Preparing For The End...

...of the year. It certainly has been a wild one and we've still got a month to go. What's in store for us? Well, I'm prepared to hazard a guess.

On balance, it's been a pretty good year here in TurdLand. I figure I probably only batted about 60-70% on the day-to-day stuff but the long-term forecasts have been pretty solid. First there was this:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html

Followed by this:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/turds-bottom-2.html

Then there was this:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/1993/silver-44

And, finally, this:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2780/there-he-goes-again

Not that this is magic or that I'm anyone special. As I've often stated, predicting the future price of the precious metals is really quite simple. Once you accept that the precious metals are the most blatantly manipulated "market" on the face of the earth, predicting future price gets a lot easier. Then, when you factor in that gold has progressed a nearly perfect 20-25% each year since 2001, the crystal ball gets remarkably clear. So clear that even a Turd can read it.

You'll recall that gold finished 2010 at about $1435. Immediately thereafter, I began mentioning that gold was likely to trade toward $1750 sometime by late 2011. How could I make this case? Simple. 1435 + 22.5% = 1758. Sorry if that disappoints you but it really is that basic. As for 2012, why complicate matters? As you'll see below, I expect gold to finish 2011 somewhere in the neighborhood of $1800. From there, let's add another 25%. (I'm going for the upper end of the 20-25% range. As awareness grows, however, 25% may end up being a bit conservative.)

$1800 + 25% = $2250

Like this year, gold will probably trade higher than $2250 at some point in 2012. It will also see several, major corrections as The Cartel will still be in there, banging away. In the end, though, your stack will be worth a lot more again 12 months from now, of that you can be certain.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. We still have the month of December to deal with. First, a caveat. Regular readers have noticed that I've spent quite a bit of time recently discussing the current geo-political instability in the Middle East. Similar to the longer-term predictions recalled above, I'm about to give you another 4-6 week forecast. However, if Israel attacks Iran and/or NATO attacks Syria and/or Pakistan melts down and/or World War III and/or The Second Coming happens, all bets are off. Capiche?

OK, let's talk about gold first. Clearly, we received some extraordinarily bullish news this morning regarding gold. It is tempting to sit back now and say that the coast is clear and that you should buy with impunity. Well, as Lee Corso would say, "not so fast, my friend". Yes the fundos are still overwhelmingly strong and, yes the open interest numbers look quite compelling. Don't get ahead of yourself this month, though. Recent history has shown that The Cartel is not a big fan of late year rallies. In fact, both 2009 and 2010 held pretty lousy Decembers. Though I think we're in for a rally, I'm not looking for gold to go charging back to the old highs, at least not yet.

In the near term, it certainly appears that this latest "correction" is over. Having moved back through 1750 tonight, gold will likely continue higher until it encounters some pretty stout resistance in the area around 1765-1770. This coincides with the downward trendline from the highs of early September. That line served to contain the rally earlier this month and it will likely give gold trouble again. However, it has to give way sometime so I expect gold to break through that line, perhaps as soon as next week. From there, I expect gold to rally toward the top end of the channel that began way back at the lows of the financial crisis back in 2008. This would put gold somewhere near 1825-1840 by mid-month. From there, some year-end profit-taking kicks in and gold settles back to a 12/31/11 close somewhere right around $1800.

paper_11-30pmgoldw.jpgpaper_11-30pmgoldd.jpg

So what about silver? Frankly, silver is considerably more challenging. The fundamentals are extraordinarily positive but the desperate manipulation measures put into place this year by the criminal C/C/C (CME/Comex/ Cartel) are having a lasting impact on the futures market. And as long as the dastardly Comex paper silver price is used as the basis for the price of physical, movements in silver are going to be very difficult to forecast.

For now, silver appears stuck in a pennant-type range. I can see nothing on the near-term horizon that will cause it to break out. Once we get into 2012 and overt QE begins anew, silver will again be off to the races. Maybe then we will finally have enough physical investment demand to break the back of the evil C/C/C. Maybe. Until then, we're stuck.

paper_11-30pmsilv.jpg

So, there you go. If you are waiting for a consequential forecast such as "Turd's Bottom", I'm sorry to disappoint you. There's simply too much intervention/manipulation of all markets at the time being to confidently make such a forecast. Let's just get through this month, see where we finish 2011 and then make some plans for 2012. You can be certain that the new year will bring another set of remarkable runs in the PMs, so, be patient. Now is not the time to be going all-in. The next opportunity to do so will reveal itself soon. In the meantime, sit back and relax. Enjoy the holiday season. Maybe hit the company Christmas party. Spill some booze on your boss while simultaneously hitting on his wife. Silent Night, Auld Lang Syne and all that jazz. Then, get ready for an historic 2012.   TF

200 Comments

Puneet's picture

First

Good morninng Turd..Here in India..just woke up and thanks for this great post as always

TheGoodDoctor's picture

First?

Second. Watching the overnight. Nothing really so far.

¤'s picture

Thanks TF

You had me there for a second with that tease line.

Glad to see you in good spiritscool   

A drink sounds pretty good right about now.

ibegofthee's picture

jim beam and coke

goes good with all the news.  I guess I am officially part of the 22.5% club.  The end is beer but I'll stick to my Jim and coke.  Cheers

Cerote's picture

@Turd: Will we ever get to see

tungsten & molybdenum on the charts page?

Dr Durden's picture

How about an end of year contest for a BYH?

We haven't had one in like forevs.

Gold price on the COMEX close for 12/31/11?

Silver price?

Winner of each gets a BYH (Big Yellow Hat).

Woot!?

sixdollarsilver's picture

t'anks turd

Definitely in Dr. Durden

Monedas's picture

Where's Foley Trolly ?

Some got mad at him ! No, no and no ! That's what a Troll wants ! I had fun with him and gently kidded him a little and.....POOF.....he's gone ! Please leave the troll busting to the professionals ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad On Troll Patrol ! devil PS: I'm hoping our delayed October/November "Harvest's Done" Rally Will Happen In December ! Convert your bushels into trounces !

Fortinbras's picture

Where's TomL?

EOM

Eric Original's picture

The only thing bugging me

The only thing bugging me about today is how gold was clearly, and successfully capped at 1750 all day.  That is one highly manipulated chart.  Disturbing.

lairdwd's picture

Let's see

We'll have to see. The cartel is keeping gold pinned down - as we speak - at 1750. Hong Kong stock market is up 6%, silver is down 20 cents. Risk on trade was the king today, and silver couldn't break 33. Silver is going to trade with Doctor Copper. Also, after the last global central bank intervention, the market rallied for 1 day, and then tanked. Nobody believes this dollar liquidity rally is for real. As long as interest rates in the PIIGS are still spiraling out of control, this crisis is far from over. Downward, deflationary pressures are building.
 
Since the Fed leaked this swap liquidity on Monday, a lot of the upside action is already priced in.
Warren Peace's picture

Blood from a turnip

With the COT not showing many weak longs to flush, and with more and more printing worldwide, the physical demand should start driving prices higher in spite of all the ludicrous manipulation. In that case, I wouldn't wait too long before going 'all-in'.

However, if the cartel continues to force the paper prices down in the face of what surely is momentous demand, then..... maybe we will finally arrive at the day that the EE breaks their mechanism for good as the phys price and paper price go infinite inversion. In that case, maybe we get some awesome prices on phys from the dealers that are slow to separate from the fraudulent paper price fix...... only while supplies last, of course. Timing in that scenario will have to be impeccable.

So I think I'll keep a little cash on hand in case we get that separation. If not, and price leaves me behind, I'll just buy more preparedness stuff instead.

Prize Fighter's picture

Gold and silver aren't going

Gold and silver aren't going anywhere until those pesky gap-ups from Sunday night are filled.  Maybe for paper traders there is a market, but if you're looking to stack the real stuff I wouldn't buy until silver closes its $31 gap and gold at $1680. 

Remember this.  Because last time gold left a gap up in August at $1,666, it kept chugging all the way to $1900 before it double topped and finally filled 6 weeks later by "crashing" all the way to $1600.  That kind of action does nothing for stackers.  Waiting for the gap to fill does.  Mind the gap!

Tomorrow is my appointment with the Dept. of Agriculture to submit my CCW.  Supposed to have my permit 2-3 weeks later. cool

Also, a big thank you to QUESTION for recommending Efoodsdirect.com and their 30% off sale!  Got home late Monday after visiting the family for Thanksgiving and saw your post around midnight, when the sale was supposed to expire.  Did about an hours worth of research on them and the sale was still in effect.  So I pulled the trigger and now I'm up to 15 months of long term storage food.  Checked the next morning and the sale was over so thanks again Question!

Good luck traders, best wishes all...

iceman321's picture

I Love It When Bernanke Get's In His Helicopter!!!

Great material, and great website Mr. Turd.  Today felt so nice for the metals.

I think the helicopter has been launched, but the money will really fly down in 2012.

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/gold/gold-and-silver-gain-after-central-banks-launch-helicopters.html/

sixdollarsilver's picture

Beige Fed says...

Overall price increases remained subdued, and some cost pressures were reported to have eased.
 
Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas City noted a moderation in input cost pressures.
 
In Clevelandmanufacturers’ reports on changes in raw materials prices were mixed; the transportation sector noted 
higher prices for tires, parts, and equipment; and fuel prices exhibited some volatility.
 
Richmond reported that raw materials, retail, and services prices grew at a somewhat faster pace.
 
Restaurants in Kansas City expected higher menu prices due to rising food costs.
 
In Dallas, prices for new cars rose slightly, and staffing and legal services firms noted modest increases in billing rates, but natural gas prices remained low.
 
San Francisco reported a recent uptick in the prices for energy inputs, particularly oil, and for assorted food items at the retail level.
 
Atlanta noted that most businesses had limited ability to pass on increases in input prices from earlier in the year.
 
... there is subdued inflation ...
 
Lumpy's picture

Another question about PM's that puzzles me.

Why is there even an ounce of gold or silver available for me to buy if our Global financial system is in imminent danger?

Not all, but there could be a few Millionaires/Billionaires around the world who have accumulated all their wealth because they are GREEDY.   Now If I was good enough at the game of making lots of money I would probably have a basic understanding of where money comes from.  I would probably also understand what the term Fiat means. 

 I would understand that there is not a currency in the World backed by gold or anything else.  Unless of course, the promise to pay made by politicians means something to you.  Yet they continue to buy Government bonds.  I know that Greek, Italian, etc. bond rates are going up because of the risk......BUT  why would you put a single penny in any bond If you could buy physical Gold, Silver, Platinum, etc.

I'm talking about the extremely wealthy people of the World who have so much cash they could park it in PM's for years and not miss it. They could build their own private Fort Knox and fill it.  I know the price of Gold and Silver has risen 500%+ over the last 10 years.  However, I think that if we were really that close to the End Game there wouldn't be a single ounce to be had.

There is plenty of money out there to buy it all.   Why don't those greedy, rich, blue chip citizens of the planet buy it ALL?

The rich, as we know, are very well connected.  If we were truly screwed they would know it, and the PM's would not be available to us common folk like it is now.

Maybe they know when the economic conditions are right they could stomach a little write-down of government debt to keep thing rolling a bit longer.  Why not?  They'll be sitting pretty like always.  I guess the PM's will disappear right before that happens.

I'm sure the ultra wealthy also know paper PM's don't count.

OK, I'm done.

 

ewc58's picture

So great to hear a chartmaster like TF

say there's just no use in making predictions due to the level and intensity of manipulation/intervention. There! Simple!

I know about 50 other guys in the business who could take candor lessons from Turd right now.

Of course they'd lose all their paid subscribers if they just told the truth Turd just did here.

Good on you Turd. It may seem kinda obvious to you and to many of us here, but many other "professionals" still can't or won't admit same.

Big yes

Economical Disaster's picture

Re:Another question about PM's that puzzles...

I have talked to people that have BILLIONS of dollars. They are in another world all together. They know their business and thats about it. BELIEVE it or not. Wife's cousin has a jet, 25,000 sq ft home, 16,000 acres and 12 antique RARE cars. ( They are cheapskates) Talking to them about GOLD is like talking to an asteroid. It flies way over their head. They only know how to make money and lots of it. The world is not coming to an end for them

Lumpy's picture

@ Economical Disaster

I guess that doesn't surprise me.  I'm sure there are lots of rich folks just like them. 

I also think that there are more than enough people who get it, and have the means to grab it all.  It just makes me wonder how close or how far away we really are from the End Game.

2turdledoves's picture

When all else fails.....

BUY DONUTS

(RTTNews) - Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (KKD) reported third-quarter net income of $4.7 million or $0.07 per share, compared to $2.4 million or $0.03 per share in the prior year quarter.

Revenues for the quarter rose 9.4% to $98.71 million from $90.23 million in the year-ago quarter. Company same store sales rose 4.05%.

T's picture

interesting thoughts.

Interesting thoughts Lumpy.  Now  youre making me have to think some more,when I thought I was done.

Lots of interesting thoughts and bits of info out there these days. I just read  something yesterday about how one of the 'best' places to consider living now, in the USA, for a bunch of reasons....  youre gonna love this.... North Dakota.

thats right. lots of employment in the oil indistry. new banking system, oh this was it, they are thinking about  eliminating property taxes....  interesting  ideas from the last place in the USA you'd ever want to go live...and now,  its gonna become irresistable if they keep it up.

....I,I cant imagine living in North Dakota. Gawd, please dont make me go there......

clueless one's picture

@ Econ Disaster & Lumpy

same question here.

Not trying to upset anyone, but my mind wanders these days.  So if you have a stack, and manage to survive...who you gonna sell to??  The same folks that own the land and will have the cash to buy??  You think they'll trade productive Ag land for metal?  Seems like we're being played again....like one step behind.  Yeah, I know..."well, I'm smarter than you"..."I worked hard and saved my money, etc..."   hey, cool.  I'm not bitter.  I'm just trying to make sense of it.  It truly is what it is.  I wasn't brought up thinking that way...but God bless my folks, they did the best they could and I love them for it.

After all...the sheep that I am, bought into the idea of home ownership, only to be trapped.  Who's to say the PM game isn't the same thing to get the sheep out of the paper currency so THEY can go total electronic transaction on us?

They've already got the metal, are selling to the sheep, and buying the land with profits... while our hopes of a debt free life on an acre with a garden, enjoying life and family, are dwindling away...just a thought.  Just feels like I'm at the tail end of it...missing the boat, yet again.  Not looking for a handout, mind you.  Just a fair shake.  Worked since I dropped out at 16...haven't been unemployed, ever.  Of course, bought into the "gotta have it" scheme...my bad.  Oh well.

I mean, guys like Sprott, Schiff and Maloney...and a few others out there who remain nameless... they have tons, and are now the spokesmen for the PM rally.  Just seems a little strange, imho. 

I dunno... gonna be interesting to say the least.  At least I can sit and look at the metal, and while my fiat purchasing power drops, I can trade in metal to survive...I guess that's all I can ask for at this point.  I swear, I just want zero debt...I could care less about fast cars and a big house...

There's only 1 who can straighten this whole thing out...and if He comes, then metal, and wealth for that matter, mean nothing anyway.  One can only hope.

Be well y'all..

C1

Lumpy's picture

This video is well worth the time to watch.

This might have been posted before, but a great video for new Turdles.

ipreferPHYS's picture

Good point. But my guess would be that the ultra wealthy...

1.  May not believe in a rapid crash of the dollar/economy or a shortage of physical.  A rapid decline/Hyper inflation is still debatable, we could be in for a slow death seeing that the gov't/feds have complete control of the fiat and much of the market and investment firms.

2.  Have a line on the stock market and can greatly exceed returns on commodities

3.  Are more into other non-cash assets, like land....which, depending on how bad things get, could be better that gold.

4.  And some may just be clueless as to what is really going on. Getting all your news from the major networks, you get 10% of the real picture. I look at what's happening in the economy like most others here - in terms of the big picture.  ....That is that there is much larger initiative to achieve global domination (one gov't, global currency, etc).  Some believe that is b.s., but I've known of this plan for 25 years.   So if you are looking at this whole thing just in terms of another depression we'll get through, then I can see why the ultra rich don't suck up the physical.

...my 2 cents.

JackPutter's picture

Ah Clueless One

You really aren't so clueless.  The truth you touch on is to LIVE.  Regardless of the hell-in-a-handbasket syndrome of modern finance, it's important to sit and smile in the sun.

As to the precious metals, I have a stack, and try to diversify as I might.  If you own a house with a loan then you will benefit from the inflation while the deflation in real estate burns the benefit.  (That is where I sit right now.) 

The one thing is to remember that there will be a time to sell or trade the metals to those who have none.  The price of silver whether your stack cost $40 per Oz, or $12 per Oz wont matter.  What will the price of having NONE be?  A silver dime might be all the shelter you need.

I am not one who will stop caring for people.  I'm just trying to not be in the streets.  I would store food, and have water filter systems before PMs.  I would also want to have two weeks of cash FRNs for changing times.  If the house is able to be kept then look at it as a 30 to 50 year investment.  LIVE in it.  If WE THE PEOPLE do not war, then we win.

clueless one's picture

thanks JackPutter..

I hear ya.  Trust me.  Doing the food thing, the water thing...basically given up on "crap" in the materialistic form.  Sold off most of what "thought" I needed, in order to prep...if it can be called that.  I lived for me, while neglecting the very people who I took an oath to care for...my family.  I wasn't mean, or really stupid...just selfish.  Boy, do I see things, at least in that realm, so clearly now...it's amazing.  How could I have been so selfish, so caught up in it...but that's all in the past.  Every day is yet another chance to do something right.  Be it helping my family for the future, or helping someone out that I've never known.  It's all good. 

Glad you responded.  Made me think a bit more.  I'm very lucky to have what I have and to have a loving family.  A lot out there don't, and I feel for them.  I really do.

I agree, I'll never stop caring about people.  Not in my nature...and you're absolutely right, if WE THE PEOPLE do not war...we win.

be well...best wishes to you and yours.

zilverreiger's picture

lets cheer people up

Lumpy's picture

@ C1 & ipreferPHYS

C1  I agree you're not clueless.  In fact you seem like you got a pretty good handle on things.  Hang in there.

ipreferPHYS,  you make some good points also.  Your guess is as good as mine.  I know I don't have any answers about this mess......just a bunch of questions.   I think I'll change my handle to Clueless Two.

clueless one's picture

@ zilverreiger

it worked... I smiled through the whole thing.  God bless him..

I think you found the understudy for Gold Member...

"ha ha ha ha ha ha....isn't dat veird?"

thanks man.  cool

clueless one's picture

damn...

I love this site.  So many down to earth, good people...

thanks TF.

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