozone bankers rectums in under a week... their stress-test passed fraudulent balance sheets are about as trusty and accurate as a Ben Bernanke statement on transparency at The Fed

ie. bank balances sheets are absolute and complete ECB and auditor-assisted BS (lies)

Happy Christmas you lying gambling junkies (Bwankers)... socialism ensures you get gifts from the State and everyone else gets their money and savings raped and left with scraps ..on Animal Farm some pigs were 'more equal' than others 

New Years Resolution (Revolution?) : Don't feed the suckers, they've had way too much luxurious living for way too long.. Stop Paying Your Taxes.

..and because these Turkeys won't vote for Christmas (so get your chopper out;)

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