FIRST!!!  First! First! First! 

OK, so I am a child at heart. 

I think it is important for the integrity of the markets for position limits to eventually be enforced, but I am not hopeful.  Swaps were supposed to be defined by November 1^st.  I understand FM Global and all, but are we really expecting that definition anytime soon?  Then there will be another 60 day delay.  If position limits are enforced 60 days after the definition of swaps is released I will send Mr. Ferguson a Morgan dollar. 

In my opinion, it is more likely that a physical squeeze will eventually punish (severely) those who are using shorting to manipulate the gold/silver market.  Last month China took advantage of the discounted prices to purchase more physical gold, more than they have ever purchased in a single month.  Eventually there is going to be a run for physical, the EFTs are going to implode, and no one will be able/willing to deliver physical at the paper price. 

On the day that happens, I wonder if we will still be waiting for position limits. 

Be like China, buy the dip. 

Thanks for getting back into the rhythm of presenting a daily analysis of the chart targets, Turd. I recognize it's hard to keep plugging away day in and day out in the face of blatant EE manipulation, but your analysis is the single biggest thing that makes this site so valuable and differentiated from other precious metals resources - keep up the great work!

On a positive note, I guess it's a good sign that despite the raid, silver is still hovering around $35.  A few more days of consolidation, and hopefully we can break above $35.70 and towards $38 or $39. I'm cautiously optimistic by the strong bullish conviction that people like James Turk, Jim Sinclair, John Embry, and to a lesser extent Ben Davies, Robin Griffith's etc. have for the PMs over the next 1 to 2 months.  Turk and Embry for example, are calling for $60 to $75 silver within the next 2 months. Hope they're right!

Someone spray some unRAID on the chart and make it go away!

NOT! take this back down below 34 at least...shEEt.

taking a liTTle more paper oFF today on a 20% blast in SZYM...just incase we get a significant dip

Turk and Embry for example, are calling for $60 to $75 silver within the next 2 months. Hope they're right!

No way, unfortunately.

I hope so. It'd take the bite out of the rapid inflation that you say isn't going to happen for years. They must have me on the pre-payment inflation plan at the grocery store.

I just paid $4.99 a lb for a lousy Orange and Red Pepper..came to almost $2 for ONE lousy Monsanto tasteless PEPPER!

Tom L - Unless it's proprietary, how did you catch that algo change in gold risk? Or is it just a gut check?

John Embry did not say silver would be at $60-75 in "two months".

Here's the quote,

"I mean it’s hard to get silver and you have to pay premiums for it.  The real price of silver is in the physical market.  This paper market is a complete and utter sham and when the paper market it broken, and I think we’re close to that happening, silver will double overnight into the $60 to $70 area and that could happen within months."  

Not that accuracy or credibility is all that important around here these days. 

"within months" - I always figure for people in the financial realm, if it's more than 3, they'd say "a quarter".

I'm taking you mean Ivar is the "newbie"? Yep, but I don't see what Dr G means by "consistently wrong" when the pattern match is pretty good - matching inflection points primarily. I know the highs/lows %-age wise leave something to be desired, but the timing appears decent.

Always converting paper to phys little by little - itching to get past the EOY so I can get a big withdrawal from the IRA to turn to stack.

Almost thought there for a minute we had an actual price move in Sydney. I wonder what those pulses are? Bad algos, bad data, bad connection?

Thanks for the charts and trend recognition that's relevant.

Hope the newbs are paying attention and appreciate your efforts as well.

Twenty First... Wow, too bad Mom wasn't still with us to see this!

As we have been pondering the malfeasance of "Don" Corzine and his senior thugs over at MFing Global, it grieves me greatly to know that many of my fellow turdites are suffering financial hardships due the criminality of that corporation.  Regardless of how we feel politically about the situation in Greece, I personally think its important to understand how this is affecting the average Greek citizen, who like us, is trying to live their lives against forces that are pretty much beyond them.  I thought I would share one Greek's perspective on how things are going in that part of the world.....so many are suffering for the acts of the EE and TBTF.

The situation in Athens is bad (I haven't been around the rest of the country).The city is clearly in a depression. But what I keep telling people who ask me about it is one has to put the Great Depression into context. There were soup lines and bread kitchens and those are the images that time conjures up. But you also had some of the greatest clubs in the world operating like the Cotton Club. So although there is a depression in Greece it's not the equivalent of the end of the world or War of the Worlds type scenario. When one walks through Athens about 20% to 25% of all business have shut down. There are empty shops left and right. If one goes out to nightclubs you notice that although people do go out they'll only buy a drink and slow sip it. Any business operating will tell you that even if they are profitable they've been massively hit by new taxes. Most business are owed massive amounts of money by customers. Crime has gone through the roof. Roberries, assaults, burglaries are up hundreds of percentages. In fact the only businesses reporting bumper profits in Greece are security companies. Crime is massively underreported in the statistics (who would've thought Greece would provide false statistics about its crime) but when watching the news or reading the paper the amount of circumstantial evidence of higher crime is overwhelming. Also stories from friends and family abound of victims of crime. The real turning point was the 28th of September in Greece. The 28th is the equivalent of the 4th of July in the US. It's known as "NO" day, which is the day Greece refused to surrender to the Axis powers. Citizens were attacking politicians and blocking military parades in every city of the country except Athens. The Athenian city marching band performed with black ribbons on their instruments. Students walking in the parade in Athens would hold up black handkerchiefs when passing the politicians on the stands outside the parliament. 

So after the 28th my best guess is that all the politicians but especially Papandreou realized that they had completely lost legitimacy. The system no longer works in Greece. There is simply no light at the end of the tunnel for most people. You have to remember that Papandreou's government has been characterized by almost a split personality disorder. He got elected on the promise of "there is money out there". He kept repeating after each bail-out package that there wouldn't be anymore austerity, then he'd implement more austerity a month later. This has happened so repeatedly that the entire population thinks the man is incompetent. In the meantime since his reign began the Greek economy has shed over 300,000 private sector jobs. Sales tax has gone from 18% to 25%. The latest emergency tax, which was a 10% surcharge on monthly income and a property tax was included on people's ELECTRICITY BILLS!!! So if you didn't pay the tax they would shut off your electricity. It's just absolutely insane. In the meantime the public sector hasn't shed a single-job. Now that the government is even considering cutting 30,000 public sector jobs by 2014 all hell is breaking loose on the streets again. So the situation is beyond insane. I actually agreed with Papandreou's referendum and the Greek people really should be asked "do you want to default or do you want more austerity". It is time for the people to make the responsible decision for themselves. And underlying a lot of the anger in Greece is the realization that despite all the austerity, the higher taxes, the firings, the constant riots, the rising crime, that more debt is still being added on and that there is no end in site. If you ask most people "will it be better ten years from now" they'll tell you no, it'll be worse.

Another few things, everyone complains about not having money all the time. You ask people if they want to go out and even people who are in the shipping business (which is performing like shit these days) will tell you they don't have dough. People are constantly talking about leaving the country. I have friends that ask me all the time what it's like abroad and if they can come stay with me while they look for a job.

JPM and MFG link to article from WSJ via Jesse's site

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020373350457702450239142524...

Take our fellow Turdite up on his offer to host the site!! 

whoa ~~ is that katy peRRy lalalallala nice 1 atar

tOOk me a few tries to get in. gOOd to be back

34.75 on the first down draft. would like to sEE that hold. if not 34.50 stop before we go. get ready for a walk on the wild side, dOOp da dOOp da dOOp da dOOp da dOOp dOOp

and madoNNa is stiLL hot. this is gOOd. give me aLL your love

http://www.billboard.com/news/madonna-s-give-me-all-your-love-single-listen-1005489352.story#/news/madonna-s-give-me-all-your-love-single-listen-1005489352.story

dont play the stupid game

I could not log in today for hours and I was freakin out. I must be addicted.

Man, I didn't realize how bad it was!

Can't help but plug my favourite insomniac site, and his new excellent podcast:

Steven Kaplan of the University of Chicago talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the richest Americans and income inequality. Drawing on work with Joshua Rauh, Kaplan talks about the composition of the richest 1% and 1/10 of 1%--what proportions come from the financial sector, CEOs from non-financial corporations, athletes, lawyers and so on. Then he discusses how the incomes of these different groups have changed over time. Kaplan argues that these groups have increased their incomes by similar proportions, suggesting that a failure of corporate governance is not the explanation of rising CEO pay. The discussion closes with a discussion of the financial crisis and the compensation in the financial sector.

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2011/11/kaplan_on_the_i.html

sorry, I just cant help myself

I hope so. It'd take the bite out of the rapid inflation that you say isn't going to happen for years. They must have me on the pre-payment inflation plan at the grocery store.

Not for years. I think some inflation is present today , there will be deflation in q4 2011 to q3 2012, and then inflation will shoot up in November 2012. That is what my charts say. The fact that USD appreciates against EUR only means that in EUR, inflation will start earlier. It has started already on much higher levels than in the USA. Same relates to USDx chart:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78027#comment-78027

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78039#comment-78039

The most clear indicator of  when I have predicted inflation AFTER deflation to kick in is this Gold prediction chart( I will post the picture here):-OOPS , I have marked deflationary periods as continuous- now I think there will be mixed inflationary/deflationary periods even after first big  inflation kicks in in November 2012 when USD will suffer commodity devaluation of about 10-15% as a result of the US debt crash correction (most likely default on debt owned to FED) . I have to rethink it and make smaller divisions on inflation/deflation periods)-but for now, first true inflation starts as Gold starts to move UP from 1800 in November 2012. As seen from the chart, at about July 2013 it starts to turn into deflation, that on average lasts till January 2014.

Good remark- reason to inspect and improve the chart interpretations ( not the charts themselves).

Can not give short term advices, my experience is just the 8 months the silver  chart is generally right and actually <2 months when everyone noticed that it is right. Personally, I see no hurry to get into silver now for long term, there might be lower prices as economy slows down in q1 2012...Not sure though how much. But I would not miss the moment the prices start to go up-buy before that-that is May 2012 ( +-1 month).

Gold... Again, from my charts, if it hits 1900 its a good point to sell since its basically hovering around 1750 for the first half of 2012.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78024#comment-78024

But, in reality, I will give advice when I myself will start to win based on my predictions- and I am no day trader, so it can take a long time.

Dismiss the text on the chart- that has to be improved into smaller and more concrete event specifications- but the chart seems OK so far.

http://blog.heritage.org/2011/11/08/obama-couldnt-wait-his-new-christmas...

President Obama’s Agriculture Department today announced that it will impose a new 15-cent charge on all fresh Christmas trees—the Christmas Tree Tax—to support a new Federal program to improve the image and marketing of Christmas trees.

In the Federal Register of November 8, 2011, Acting Administrator of Agricultural Marketing David R. Shipman announced that the Secretary of Agriculture will appoint a Christmas Tree Promotion Board.  The purpose of the Board is to run a “program of promotion, research, evaluation, and information designed to strengthen the Christmas tree industry’s position in the marketplace; maintain and expend existing markets for Christmas trees; and to carry out programs, plans, and projects designed to provide maximum benefits to the Christmas tree industry” (7 CFR 1214.46(n)).  And the program of “information” is to include efforts to “enhance the image of Christmas trees and the Christmas tree industry in the United States” (7 CFR 1214.10).

To pay for the new Federal Christmas tree image improvement and marketing program, the Department of Agriculture imposed a 15-cent fee on all sales of fresh Christmas trees by sellers of more than 500 trees per year (7 CFR 1214.52).  And, of course, the Christmas tree sellers are free to pass along the 15-cent Federal fee to consumers who buy their Christmas trees.

h/t to http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Scrooged-Obama-Taxes-Christmas