Santa Week

And this time I'm talking about the real thing, not General Jim in Connecticut. Let's get the week started on the right foot by sending a little cheer to our Canadian turdites.

Just a quick update this morning as not much has changed since Friday. In gold, it's quite clear that The Forces of Darkness and Evil would like to see gold stay under $1600 for a while longer. The CoT survey is tomorrow and it covers the period that begins with the beatdown day of last Wednesday. Though we clearly saw some bank short-covering late last week, something tells me that they'll want to cover more of their tracks before the close tomorrow. Therefore, let's see if they hold gold down for most of the day today before relenting. Tomorrow could/should be a "Happy Tuesday" as the EE covers and new spec buyers join the fray.

paper_12-19amgold.jpg

Silver seems to be fighting a different battle. It seems to me that margins are now so high that a great deal of spec long buying has been removed from the market. Well, maybe not "removed". Let's just say that with margins so high, you can get a much bigger bang for your buck by playing in other sandboxes. This lack of spec buyers is affecting momentum and is making it very difficult for silver to sustain a rally. Uncle Ted is almost screaming about how bullish the CoT picture is in silver and I'm sure he's right. He's studied the silver market a lot longer than I have. However, without buyers, silver isn't going to be heading anywhere very quickly. I fear that silver is simply going to churn along with a negative bias for a while as JPM attempts to extricate themselves from their short position that, sooner or later, the CFTC might actually force them to lessen. I still like the idea that silver found a pretty good bottom last week but, at the end of the day, that doesn't mean much. Silver must be watched closely for further weakness. Hopefully, it holds the 28.60-80 area today and then finally rebounds through $30 tomorrow or later this week.

paper_12-19amsilv.jpg

ZH has a couple of stories that merit your attention. First, this article has some interesting technical information:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/gld-technicals

Next, you should probably read this but I have to admit, I saw the title and thought: Well, duh. What's next, a TungstenmanSachs research report verifying that the iphone has killed the Blackberry? How about a lengthy missive on whether or not asparagus makes your piss stink?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/did-gld-and-other-gold-etfs-kill-gold-stocks

And lastly, a moment of silence for one of the world's last, remaining Stalinist dictators. Nah, screw that. The little dwarf tyrant is dead and the world is better off without him. There will be, however, some geo-political repercussions, summarized here by the media arm of The Mossad:

http://www.debka.com/article/21583/

By the way, debka also reported over the weekend that Turkish leader, Erdogan, is suffering from colorectal cancer. Not sure how that might affect the MENA calculus but, if true, it's certainly an interesting development.

OK, that's all for now. I'll have more for you later today. TF

200 Comments

onewileyz's picture

first

FIRST!

TPaine's picture

Take off, eh? First, you

Take off, eh? First, you hosers!

(sorry couldn't resist...)

Edit: boo...  :(

Dr Jerome's picture

I love the Mail carrier these days...

I feel better about things today already.

Let's all take advantage of low prices as the Fed and TBTF banks are holding down AU and AG prices to keep their fiat system from looking as bad as it is. Their actions are a gift to all of us. Buy this stuff while it is artificially cheap.

Silver is especially on sale at 80% off! It may get cheaper, but will we be able to find it? One of our colleagues here has wisely advised us to buy incrementally all the way down (or up). I would love to load the truck with $19 silver or $1200 gold, but will I be able to get it?

It is available now.

I have not been too adept at buying the dip, but I have no regrets paying $1790 for this little bar two weeks ago. I sleep well at night. 

Shill, and others,

BAC at 4 something? Am I correct that it will be excluded from the DOW if it stays below 5 for a period of time? and that if the DOW kicks them out, then various retirement and other funds have to ditch them?

What are all this hyperlinks to ads in my post? Is that from adware on my own computer?

¤'s picture

If you snooze...

...you lose.  Keep up on your news!

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3172/daily-dphaze-news-machine

TF...Thanks for the update and upbeat tempo  smiley

TheSilverJournal.com's picture

Media and Gov. Vs. Gold

That Reuters article about the 20 hedge fund managers concluding gold is going to go down was seriously EVERYWHERE. Sommmebody must really want that gold price to go down.

TheSilverJournal.com

firstsilver's picture

Mr Christmas list

Santa, if it's not too late, can I have ....

1) Some apparent resolution in Europe, so we can stop the daily news whipsaw of the problem is solved, no it's not, yes it is, no it's not. (Of course, Santa, I understand even if it supposedly is solved, it isn't, but it gives the investment lemmings comfort).

2) Understanding to pass around to my friends and acquaintances that the U.S. is Europe on steroids when it comes to debt burdens, we're just not in the spotlight. Yet!

3) A prosperous and happy new year for all residents of Turdville.

BASEBALL 13's picture

Gold Price

Are TPTB smashing down the gold price in the paper market in order to flush out the naive (paper) gold investor, while covering their shorts and going long physical? If so, this would be in line with a media blitz decrying gold as a bubble while is bursting. 

I have read that central banks have been net BUYERs of physical since 2010. Anyone have any more recent numbers? 

Good Day to all and have a great Christmas week!

BB13

Shill's picture

ECB Chief Mario Draghi Pours

ECB Chief Mario Draghi Pours Cold Water On The Latest Bailout Dreams In Europe

ECB chief Mario Draghi still believes in fairies -- the confidence fairy that is.

FT: Coming to the fiscal pact, what is your answer to those who say there is excessive concentration on budgetary rigour at the expense of competitiveness and growth and that actually what is being created is a “stagnation and austerity union”?

MD: The answer is that they are right and wrong at the same time. They are right because there can’t be any sustainable economy without growth and competitiveness and job creation. They are wrong if they think that there is a trade-off between the two. There’s no trade-off between fiscal austerity, and growth and competitiveness. I would not dispute that fiscal consolidation leads to a contraction in the short run, but then you have to ask yourself: what can you do to mitigate this?

spotgoldprice's picture

Not been here for a while...

And some muppets still feel the need to do this amazingly annoying "FIRST!" thing.....

Is it only me who gets an irresistible urge to hunt down whoever posted "FIRST" and beat the living crap out of them for being such an annoying piece of shit??

/rant over

Bay of Pigs's picture

Draghi

is full of crap. That makes no sense whatsoever. No trade off? LOL.

All we need to know is that he a former Goldman Sachs guy. You know what master he serves.

Turd Ferguson's picture

I think it's quite clear that

MODERATOR

I think it's quite clear that 1600 is being vigorously defended.

Shill's picture

(No subject)

Maryann's picture

Christmas List?

Thanks TF!!

Well, I have asked for canning supplies for Christmas so I won't have to borrow my friends anymore.  Just wondering if anyone else is crazy like me and asking for prepping items? : )

Dr. Jerome, that's a beauty.  My kiddo's getting silver in his stocking and I'm hoping to get him hooked on a little junk silver.  

Bullets Beans Bullion's picture

The Silver Rush at MF

The Silver Rush at MF Global

 
It’s one thing for $1.2 billion to vanish into thin air through a series of complex trades, the well-publicized phenomenon at bankrupt MF Global. It’s something else for a bar of silver stashed in a vault to instantly shrink in size by more than 25%.

That, in essence, is what’s happening to investors whose bars of silver and gold were held through accounts with MF Global.

The trustee overseeing the liquidation of the failed brokerage has proposed dumping all remaining customer assets—gold, silver, cash, options, futures and commodities—into a single pool that would pay customers only 72% of the value of their holdings. In other words, while traders already may have paid the full price for delivery of specific bars of gold or silver—and hold “warehouse receipts” to prove it—they’ll have to forfeit 28% of the value.

Beez's picture

@maryann careful giving junk silver to kids

While my sister and her husband were on vacation, my 12 yo nephew bought he and his friend $690 big macs with junk silver. You are safer giving generic rounds to kids.

Shill's picture

Senator Harry Reid Moves To

Senator Harry Reid Moves To Approve PROTECT IP And Begin Censoring The Internet | Techdirt

HARRY REID IS AN ENEMY OF THE STATE AND AN ENEMY COMBATANT AGINST THE US CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA! AND SHOULD BE ARRESTED FOR TREASON!

NW VIEW's picture

THREE FESTIVALS

We just passed through thanksgiving last month.  It is our favorite American holiday.  We have our yearly feast with all the goodies and the twelve,  (My 12 gifts  of Christmas), of us ate , played games, watched games and spoke of our thankfulness.  So now we have Mr. T.F. twelve days of Christmas , a time for many of gifts and giving.  The majority of the nations of this world will not celebrate the bounty that we have received.  The so-called "Arab Spring" nations have neither turkey nor gifts under the tree and have missed the real meaning of both.

We have reflected on the O.T. story of the Passover long ago in Egypt.  Those who gathered behind closed doors on that day were also fearful of the soon coming events that could not be altered.  This board has listed many good ways to be prepared and let us remember to also be "covered" so these horrible days that are coming will pass over us.  

Bay of Pigs's picture

Ted Butler

His latest...looks like the crooks are still at it. GLD is no better. Both are complete Bankster frauds, IMO.

SLV Short Position Update

Theodore Butler
December 19, 2011 - 8:02am
FacebookTwitterForwardPrint

The latest short position report for stocks was released earlier in the week for positions held as of Nov 30. This was the report that I had speculated would show a decline in the short position of SLV, the big silver Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). Contrary to my expectations, the short position for SLV increased by more than 2.2 million shares to 25.2 million shares. This represents almost 25 million ounces of silver. http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=slv&submit=Short+Quote%99

http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/slv-short-position-update

Shill's picture

Looks like no news is bad

Looks like no news is bad news now. Draghi is droning on in Brussels, sounding like a losing team's coach at half time.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/8965011/Debt-crisis-live.html

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

@ spotgoldprice

Be sure you beat the crap out of Turd, too- he has been known to put up a new post then immediately log on and post "first!". Or you could just take a deep breath and scroll past. Either way.

SRSrocco's picture

GOLD-ILOCKS & The Three Bears + 1

THE PAPER GOLD/SILVER BEARS IN A BULLS SKIN MISLEAD THE PUBLIC

Peter Grandich just made a $1 million bet with Dennis Gartman, Jon Nadler, and Jeff Christian that gold would see $2,000 before $1,000.  No one took the bet.  There is another Bear I would like to add to that list.  His name is Ned Schmidt.  Ned's articles and interviews are posted on Financial Sense.  Ned has been pushing Rhodium over Silver since the summer of 2010.   His website proudly displays his Bearish call for silver to hit $16 an ounce.  I recently sent this chart I put together to his email address:

Ned's RHODIUM THOUGHTS 6/18/10

Silver = $17.98

Gold = $1,217.50

Rhodium = $2,438

Chart to right is ratio of price of Rh to Au. High level of speculation has pushed $Gold to short-term over valued level. That action has depressed the ratio Rh/Au to an extreme. The combination of what we are observing in these two charts suggests that investor with large positions in Gold might benefit from diversifying into Rhodium.

$Rh should be bought. We would not be buying Au at the present time.

Ned's GOLD THOUGHTS 10/29/10

Silver = $21.87

Gold = $1,307.50

Rhodium = $2,155

 When the dollar rally begins, not if, $Gold will join in the move. Downside risk is to US$675. Dollar denominated investors should not be buying Gold at this time. Euro based investors may be the only ones facing an opportunity, given the massive over valuation of the Euro. Could we see the Euro at US$1.30 or less by Christmas? Possibly.

Silver is perhaps far more risky given the $Gold situation. Silver investing has evolved from investing in an undervalued asset to a near religious experience. Fantasies over Silver must somehow come to deal with the rising surplus of Silver production. Sometime in 2012 a shortage of U-Store-It storage lockers may develop as producers seek somewhere to put all of the Silver coming out of the ground. Everyone owning a shovel is now digging for Silver.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

TODAY

Silver = $28.88

Gold = $1,592

Rhodium = $1,350

Here we can see that Ned has been knocking gold and silver down for quite some time.  How investors still listen to him or the other 3 Bears is beyond me.

Smiddywesson's picture

Central Banks buying

I have read that central banks have been net BUYERs of physical since 2010. Anyone have any more recent numbers? 

Bball, we know central banks everywhere, all at the same time, started to buy gold.  We also know that at least some central banks routinely lie about their acquisitions (China, Saudi Arabia, ect.).  So we can only trust our eyes and ears and watch the price.  Somebody drove up pm prices for that last 20 years (20% per year!!!) in the face of tremendous manipulation.  This was a period during which the paper gold ETFs were created, and the price still appreciated!  It sure wasn't you or me that created these price gains, and more telling still, the appreciation has stayed on track at 20% per year.

Some central banks and their minions have been buying since sometime after 2002.  Bernake laid out the plan in his 11/21/2002 helicopter speech in which he said the Fed can do five things to combat deflation, four of which he has done, and the fifth is to mirror FDR's revaluation of gold and devaluation of the dollar.  (He didn't go into the mechanics of doing so).  He would not have made that speech if they were planning this at that time.  My guess is they began buying around 2003 when the economy stalled and we had to drop interest rates.  It sounds like a conspiracy, but planning for a rainy day you know is coming isn't that far fetched if you intend to remain in power.  

My guess would be the Fed, the ECB, and their cronies have been buying gold since 2003, and they let the lesser central banks in on the plan after the collapse in 2007.  Since that time, I believe they have been selling gold to these banks in preparation of restarting the system.  If these other central bankers don't play ball, they don't get the cheap gold.  (kind of funny only Chavez will make waves huh?  Would you leave YOUR gold in NY if you weren't forced to?)  That's why you see panicked buying overseas and not by the Fed and the ECB.  That's why they will tell you they bought but not who they bought the gold from.  It came out of the markets over the course of the last decade and is moving from the Fed and Treasury to our trading partners in preparation of the Great Reset.  That's how they intend to stay in power when the system collapses.  That's why there are no audits.  That's why there hasn't been helicopter drops of money yet.  When everything's in place, the banks will take a holiday, gold will take center stage, the printers start in earnest, and anyone without gold will take a haircut.  It is completely naive to think that Bernanke hasn't printed because of political pressure.  The banks OWN Congress.  He will print when all the chess pieces are in place.

This is predicated on the Bernak's own words.  Look them up, it's an easy read and very interesting.  If this is all wrong, and there is no plan to reset the system, then the answer is still PMs.  Either way, we will be the only winners.

Mammoth's picture

Another One Bites the Dust

Despite all of the negativity surrounding Kim Jong II, North Korea’s ‘Dear Leader’ always had his people’s best interests as his first priority.  Here is a photo of him at North Korea’s Treasury, inspecting his country’s Gold supply.

Oops – never mind – that is a shot of him examining bars of soap at a soap factory.  Duh.

beardeus's picture

Burglar makes off with rare

Burglar makes off with rare coins, silver bars and $80,000 in cash from Sedona residence

http://www.dcourier.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubSectionID=1&ArticleID=101196

And I've been depressed since yesterday because my 1995 Geo took a dump. :/

Smiddywesson's picture

ps

A snippet from Wiki:

On September 2, 2010, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke was asked by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission what books or academic papers he would recommend to understand the financial crisis of 2007–2010. The only book that Bernanke recommended was Lords of Finance.[6]

The epilogue of the Lords of Finance discusses how revaluing gold and devaluing the dollar, combined with aggressive prining, saved the US economy and directly resulted in rising prices and increases in manufacturing, employment, and growth.   This is Bernanke's favorite book, the one he said he was meant to write but never got around to it, and he told us clearly in his helicopter speech he would follow the same game plan.  He has been thinking about this long before 2002, and was, no doubt, planning with Greenspan on how to counter what he knew was coming.  The issue in the 20s was unpayable debt.  The issue today is unpayable debt.  The answer is devaluation of the currency, so they have to kick the can long enough to put something in place to devalue against.  That something is gold, which will be revalued just like they did in the 30s.

beardeus's picture

*MUST WATCH!

Shill's picture

Eldorado Gold to buy European

Smiddywesson's picture

Lest we forget

Does anyone really believe Greenspan suddenly became enamored of gold after his departure from the Fed, or more likely, gold has been Plan B all along.  This little reminder from January, 2011 to cheer you up when the bears have raked your hides.

 

Stunner: Gold Standard Fully Supported By... Alan Greenspan!?

 
Tyler Durden's picture
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The Green Manalishi's picture

This proves Ben Bernanke is going for Hyperinflation

Ben Bernanke using Hyperinflation to pay off the mortgage.

http://blogs.reuters.com/james-saft/2011/12/15/bernanke-and-87-year-olds-with-mortgages/

Bernanke, who turned 58 this week, refinanced his mortgage in September, less than two years after the last time he refinanced, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, citing sources and public records.

Bernanke owes $672,000 on his house, about 80 percent of its appraised value. The mortgage has a 30-year term, implying that repayments are fixed and that it likely carries an interest rate of about 4 percent.

Katie Rose's picture

I don't care

I don't care what the charts are showing, what the trusted prognosticators are saying, what my younger Sister is saying! (She says I'm nuts...)

Silver has been money for thousands of years. It has had a value of 17 silver to 1 gold of equal weight. The ratios today are absurd.

As the Middle Class collapses in this country and around the world, there are still folks smart enough to see what is happening. And they just may not be able to purchase an oz of gold, but they can pony up $100 for three ozs of silver. 

It may take a year, it may take five years, or even ten, but we will see history repeating itself.

Before England forced China and India onto the gold standard, both used silver as their money. Central and South America used silver, as did Mexico. Both the US and Europe has silver coins.

I believe that the ratios and pricing today are a gift. 

I'm not discouraged one little bit. I'm thrilled that with my meager funds I can still add to my little stash.

All of us buying today will be very grateful we did!

So the more gloomy the market gets, the more excited I get. 

History is a wonderful teacher, and history is on our side.

End of rant...

And yes, my little Sister is getting silver for Christmas from me. wink

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