Conspiracies, Charts and Comiskeys

It's Monday morning of a U.S. holiday week. We should all relax. All should be well. Unfortunately, we can't and it's not. So, here we go.

As soon as London opened today, down went the metals. As I type, gold is only down $19. I say only because it was actually below 1700 for a while earlier. Silver is once again getting crushed. It is down over $1 and desperately trying to hold $31.

Regardless of the headlines and fundamentals, the trend continues from last week. We are clearly in a period of direct and active price suppression by the Fed and other centrals banks. There will again come a time when the long-term gold and silver bull markets in paper metal will re-assert themselves, until then, it is best to stay out of the way and let the Mississippi Leg Hounds do their business.

Here are your charts. First up, gold. If you look very closely at the weekly chart, you'll notice the length of the red candlestick from last week. Then, look back over that chart for other, similar-length red candlesticks. There are about 5 or 6 of them. Note that every time in the past five years, after similar bad weeks, gold has traded sideways to down for the next 8-10 weeks, sometimes even longer. Of course, there are always exceptions but, at this point, do not be surprised if gold now trades in a downward consolidation until early 2012, at the earliest.

paper_11-20gold.jpgpaper_11-21amgold12.jpg

paper_11-21amgold.jpg

Silver is no better. In fact, by the looks of this weekly chart, silver appears to be in an even longer-term consolidation pattern. Let's watch this pattern closely over the next few weeks. As first mentioned back in September, do not be surprised if silver ultimately falls all the way back to the primary trendline from 2008, currently near $24-25. I'm not sure I will take any new trading positions until/unless it does.

paper_11-20silv.jpgpaper_11-21amsilv12.jpg

paper_11-21amsilv.jpg

OK, onto the conspiracy section. If you haven't already, I urge you to take a moment to read this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/brandy

Very interesting stuff, huh? Let's see...withhold intervention just long enough to force out Silvio and replace him with your own "company man". From this vantage point, it certainly looks to have happened. Just another nail in freedom's coffin.

Lastly, I finally got a chance to visit with Jim Comiskey yesterday. The poor guy's head is still spinning and I ultimately had to cut him off after about 45 minutes. It's a rambling conversation that kind of drifts from detail to conjecture to personal point of view. Some of you will enjoy it. Some of you may find it maddening. Here it is anyway. Yours to listen to, if you choose.

http://traffic.libsyn.com/tfmetals/comiskey2.mp3

OK. that's all for now. Don't expect any miracles today. Just sit back and watch the fireworks.   TF

180 Comments

silvergoldsilver's picture

Just another Crimex

expiration hammerslam session.  Nothing to see here.

GoldMania3000's picture

Everythings down

Stock markets, gold, silver, all in the Red.  Maybe we have the 2008 crash. Just have to sit and ride it out

Drifter's picture

ha ha the M is gone

M

squib's picture

Take it all in and enjoy

Take it all in and enjoy folks!

Will these next weeks/months be a great buying opportunity?

One that many have said in the past may be the last?

Prepare for turbulence.

You know what? I've found myself buying food/water/tools/guns/ammo rather than PMs lately.

I am still conflicted about the other side of all of this. I'll be making more of an effort to go off grid rather than brain power going to financials/economy/PMs/wealth preservation...just sharing...

4th

iceman321's picture

I hate this ride

It is so hard to watch the beat downs in gold and silver that never fail to happen.  Psychologically, it's taking a toll on me.  However, if silver dips below $30 I will be a buyer.  I have a hard time believing it will fall below $26 or so, but who knows at this point.  God bless to all of you.

opalboy's picture

Yep,

pretty used to now,

it does give you confidence to have some metal though!

It's like they are hiding around every corner trying to scare you, and after awhile it's just not that scary anymore.

agNau's picture

Expirations, Super Committee, Euro death?, Oh My!

Converging in one spot, at one time. What could possibly happen over this long holiday weekend?
What are the group expectations?
Is this......The End?

Orange's picture

Hope you are wrong.

With European bond yields going up, everybody except Italian banks and EC buying Italian bonds, the Japanese, hedge funds etc. running to the doors, I would be scared to get out of PM's. Now statements that the Euro is going down, and main stream media in Ireland, and I am sure elsewhere, saying move your money to Australian dollars, gold as the inevitable cannot be stopped.

I have to imagine with all the regular folks moving cash, after I am sure the wealthy have already done, we will see banks start to fall fairly soon.

I realize the EE may still be able to control PM prices and will have heightened incentive to do so at this time, but when it all falls apart, I can't imagine they will keep in control. Stay long, stay strong.

dow_3000's picture

Same old, same old

It is remarkable how often these Sunday night beat downs have worked.  Little wonder that the EE keeps doing it.

This pattern of trading works because the market is so very thin.  Mostly traded by technicians now who read the charts too.  Very little signs of conviction buying.  Little signs of common sense either.  Miners are so undervalued that I just can't stay away from them now.  Not buying on margin, but would rather have what dough I have (not converted to bullion) invested in companies of value rather than sitting in a brokerage account or worse, in government bonds.

Sure, these miners could (and will likely) fall more, but you'll have to be very quick to catch them at the lows.  Many of the small producers are trading under 3 times next years cash flows.  Stock price is so beat down that those short of cash are unlikely to dilute and are more likely to cut cost.  Hmm, falling production with increased Central Bank buying is most likely to cause a change in direction eventually.  Just tough to hang on until it does.

robreke's picture

Gold moves with stocks ( until decoupling)

I've been following this manipulation thing for a while and here's what I'm starting to think:  At first I bought into the whole "every move in the price of gold and silver ( especially silver ) is manipulated by the Banksters.

Not so sure now.  Why is it that gold and silver mostly are moving down when stocks are and PMs are up when stocks are up?  It's just deflationary forces at play.  I do believe PMs are in a long term secular bull.  and I do believe gold and silver will seriously outperform stocks over the next few years.  But, what we're seeing is just a secular bull market with its inevitable corrections.   Corrections which are just part of normal investor psychology.

Sure, there is some manipulation.....but all markets are manipulated.  Stocks are "manipulated" when hedge funds and institutions go in to buy big blocks...they try to purchase in a way that least affects the market usually.  So, while I do believe there is some, run of the mill manipulation....It is not much different than the manipulation that happens in the other markets.

I mean the stock market's getting hammered today, gold and silver and down big too....and the dollar is up today.  When the stock market has been rallying....so has silver and gold.  How come the manipulation in the metals isn't when stocks are going up?  I mean, for the most part.....PMs are moving with stocks lately.  This is just how it works.  Bernanke will eventually print the US dollar into oblivion most likely which will begin the bubble phase of gold.  Stocks will probably respond well for a while, until inflationary pressures take over and stocks roll over.   At this point there will be a decoupling of PMS and stocks.

This is just the markets playing themselves out in this point in history.  The moves occuring in gold and silver are just due to investor psychology.  Silver goes parabolic earlier this year.  The parabola gets broken.  Silver then consolidates for many many months....It's just technical. All parabolic moves end badly whether for stocks or commodities.  I know about the 5 margin hikes for silver....but do we really think Silver was just going to keep going up like that.  I guess it wouldn't have collapsed so badly without the hikes...so yeah that is some 'manipulation'.  But to see every down day in gold and silver as huge market manipulation by the puppet masters....I think is to miss the big picture which is investor psychology playing itself out in a secular bull market with the intermediate short term deflationary moves corresponding to dollar rallies which, coincidentally is having the same effect on stocks.

I realize I may get salvoed for goring the sacred bull of bankster manipulation day by day, minute by minute on the PMS.  I think we tend to get too worked up and conspiratorial.  But, it's the conclusion I'm beginning to believe.

¤'s picture

German Brandy

Thanks for the new thread and links.

I read Brandy earlier this a.m. and I couldn't agree more with it. BK has some good material as does Reggie Middleton.

I totally subscribe to the squeezing of some heads of state by the IMF/Fed. via political maneuvering/posturing.

Sarkozy is next and then Merkel via regular elections at some point due to voter discontent. Not sure when either of those elections happens and I'm also not sure if the Euro will last that long until they do happen. I don't think so.

In the end, someone with a  Goldmanite or IMF'er/ECB'er lineage will be France's President. Not so sure about Germany yet.

In the end of the Euro experiment and when Germany goes it alone, who will they turn to as their backstop/protector of last resort, D.C. or Beijing? It might be at that point in the future where future economic alliances are strengthened between those two.

Either way, it's about to get interesting and were about to watch the rupture of the EU and their currency going forward. The pages of history are being written in slow motion, day after day.

How much gold does Germany and France have between them? And then throw in Italy's and you have how much?  H'mm....pretty big number.

WheelerSilver's picture

Metals decked in the noggin

Another left hook for the metals. I wonder how much longer until this sham falls into the abyss? If only Europlosion wasn't distracting everyone from the real PIG, the USD. 

__________________________

http://www.wheelersilver.com

~Premium Grade Bullion~

opticsguy's picture

isn't tuesday the beat-down day?

My finger is getting nervous, but I think we'll see $1680 tomorrow at the 10AM beatdown.  Stay on target....

gotta love the internet!

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/casually-pepper-spray-everything-cop/photos

Warren Peace's picture

Charts are off-grid

If I didn't know that silver is in extreme short supply, and massively manipulated...... I would be shorting it...

To be frank, the chart looks like crap. Huge top back in may, lower highs and lower lows since then. The physical buying has slowed in the US, so there must not be many who know the aforementioned facts. And many, like myself are delaying purchases because of the chance to get silver in the 20's. Asia has been wildly buying since the last take down, and more interestingly, so have the CBs(gold). Maybe that is why the price has been paper pounded? So the CBs can scoop up as much gold as possible, and the morgue can shake out enough silver to meet Dec demands?

In short, I know what the charts look like, but I just cannot bring myself to trust them. I feel more comfortable following the actions of the asians. And they seem to have some buyers coming in strong when price approaches 30, heavy when it dips toward 28. I will wait for 28-30, but I don't want to get too cute and miss the opportunity by hoping for 24. Who can know when a commercial signal failure will happen..... today, next year, at any time, so don't be caught waiting.

¤'s picture

robreke

No salvos here. Very good post.

I think you summed it up pretty well. Lots of normal buying and selling going on for sure and then the obvious unnatural market swings happen like clockwork at times.

I think were seeing people freeing up capital because of market conditions and O/I pretty soon. That's my impression right now at least.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes. When Nebraska lost to

MODERATOR

Yes. When Nebraska lost to Michigan, Ron put that "M" on my hat. I must admit that I laughed out loud when I saw it.

Response to: ha ha the M is gone
redwood's picture

robreke

"Why is it that gold and silver mostly are moving down when stocks are and PMs are up when stocks are up?  It's just deflationary forces at play.  I do believe PMs are in a long term secular bull.  and I do believe gold and silver will seriously outperform stocks over the next few years.  But, what we're seeing is just a secular bull market with its inevitable corrections."

Nice post.  I agree gold and silver will decouple from the stock market, but will mining stocks?  In other words, are mining stocks influenced predominantly by the metals, or the general market.  The perennial question for speculators.

Urban Roman's picture

For those of you who stack

I hope y'all have some dry powder, it looks like we'll see a major dip this week, or next.

In fact, if it works out like 2008/09 you will have buying opps from now until well into next spring.

I'm thinking it's gonna be 08/09 on steroids. The deflationary force now is sovereign collapse, not merely the collapse of big financial houses. Also remember, as MF Global has proven, don't depend on an "account" with a "trusted" third party.

The other thing to remember is to put the phyzz in your safe. Or bury it in the back yard. Don't put it in your tackle box and take it fishing with you. It doesn't float, you know.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Turd's turn to post a video

MODERATOR

Sorry but I can't help myself. My two favorite bands..all in one.

The Killers covering one of my absolute favorite U2 songs. (If anyone cares, I'll be happy to share my U2 top 5.)

GoldMania3000's picture

If you think about it...

In a criminal mind. You would want to bring down the markets so you can take down gold and silver more...under the cover of a market crash...And then you print...you start with a lower baseline in gold

Shill's picture

S & P 1187 and dropping like

S & P 1187 and dropping like a turd in a snowbank

Much4Him's picture

Turd you stated

"Let's see...withhold intervention just long enough to force out Silvio and replace him with your own "company man". From this vantage point, it certainly looks to have happened. Just another nail in freedom's coffin."

I wonder if the Fed might initiate an inverse plan (similar to the ECB in this manner) not to force some one out but to keep certain  individuals in?

pforth's picture

Options expiry relief...

Looks like we've quit clinging to 31 and done a little waterfall below it.  I'm hoping that with options expiration tomorrow we will see a little relief from all this selling pressure. (Note the use of the word "hoping" not, unfortunately predicting)....

tread_w_care's picture

bring on the smash . . .

daddy needs some shiney

Pablo's picture

Wow. What a massacre.

Everybody selling anything that isn't nailed down. Sheesh.

Luckily all the Pablo household phyzzzzzzzzical metals are nailed down :)

PS - Mr Turd - What are your U2 top 5?

Orange's picture

Max Keiser

interviews Dan Collins from thechinamoneyreport.com. He talks about the big news coming from China in the past few weeks, which is that the investment demand for gold and silver is going up.China's Yuan / Renminbi has 1,200% Leverage per Yuan / Renminbi as of last May. The U.S. Dollar has 120% Leverage. China looks good only because China services it's own debt load.. thru building empty City's.. 7 to 12 empty City's a year are built to service the China's Debt. The People of China and India do consume Gold and Silver and as well China has a swap window for Yuan to Gold.. But China is benefiting from true price discovery in Gold and Silver prices. Protecting their Fiat 2!!

http://silver-shortage.blogspot.com/

tread_w_care's picture

yes, turd, your top 5 U2 please

oh and, man, buying phys, when to start?

thinking wait out the holiday weekend to see where we land

but man anything close to 1600 and i gotta back up the truck (must . . . fight . . . urge)

dow_3000's picture

RE: robreke

"In other words, are mining stocks influenced predominantly by the metals, or the general market.  The perennial question for speculators."

Miners are at the mercy of these thinly traded markets for now.  Have been pretty much all year.  They are getting to the point though where positive cash flows and earnings will force them higher despite what the broader markets, or the dollar index does.  Even a knock down of the POG to under 1500 will not be able to keep many of them down for long.  Many of the major producers have cash waiting to be put to work at times like these.  Look at what happened to Jaguar Mining (JAG) just last week.

Yooper Rick's picture

Turd has become a "Stacker"

You are probably not the only one that has lost his zeal for the "Casino". Give us the U2 list.

redwood's picture

dow 3000

I've been asking this question in many different ways.   Yours is superb and corresponds to many sources of info.  Thank you.

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