Amended Silver Support Levels

I've been saying since yesterday that $34 was vital support for silver. It still is. However, I thought it was important to look a bit closer at the charts and here's what I found.

Yes, $34 is important. It is diagonal support from the lows of September. That line held very well yesterday and overnight until finally being overrun by the Central Bank and/or Cartel-inspired smashdown in gold this morning. There's still time for silver to recover and close back above $34 today. That would be great. However, if it doesn't all is not lost, at least not yet.

On the charts below, you can clearly see the significance of $33 as support. The area between 33 and 33.50 is very important horizontal support. Note that $33 held very well as a stopping point in May and it provided stout resistance on the way back up from the lows in September. It is now critically important that $33 hold as support again. Breaking the diagonal trendline at $34 can be overcome. Losing horizontal support at $33 would be a very bad sign. IF silver falls below 33, it will likely drop to at least 32 and if it falls below 32, it will likely test 30.

If trading (which I'm not), be diligent and cautious. If looking to buy/add, watch the area between 33 and 33.50 very closely because IF silver reverses off of there, it could present an attractive buying opportunity. If it falls below 33, I'd exit short-term positions and look to get back in later.

paper_11-16amsilvd.jpgpaper_11-16amsilv8.jpg

I'm not worried about gold, at present. As long as it stays above 1750, all is well. In fact, as long as it stays above 1705, there is nothing to be overly concerned about.

Lastly, I posted this latest from Gonzalo Lira in the update to the previous thread. If you haven't read it yet, I strongly suggest you do so now. 

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/11/were-in-middle-of-run-on-europeand-its.html

Hang in there.  TF

267 Comments

Economical Disaster's picture

Abyss

We are getting closer to the abyss...

Turd Ferguson's picture

And with crude over $101

MODERATOR

You should be watching the MENA very closely.

Read this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/france-recalls-ambassador-syrian-liberation-imminent

Then read this:

http://www.debka.com/article/21486/

(Keep in mind that Debka provides helpful but not always accurate info. I believe that most of their info is sourced from contacts within The Mossad. This is fine with me but you must always keep that in mind when reading their stuff.)

RaRaRasputin's picture

Thanks Turd

Still following your advice and stacking phyzz every few weeks (while we still can)

RaRa

Dr G's picture

Turd, nice update. Thanks for

Turd, nice update. Thanks for that.

ewc58's picture

Just keep stacking

The lower the better before it goes higher.

But OMG my miner positions. I think I'll open my e trade app again in '012. Late '012.

Brotha Bob's picture

I hate them all

How can this be? I hate them all. Greece, Italy,now France. MF "Maddoff with my money" Global, oil peaking again. And the metals down? I am calling shinanagins on Blythe and Comapny.

I used to fear the day it all collapse. Not anymore. I hope Blythe and friends get what's coming to them.

LongGoldLongSilver's picture

Silver + Acquisitions

China seems to be reducing its export quotas for silver by another 5% next year. It might not seem to be a lot but in an already tight market it has a big impact.

"Silver exports from China, the world's largest, are expected to drop this year as domestic demand from investors is expected to surge."

"According to a statement from China's ministry of commerce, the 2012 export quotas for silver from the Asian country have also been reduced by 5%. This amounts to a cut of 283 tonnes in its 2012 silver export quotas from 5,670 tonnes in 2011. "Read full Mineweb article here

"Chen Jinghe, the president of Zijin Mining Group, told reporters at the China Mining Congress, a 300 billion US dollar fund could involve a part of the country’s tremendous foreign reserves amounting to 3 trillion US dollars that are being exposed to pressure caused by the weakening of the US dollar and urged the government to establish this structure. Large Chinese gold mining companies are interested in expanding overseas assets and suggested that the authorities should establish a special fund to support the global expansion of local market participants."Read full CaspioNet article here

Imagine what a $300 billion acquisition injection would mean in the form of share prices. It's pretty much the value of all the gold and silver companies' combined market cap.

Reuters had an article this morning about a gold miner in Brazil, Jaguar Mining, which is about to be the latest "victim" of the Chinese buying spree. A hefty 73% premium is supposedly the offer, and this is yet another confirmation of the undervaluation within the sector. More buyouts will surely come.

"The offer from Shandong Gold was $9.3 per share for Jaguar, or 73 percent higher than the last trading price of Jaguar Mining of $5.39 per share in New York."Read full Reuters article here

In short, precious metals investors in both the actual physical gold and silver, and in the stocks should be looking at profitable times ahead. http://www.economicfreefall.com/2011/11/china-cuts-silver-exports-while-buying.html

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Thanks Turd!

I hope Vegas was as much of a blast for you as WE all imagine it was ;-)

It looks like the Silver Monster may have to lurk in the basement for a while longer...  but just wait until this bad boy gets loose.

silvergoldsilver's picture

Silver

I am hoping Blythe brings upon us a smashjammer session.  Sub $30 would be the greatest Xmas gift in my life.  Bring it on big feet!

pforth's picture

FUBM

A few more pennies and I think this rebound almost qualifies as a FUBM!

ivars's picture

First signs of Deflationary environment?

As well as in producer price index, October provided first signs of coming (?) deflation due to USD strength and contracting economy with fighting sellers ( Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, reported Tuesday a 2.9% decline in third-quarter profit, after its first comparable sales gain at Walmart U.S. in 10 quarters came at a cost to gross margin. Company gross margin narrowed by 0.52 percentage point, to 24.6%, missing analysts’ estimates, after Walmart U.S., the company’s biggest division, didn’t raise prices to pass on cost inflation in several categories in order to stay price competitive.)

Americans got some relief in October as the cost of living fell, mainly because of lower prices for gasoline, fruits and vegetables, the government reported.

The Labor Department on Wednesday said the consumer price index dropped by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month. The decline reduced the 12-month increase in consumer prices to 3.5% from 3.9% in September.

The core rate of inflation, meanwhile, rose 0.1% for the second straight month, but it marked the lowest back-to-back increases of 2011. The core rate has risen 2.1% over the past 12 months, up from 2.0% in September.

 
Exbroker's picture

I'm about as worried here as I was when I was buying Gold at 250

Patience Grasshoppers....Don't get excited. Frankly I could give a flying fig if the metals trade down 50% from here. I'm still to the good. Honestly, I would be a buyer on that kind of ignorant  biz. I hope they wipe out the market and let me buy even more metal at fire sale prices. I buy and hold. It is not to difficult to understand what is going on here. I'm not here to make my millions. I am here to survive something my parents lived thru in the beginning of the century. I don't know why everyone is so interested in getting rich. You should be more interested in maintaining some sort of civility before this is all over. It's going to be bad, and a majority of people are not going to give a fuck about a Silver Coin. If they can't shoot it, eat it, or get gasoline, they will kill you. Actually we owners of metals will be considered part to the system the unwashed masses don't understand and they will hate us for it. Basically because they are brain dead. I should  know... I have children and an ex wife. Brain Dead is a kind word for those walking dead.

cpnscarlet's picture

@BrothaBob - In early October

@BrothaBob - In early October you thought that it would be just a matter of weeks that the EU and US would be "overpowering" the EE in a matter of weeks. What was your thought on that and why didn't it happen? (It's one of the few things I had to put on the November prediction calendar).

exiledbear's picture

Closer to the abyss?

We're IN the abyss!

Although every time I go shopping for necessities, I marvel at how normal everything still looks. Except for the empty storefronts, everything more or less still looks like it did in 1998. I mean, you hear stories about people camping and protesting, but locally, it all still looks OK.

I wonder how much longer it will last though, because I know it can't.

WheelerSilver's picture

short term bear trap!

This little dip is kind of shaping into a little bit of a bear trap. I know that might be a bit premature but heres hope'n! We REALLY need to stay above 34 here...

___________________________________
http://www.wheelersilver.com
~Promo Hand-Worked Bullion~

Monedas's picture

Dr. Jerome et al !

Lots of good posts lately....and as always ! Somethin's stirring the pot, someone's shakin' the bee hive, someone cut the cheese in the elevator ! That spike down in Gold this morning was blunted with eager rats leaving the Good Ship Fiat Slop !          If the CME, as Dr. Jerome and many others suggest, only has 32 M "Trounces" (Troy Ounces ?) of physical Silver unencumbered (Yeah, sure !)......then from where are they going to summon the moral decency to even tender that pittance to meet their obligations ? I bet they'll scoop up that token amount off the table with both hands.......just like Corzine tried to sell MFing after he looted it ! What earthly sense does it make to leave 32 M Trounces P:H:Y:S:I:C:A:L on the table after commiting the Mother Whore of all Frauds ? They won't leave a Sliver of Silver ! Now does hoarding make more sense ? Hmmm?  Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Black Humour Fairy Tails.....You Lose ! devil

Transformer's picture

I think we now know what comex default looks like

How does JPM get out of their silver position?  Could the MF Global debacle be a trial run?    Perhaps over the last couple months they have tried to see just much they could cover, and it was only about half of their huge position.  So then,  they crash MFG and it looks like the financial world is just going to take it.  No assassinations, no irate Congressman or Senators on the MSM.  All regulatory agencies are staying in line and following orders.  The Justice Department is a joke.

I think we now know how it will come down.  Silver collapses and they just walk away and everyone with a position is screwed, you don't even get your cash back.  At this point anyone in the commodity markets is a fool.  They have just shown us what they can do, with no retribution.  Silver is finally on the edge of a commercial signal failure.  If you're in the market, watch out.

¤'s picture

Thanks again TF

Glad your on top of it and I can see clearly what you've outlined above. Your "feel" for this and realistic recognition of what's relevant is appreciated right now. This is the violence Santa Jim just spoke of a week ago before a small lift off I think.

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Deflationary? Anyone who believes the Dept. of Labor  statistics or any CPI MOPE that's been rolled out and uses them as a basis for anything far into the future is fooling themselves into believing.

Wow, it keeps getting better.

(sparing everyone the Styx / Grand Illusion vid)

even steven's picture

Celente and MF Global

Trends Research Institute founder and director, Gerald Celente, told Russia Today (RT) in a Nov. 14 interview that the fall of MF Global took his futures account down with it.   Celente cannot access his account nor get answers to his inquiries from representatives of Lind-Waldock, the firm with whom he opened an account.

“They took my money; they took out of my account . . . it wasn’t being traded by anyone . . . this is like having money in a bank account,” Celente forcefully said.  “They took my money out of my account, six figures, and they have it.  They closed out two of my positions, and I cannot get any answers, and I can’t get my money.”

So far, Celente is the highest profile victim of politico operative John Corzine’s MF Global.  The firm filed for bankruptcy protection in October following credit downgrades of its debt and a collapse in its stock price weeks prior to the filing event.

http://www.beaconequity.com/gerald-celente-mf-global-%E2%80%9Ctook-my-money%E2%80%9D-2011-11-16/

exiledbear's picture

The key thing to take away from MFG

Is that any cash in a brokerage account now has a significant probability of getting stolen. The basic contract of trust between client and broker has been SHATTERED.

Like in Margin Call, you can cheat, be smarter or be first - and it's a helluva lot easier just to be first.

If you care about the cash in your brokerage account, I'd find someone else to hold it. And it's a helluva lot easier to be first, if you get my drift...

cpnscarlet's picture

Simple math and chocolate

Pissing away some birthday money yesterday involved a trip for party snacks. I passed by the candy rack and the "big sale" on my favorite 5th Avenue candy bars was on - 65 cents each. last year the "big sale" was 50 cents each. I know the neurons are slowly disconnecting, but that's a 30% increase in the sale price YOY. Scientific proof that CPI is much higher than the EE wants you to think? Hey, it's chocolate - it must be true.

WineGuy's picture

Re: MFG

I have a little different slant on the MFG Fiasco. What better way to shake the PM Equity tree further then to in still more fear in the masses. If everyone were to sell all of their PM stocks and pull their money out of their brokerage accounts who would be left to acquire the prized quality miners? Yup, the EE wanker bankers. I have absolutely no intent in selling the miners I currently own. The leverage they offer given their historically low valuations tells me they are primed for "liftoff". Call me stupid, but I still believe the miners should be a part of any solid PM portfolio. Physical Gold, Physical Silver & quality miners, percentage for each is up to the individual. 

Bay of Pigs's picture

DPH

Yes, Shills post on the corrupted and useless CPI was spot on. Ridiculous spouting "deflation" when the facts show otherwise.

MOPE indeed.

Don't look years into the future thinking time is on your side. It isn't. Prepare now.

NCdirtdigger's picture

When a beat down isn't a beat down

Hahaha, seens as if the flying monkeys aren't as effective as they used to be!

Captain Silver's picture

FUBM indeed

Step away from the screen for an hour and miss the whole event.  Can't BTD if it only lasts a few seconds!  Maybe they're finally losing control of this roller coaster.

cpnscarlet's picture

@even steven - Saw the

@even steven - Saw the Celente interview yesterday. I do feel sorry for his misfortune, but now maybe he'll start saying something more of substance in an interview instead of bitchin' and moanin' about all the things we know anyway.

cpnscarlet's picture

@even steven - Saw the

@even steven - Saw the Celente interview yesterday. I do feel sorry for his misfortune, but now maybe he'll start saying something more of substance in an interview instead of bitchin' and moanin' about all the things we know anyway.

¤'s picture

The riddle of the Iranian base blast / Debka "crawler"

The riddle of the Iranian base blast
 

DEBKA November 15, 2011, 7:14 PM

The first Western spy satellite images of the explosions at the Alghadir Revolutionary Guards base 45 km west of Tehran further deepen the mystery of their cause Monday, two days after the event. The coming DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday proposes some intriguing answers. In seconds, the vast 52-square kilometer (20 sq. mile) area around the base was laid waste, as though ravaged by a nuclear blast – except for the absence of radioactivity. The Guards have placed the area off-limits and posted special operations units to bar entry.

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ticker_space.gifNetanyahu message to Knesset: Prime Minister and authorized bodies are acting to stop the nuclear armament of Iran • Minister Michael Eitan read out message to special debate on "dilemma of whether to attack Iran" • Efforts are ongoing and all options are on the table, said the statement • Iran's armed forces chief Gen. Hassan Firouz-Abadi insists that deadly Guards base explosion Saturday took place "during research on weapons that could strike Israel" • Shin Bet and police arrest a Palestinian terrorist cell in Bethlehem • France recalls its ambassador from Damascus, offers to join Arab League Security Council motion against Syria • "Free Syrian Army" deserters attack an air force base near Damascus – first organized raid on a military target in eight-month uprising against Assad • They used shoulder-borne rockets and heavy machine guns • Syrian army defectors next struck military checkpoint in Hama killing at least 8 soldiers • A bullet-proof window stopped a bullet at the White House, another round found outside • Unidentified shots were heard nearby Friday • A bomb explosion at the Queen Elissa Hotel in S. Lebanese port of Tyre Wednesday caused damage but no casualties. The hotel is frequented by UN personnel • Five minutes later another blast damaged a liquor shop in the city, again without casualties • Two Qassam missiles explode at Shear Hanegev Tuesday. One hit a kindergarten store one hour after children left • ticker_space.gif
paulindoon's picture

New Bears vid

SGS has a new Bears vid out for yr viewing pleasure:

!

thesandbox's picture

Re: simple math and chocolate

just wondering as I know we all talk about food price increase and packaging getting smaller but has anyone noticed lately that they are now trying to sell AIR....yes air....  I have seen both commercials for a new KISS and another new chocolate bar with all those smooth tasing air bublles in it.   Can anyone say same shape...less chocolate.   They are marketing AIR!!!!  Yes....buy less chocolate for the same money...it tastes so much better!

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