Well...

...that was interesting, wasn't it? A long and crazy day but I do have a few things to add.

First of all, I thought I should re-post this in case you missed it earlier. Thank you to "Pining" for the fantastic piece of Photoshop art:

large_boatscene.jpg

My two favorite parts are Atlee giving everyone the finger and the hot chick jumping off the bow.

In case you missed the updated charts I posted at about 4:00, here they are again. I can re-use them because prices haven't changed much in the time since. However, I have a feeling that that's about to change.

paper_12-14pmgold_0.jpgpaper_12-14pmsilv_0.jpg

You may have seen this earlier at ZH. Its a new technical summary from Citi. In it, they claim that gold should bottom at around 1550 but still trade to around 2300 next year. Gee...where have I heard that before???

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/citi-predicts-gold-3400-next-two-years

ZH also posted the stock market section of the same Citi report. It included this vehwy scawey chawt. Yikes!

large_citi_djia_1.jpg

Next....Never fear, the CFTC is here! What a Cartoon Corral these morons are...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/14/us-mfglobal-cftc-idUSTRE7BD20L20111214

Ole Eric King was hard at work during the downdraft today. First, he interviewed Santa and then he tracked down Egon von Greyerz. Both will be required listening when they are finally posted in their entirety. Until then, here are links to partial transcripts:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Jim_Sinclair_-_Why_Gold_Was_Smashed_Today_%26_Whats_Next.html

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_%26_Social_Unrest.html

Jeff Nielson has chimed in with a terrific column that discusses negative lease rates and Libyan gold. I find all of the attention today to negative lease rates rather interesting as I'm pretty sure TFMR was this first place to notice them and warn of impending doom last week. Not that that's any great honor. It's kind of like being the first White Star lookout to have seen the iceberg.

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=23385:the-bankers-new-gold&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131

Lastly, just a word or two about today's open interest numbers. (Remember, the numbers we got today reflect the changes from yesterday.) Two very important items.

  • The Feb11 OI only fell by about 500 contracts. When added to the 1500 contract decline of Monday, Feb11 OI is only down 2000 contracts while Feb11 gold is down about $53. I would have expected a much greater drop in OI. What this confirms for me is that there are very few human holders of Feb11 contracts. Almost all of the Feb11 contract holders are WOPR on one side and the sub-human EE on the other. If this is true, the likelihood of finding a bottom near 1550-1560 just increased quite a bit. What I'm driving at is: I feared that the MFGRAP would permanently scare away buyers of paper Comex contracts. However, if the spec long position is almost entirely WOPRs, they'll simply flip back over to "buy mode" as soon as the technical picture improves. IF gold bottoms as I hope, we should soon be able to buy paper with confidence and expect a handsome rally.
  • Dec11 gold continues to get new open interest. We added 137 brand new contracts yesterday...all in the face of a selloff? When added to Monday's gains, we've got almost 650 new contracts this week! That's amazing!! There is clearly an effort afoot to jump the queue and get some gold delivered this month and not wait for February. No, I don't think that the gold Comex will collapse from the weight of this. Not this month, at least. However, this potentially speaks volumes about the utter lack of bulk, physical gold available in the world. Very, very interesting and must be watched.

OK, that's all for now. Be on the lookout for some sharp volatility overnight and tomorrow as the metals search for a bottom. Let's see how today's lows hold up and keep our fingers crossed. Regardless, keep the faith and be happy. You have chosen to sock away savings in real, true money. Do not be discouraged by the blatant and shameful price manipulation tactics of The Cartel. The precious metals are going to have extraordinarily strong, fiat-relative performance in 2012. Soon, the pain of today will be long since forgotten.

TF

228 Comments

BoblovesHawaii's picture

GDX follow up

http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2011/12/gdx-follow-up.html

Get your shopping list to jump on some miners for a few days.

Louie's picture

@ Shill- Trillion dollar lawsuit

I am not sure about this lawsuit.  CA Lawyer did a good post where he says the lawyers involved are reputable and that they would not file such a suit unless there was something more than unconfirmed rumors as to the facts. 

I have been following this ever since the story broke.  There are only 2 possible conclusions.  Either the bonds were forgeries (In which case, why did they let the guys go with no charges?) or they were the real deal (In which case you have to ask which country is trying to dump US bonds on the sly and why are they dumping them?)

In either case, there has certainly been a lack of media interest in A) One of the largest counterfeiting cases in history, or B) There is a lack of interest in one of the largest international financial stories in the last 5 years. 

Shill's picture

How Hedge Funds Are

How Hedge Funds Are Exploiting the Euro Crisis

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/12/15/How-Hedge-Funds-Are-Exploiting-the-Euro-Crisis.aspx#page1

According to a fixed income money manager who requested anonymity, many hedge funds are now taking the position that a default will occur. They’re buying derivative instruments called credit default swaps (CDS), or an insurance policy that banks and money managers offer for debt. If a country is unable to pay a debt, banks then pay the hedge fund an insurance payout.

....

As long as banks are willing to offer insurance on European debt – meaning they believe that this crisis will be solved -- hedge funds can drive up the price of bonds, making it harder and harder for Greece to pay its debt. (If Greece does fail, large banks will suffer losses, but will have their bets in favor of Greece hedged elsewhere.

Fortinbras's picture

@ Boardwalk...

I would agree with you, if we were following the law.

This new law is not talking about natural disasters, civil disobedience or even riots... all of which would fall under the things you said.

This new law is classifying things and people, at the discretion of whoever is in charge at the time, as acts of war and enemies.

That is far, far different than what you are talking about.

As for American soldiers firing on citizens... it's already happened several times in our history.  While I do not think it is PROBABLE, you'd be a fool to not think it is POSSIBLE or that it hasn't happened before, as recently as the 1990's let alone Kent State, Detroit riots in 1967 or that Civil War thingy we had 150 years ago.

Boardwalk's picture

Fort

Points taken regarding the law vs. classifying people, things.  

There is a distinction to be made between the National Guard (Kent State, Detroit) and the US Army.

Dr Jerome's picture

Tyler's dream: an interpretation

Tyler,
Since you shared your dream publicly, I take it as meant for the whole group here. After my interpretation, I have some thoughts below for those who have not considered the possibility that dreams can be significant.
------
The party is this (and other) internet sites where we spend our time interacting with others. Summoned? Perhaps none of us here came by chance. Reading list? We all had to get some education (must read books and articles) about economic reality (the red pill) to grasp the stream of conversation here. 
I think many of us feel ike we are alone and struggle with negativity in real life.
We are all becoming teachers.
As time passes here, the situation in the world seems to deteriorates but we have few clear answers on what to do next, but we know there is a purpose. The police represent the old paradigm, the old way of thinking. Some of us have given up and tried to go back to life before our economic education and have left the "party." Especially after the disheartening metals smackdowns.
Back of a truck: you are headed somewhere but not in control. The helmet represents beliefs that are protecting your mind. But you end up in a new place that seems like a refuge, but it is not safe. Some people recognize it but most do not. The farm represents the provision and  bounty that we hope our metals will provide, but someone else is driving the truck--perhaps the EE who controls the prices currently. Just having metals and thinking you are safe may be insufficient. Many here are preparing in multiple ways--fleeing the round up. Perhaps the round up represents a confiscation event.
Girl on the street: The dream itself is a metaphor for this virtual world where we spend so much time. We are in a sense dreaming as we return to this blog community and interract. The relationships here are real, but not tangible.
The hotel is a place where people temporarily reside (this world?). You are still seeking a teacher to explain it all. The miniature master hooked up to a machine. Hooked up online to a computer? Minature because we only see words and small images of those who teach us? Inhaling the dream... we take in spiritual messages spiritually. "Spirit" means breath. those reading the dream and this and other interpretations will just "get it." It is spiritual, metaphysical. Something resonates withing and you know you have grasped the meaning.  He really is a normal sized person when he stands up. We alre all normal people who interract here. The beard is a symbol of his experience and wisdom.
"You have to fight and protect the people."   Here is the key even in the dream. I think this one is literal.
The holographic battle symbolizes a serious "war" in the minds and hearts of people. The sword is truth --understanding and knowledge of what is really going on. We all feel immature when we are in a new realm and consider taking up a tool of that realm for the first time.  Yes, you have the sword as do many of us. You, and the rest of us have a responsibility to use the truth we have to lead the struggle against what is happening to our world. 
 
Central message: I believe your dream illuminates the nature of where we all are--a community that is learning and must  realize that things are getting serious, people are in danger, and that we  must all reach out, take the sword, and help educate our friends, family and neighbors to help them survive what is coming. It will be serious--hence the strong reaction you have to it.
-------
I am certain that others on this blog have a fair sense of what this dream means. Please illuminate us with whatever you have received. My interpretation above is probably partial and may have a few mistakes. I'll stand by the central message though.
Some of our colleagues may not put much stock in dreams, but I ask you to consider a few things:
Many dreams are just our subconscious trying towork out our day to day problems. Some dreams sybolically represent large issues in our lives, like a dream of a scary basement representing bad memories form our childhood. On occasion, for those who listen, God sends us messages in dreams. Not having a prejudice or bias toward any human language, God communicates to us in symbolic language-- symbols that are a blend of universal human experience and cultural interpretations. I never take a dream literally.
They are typically in color, quite vivid, usually brief and to the point. this sounds like one  of those dreams. These type often come in the early morning. The more we listen, the more God "talks." Lucid dreaming (you are aware you are dreming and almost half awake) is a skill that one can develop as you begin to take dreams seriously. I have had a few like this. They are expremely significant dreams.
Dreams are always (nearly enough) symbolic, not literal. This does get metaphysical and I do not apologize for that. Dreams are the main method that those in the spirit world communicate with humans. I am a Christian. But I do not fully grasp the mysterious and bizarre nature of the spirit world, so I allow for such experiences from other perspectives and cultures. In addition to being a spiritual person, I was fully educated at four of our nation's top universities with daily mentoring from notable leaders in my field of communication & rhetoric. My academic publication record attests to their good training. You would be surprised at how many of our world's top minds are interested in metaphysical phenomena.  Its revealing that when you rise above a certain level in academia you find very few pure atheists, lots of agnostics, and many who take their religion seriously. Five years ago, my wife an I took a series of four dream interpretation classes in person from Streams Ministries.  My wife attended a week long seminar at their center in NH and became "certified." I did not have time for that, so we work together on interpreting. I seem to have a "gift." Meaning just comes to me. My wife knows the dream symbol dictionaries. 
 
murphy's picture

@Louie

Don't know if you got a chance to read these two links in the article from JS Kim. Forgeries don't make sense imo.

In these two articles, “The Underground Investor” analyzed the evidence and clearly established how strange this whole story really was:

http://www.theundergroundinvestor.com/2009/07/possible-links-to-a-coming-bank-holiday-in-the-ongoing-134-5-billion-bearer-bond-mystery/

Boardwalk's picture

Shill

Here's CaliLawyer's first take on the bond fraud story and lawsuit.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/103359#comment-103359

Fortinbras's picture

@ Boardwalk...

In Detroit, the 82d Airborne was deployed and the Michigan NG was federalized.  Both engaged in firefights.  17 NG died, 3 82d.

In 90's, and I hate to open this can of worms, but Army was directly involved in Waco.

MUDbone's picture

Embry

EBR Mod 0's picture

Tyler

1 Thessalonians 5

my thoughts, now I can continue reading next posts, thanks

 

Snaws's picture

PhD's and MD's are some of

PhD's and MD's are some of the most clueless people you can find. Don't ever confuse talking like a know it all with having a clue. 

NW VIEW's picture

@TYLER

Joel 2:28 : "And afterward I will pour out My Spirit upon all flesh; and your sons and your daughters shall prophesy, your old men shall dream dreams, your young men shall see visions".  That is today, and if we look to the past, we need to find a Daniel to give the correct interpretation .   

Shill's picture

We might even cross Dow

We might even cross Dow 12,000 today! A MAJOR MARKET MILESTONE! Once-in-a-lifetime event!

Absolutely nothing to see here at all. Dollar is sill up and I am still short.

GoldMania3000's picture

embry

$60 silver in a couple of months.  I think we need some money printing, he's been saying this all throughout the year and while I respect all the KINGWORLD news folks the past year has demonstrated that some of the calls are more hopeful vs. realistic.   will will get there, but not until we get a weaker dollar.  or the paper markets collapse.   These are great great buying opportunities.

SuperLeggera's picture

Dollar Short-Squeeze

Gold, silver, crude, euro and most commodities may come under heavier selling pressure if the short squeeze in the dollar continues.

I'm not a financial wizard, but if that index goes above 81...what happens?  We're not yet into panic buying levels.

Could we be looking at gold under $1500?  Since I'm too broke to BTFD, and too broke not to sell some of my diminutive stack...God, I hope not.

Fortinbras's picture

@Shill re: "I am still short"

Short the dollar?  Can I ask why, and I'm not jabbing you or being rhetorical, I'm trying to gain insight because I have just enough knowledge at this point to think I'm getting pretty good which means I'm an idiot!

I am short a lot of things right now, but actually went long on the dollar yesterday.  It doesn't mean I think the dollar won't eventually tank as well, but why fight what we can see happening right in front of us?  I'm in the camp that believes there will be a deflationary push down for the next 6 months anyway, so why wouldn't I be long the dollar during that period not even so much as a hedge on my stack, but to generate more cash to buy more stuff?  I mean I obviously believe in gold and silver, but I bought SLV puts the other day as well as both gold and silver inverse ETFs because there is no reason to fight these moves on principle or we'll lose... I'm trying to fight them with my brain now, not my emotion.  Make sense?

And oh, if you didn't mean that you were short the dollar or are way OTM on a longer time scale, then winknever mind! 

Shill's picture

Fortinbras I am not short the

Fortinbras I am not short the dollar, just a few stocks.

IE: I am still short. I think my comment made it sound like I was short the buck, this is not the case.

33 and a turd's picture

deja vu (give or take 5 cents)

Silver today

Silver this day last year

Fortinbras's picture

@ Shill... :)

eom

Shill's picture

Down we go...nice fake out.

Down we go...nice fake out. Must ot let the T's go over 2%...comical this market has become.

tmosley's picture

What kind of fool thinks that

What kind of fool thinks that the spot price, which is set by a bankrupt exchange, is going to rise?

BTFDYFI.

foxenburg's picture

@ fortinbras re Detroit casualties

Can you please supply a link to these numbers?

single6's picture

Santa on kwn

He stated that long
Long time buyers of gold/ Friends....are being tested like never before and want to leave.......my question is where the hell will they go and why would they leave? What am I missing here?

Last Rebel's picture

@Fort, See PM box.

@Fort,

See PM box.

BoblovesHawaii's picture

GORO and potential short squeeze

murphy's picture

Short dollar squeeze

From Ackerman. I don't particularly like all he says and of course he's selling his product but still worth the read.

A Devastating Dollar Short-Squeeze Is Gathering Steam

by Rick Ackerman on December 15, 2011 3:06 am GMT · 11 comments

The Dollar Index has blasted through key resistance at 80, threatening to “unwind” carry-traders who borrowed dollars for next to nothing in order to speculate on other assets. Chief among those assets is gold, which got savaged yesterday in a $100 selloff that seems hell-bent on testing September’s key low. The low lies at 1543, basis the Comex February contract, but we doubt that it will hold. In fact, earlier, we had told subscribers there was a 60% chance that February Gold was about to dive to at least 1459, a technical target derived from our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method.  We shall see. In any event, gold and silver –  as well as crude oil, the euro and the commodities complex– will come under heavy selling pressure if the short-squeeze on the dollar continues. If you’d like access our specific price targets for all of these trading vehicles in the days ahead, click here for a free trial to Rick’s Picks.

Concerning the U.S. dollar’s powerful surge, although it was driven initially by fears over the possible collapse of Europe’s financial house of cards, the rally has taken a life of its own that is being driven by dollar short-covering. The buying is not yet at panic levels, but a surge will be impossible to stop once if it picks up any more speed. Although the central banks can affect the markets for a short while with talk of bailouts, all of them acting together are puny relative to the quadrillion-dollar juggernaut that is about to fuel an unwind of the dollar carry-trade. Over the years, we’ve written many times about this potential Mother of All Short Squeezes. The paradox was, and is, that the dollar is intrinsically worthless, a form of debt rather than money. In point of fact, as we have pointed out here numerous times, the $20 bills in your wallet are worth no more, fundamentally, than the $1 bills.  Even so, that’s not going to help the Masters of the Universe who borrowed dollars promiscuously in order to leverage them to the sky.

Threat to Europe

The Next Hidden Pivot Seminar is Jan. 11th-12th.
Early-registrants save $50 before 12/31. Use code: 7D5629

From a technical standpoint, we’ve been expecting the NYBOT Dollar Index to hit a Hidden Pivot rally target at 81.11 and then back off. The surge is closing on that number now, up from around 75 in late October. But if the pivot resistance gives way easily — and especially if buyers re-energize the rally by pushing above the 81.44 peak recorded last November – the central banks and all those who are short dollars are in for some very rough sailing.  So will those who have been betting on a politically-induced rally in the euro. Our target for the March 2012 contract is 1.2556, and we expect it to hold. If not, the fragile credit edifice that has been holding Europe together is all but certain to crumble.

***

Turd Ferguson's picture

Greetings from Boxcar 837NJ6

MODERATOR

I'm going to be unavailable most of the morning as I am currently being transported to Detention Camp 3-B, somewhere in North Dakota. On the bright side, I hear its beautiful there this time of year.

Seriously, our children will ask us in a few years where we were when the NDAA of 2012 was passed. Why didn't we protest, they'll ask? How could you just stand idly by and let this happen, they'll wonder? After all the lies, you actually trusted your politicians when they took away the first six articles of the Bill of Rights?

On the PMs, there will be a test of yesterday's lows, either today or tomorrow. Maybe next week. Can't say when for sure just know that it's coming. Do not fear this test. How the metals respond will go a long way in determining whether or not we have made a low for the manufactured "correction" since September.

More as I can. Internet connection is spotty as we roll from town to town.

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