Friday Musings

It's Friday and The Turd is ready for a few days of downtime. First, however, we've got to get through this day.

And it promises to be a wild one. First of all, check this out from ZH. It wasn't too long ago that the USDJPY was supposed to hold 82. Then it was 80. Surely it wouldn't break 78, they said. Now it's broken 76. The Turd is way too undercapitalized mentally to tell you wtf this all means but here's the link anyway:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dollar-yen-plummets-new-post-world-war-2-low

Also from ZH, a terrific piece regarding gold and the money supply (with lots of pretty charts!). This one is a must read:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-money-supply-surges-surges-33-4-months-gold-follow

Linked in that article is a piece from the Motley Fool. I don't usually read the Motley Fool because I think the place is populated with DeltaBravos. In this case, one of them seems to finally have come to his senses:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/10/20/why-i-was-completely-wrong-about-gold.aspx

Lastly, Eric King's "Deep Throat" has once again checked in from London. I saw this mentioned a few times in the comments of the previous thread so I thought I'd link to it here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/21_London_Trader_-_Sovereign_Silver_Buying,_Middle-East_Shortages.html

I'm continuing to receive emails from around the world with anecdotal evidence of physical shortages, particularly in silver. Keep stacking...if you can find it.

Lastly, here are two updated 4-hour charts. Note that we are rangebound, until further notice.  Not that that's a bad thing, mind you. Once the metals break out...in either direction...the move will be clear to see for all paying attention.

paper_10-21amgold.jpgpaper_10-21amsilv.jpg

Again, if you want to keep discussing the previous thread, please utilize the comments section of that thread. This current post is a precious metals post. Please comment accordingly.  TF

378 Comments

silvergoldsilver's picture

US money Supply

up 33% in 4 months.  Could this be the catalyst?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Should be

MODERATOR

Keep up the great work, SGS. 

Maybe The Wicked Witch and The Bears should collaborate sometime...

Response to: US money Supply
single6's picture

Second

Second

single6's picture

I used to like investing in the stock market

Just a middle class guy here. Now I do not understand the markets......like Rickards states they are more about theater than anything else.

GoldMania3000's picture

Bill Gross Was Right: Fed Board Member Tarullo Calls For Restart

Bill Gross Was Right: Fed Board Member Tarullo Calls For Restart Of MBS Monetization

zerohedge.com
OCTOBER 20, 2011

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/20/2011 18:15 -0400

When we first reported on Bill Gross' massive surge in duration and accelerated purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities a week ago, we said, "That's either what is called betting one's farm on Operation Twist, or, betting one's farm that the next thing to be purchased by the Fed in QE3 or QE4 depending on how one keeps count, will be Mortgage Backed Securities." It was the letter. Confirmation that Bill once again frontran the Fed comes courtesy of Daniel Tarullo who in a speech at Columbia University, talking about the labor market of all things, just said the following: "I believe we should move back up toward the top of the list of options the large-scale purchase of additional mortgage-backed securities (MBS), something the FOMC first did in November 2008 and then in greater amounts beginning in March 2009 in order to provide more support to mortgage lending and housing markets." And there you go: watch as the market rips on the expectation that the US will bail out China all over again. Oh wait, at this point China couldn't care less what happens to the GSEs stack. So unfortunately as can be expected, this is nothing but yet another bailout of US banks, which lately have been buying up MBS like crazy (Gross is not the only one with the hotline), and expecting to flip right back to Brian Sack: after all something has to be done to save the poor things from a total pancaking of the Treasury curve.

.... READ MORE ...

silvergoldsilver's picture

Bears and the witch

I am interested.  I will contact you.  I am planning another Bears Episode 8 release so lets see what we can do together!

Strongsidejedi's picture

USD JPY

Are big funds moving into the Japanese Yen in order to position or rotate to the Yuan on Asian trading hours?
I'm guessing that the PBOC are selling USTs in London trading hours, then using the Pound or Euros to rotate to Yen and gold. But, if the Chinese have a gentlemen's agreement with the Euro zone to sell their USTs in the Eurozone, you would see a sell off in USDs and a rise in Yen.

If you're in forex and long Yen, conrgrats.

Drut's picture

a dead cat final bouncing???

Well...don't get too excited...but if yu wanna have that sorta feeling...why not? enjoy it yo!!

Alex Costa's picture

Bottom or Dead Cat?

We took a dip yesterday in the precious metals. I'm definitely not an expert on these things, but I fear we're in the middle of a small dead cat bounce (no thanks to the manipulators) and that we'll see silver in the 20's again. We could have hit a bottom, but I'd go dead cat.

Either way, it doesn't matter. Please, drive the price down to 10 dollars and ounce. I'd sell my car at that point for the opportunity to get more silver! I already sold my van.

NoSuckerNoBloodsucker's picture

EXP with MONEX company, newbie Q's

Hello all, I'm a newbie to this game, and I recently opened an account with MONEX company.  However, I am concerned that the one mention about this company I have read (since opening an account) on this site was negative.  The biggest negative I have encountered in dealing with this company has been the "spread" of $27 for gold, so for every decision I make, the market has to move $27 (in the right direction) for me to make a profit.  Is this standard?  Is it set by the company?  I have generally received good customer service with my representative, though he is essentially a facilitator of trades, I come here for advice/analysis.  Is this company the same "don't deal in paper" trap/vulnerability I've read about here?  Is the "don't deal in paper" advice equivalent to saying "don't leverage?" With the clear manipulation in the market, I am more and more motivated to begin accumulating metal that I can touch.  Hell, I'm even thinking it may get so bad that I might have to depend on a garden for most of my calories sometimes.  Regardless of the survivalist measures that may need to be taken, can anyone tell me if they have experience with this company, or comparable companies?

I am very grateful for this community; its honest answers and honest inquiry.

TruthPreeminent's picture

Turd & SGS

Have a great weekend guys!  Nice to see SGS drop a quick line here.  He's a straight shooter.  Hope you guys can get together on that video.

Shill's picture

A Turd and SGS video 

A Turd and SGS video  Nice!

Bring on the F bombs :)

tmosley's picture

Turd: On the KWN news story,

Turd:

On the KWN news story, do you (or anyone else) know anything about this three month delay on a 15 million oz order, where much of the order was refined after it was placed?

This is important to me, because it confirms one of my main theses regarding silver investment.  I would like to have some documented evidence rather than secondhand gossip from an anonymous source.

pdobrove's picture

Possible Head and Shoulders in the DXY Chart

There looks to be a clear head and shoulders patten forming in the 8hr Dollar index chart... A break below 76 would just about insure it... That in turn should open the flood gates on the PM's.

Not sure how to post an image from my computer, but once I do... Ill post the chart!

kenklave's picture

tmose

I'm sure he is talking about Sprott and PSLV.

GoldMania3000's picture

why

Why do some states charge sales tax on the purchase of gold? sorry, it's a little off topic, but I don't understand that. You charge tax on money?

tmosley's picture

@kenklave:  Do you happen to

@kenklave:  Do you happen to have a link where that is being talked about?

ewc58's picture

Nice Ag update Turd, Thanks

As Big Hat wants us to post about Silver and thinks it's a good idea to keep stackin', I repost this from yesterday. These are nice rounds, limited edition. Get a few tubes as they'll rise in value beyond standard Maples and ASE's... The first one in this series, the Timberwolf has already done this. I'd give you a price, but not surprisingly, Apmex doesn't have any in stock.

Coupon sale going on now at MPM to boot...

Canadian Silver Cougar
 
The 2012 installment in the Royal Canadian Mint's Wildlife Series can now be found in the 1 ounce Silver Maple Leaf category on our site. Supplies are limited, so get them while they last!
 
$4.00 off your purchase of $200.00 or more with coupon code: October4

$14.00 off your purchase of $750.00 or more with coupon code: October14

$44.00 off your purchase of $2,500.00 or more with coupon code: October44

Enter code during checkout for instant savings. Only one coupon may be used per order. If multiple orders are combined into a single shipment with a single shipping charge, only one coupon may be applied towards that transaction. Coupons will not be applied towards orders placed prior to 12 noon (Pacific time) on Thursday, October 20th.

 Coupon codes expire at 5pm (Pacific time) on Monday, October 31st.
 
¤'s picture

this seems pretty relevant

It's Baaack: FT Deutschland Pronounces Deutsche Mark's Return, Prices Itself At 4.11 DM

Curious what the talking heads will be discussing all weekend parallel to the joke that is the European Summit #1, not to be confused with summit #666? Here is the answer, courtesy of the FT Deutschland, where not too subtly, right next to a lede saying "the Euro rescue has turned into a farce", the publication has for the first time, set its price not in zEURo.qq but in Paul Tudor Jones' favorite currency: the Deutsche Mark, or 4.11 DM to be precise. And courtesy of the FTD, we now know the When Issued exchange rate for the EURDEM is: 1.95, the same as was locked at the EUR inception. Said otherwise, stick a fork in the euro, it's done.

zerohedge.com

Ferd Torgerson's picture

@ Peace Silver

Can't speak for other states but in Texas sales tax only applies to purchases of gold and silver coins under $1000.  I always make sure my purchases exceed $1000 for sales tax purposes and meet the minimum required for a cash or wire transfer purchase ($2000 for Provident Metals) since you get a discount for cash or wire transfer payments.

As to why the break point of $1000?  Not sure.  My guess is that the breakpoint is set to distinguish between one who wants to buy one coin (perhaps as a gift) versus one who is making a serious investment in precious metals.  I do know for example that if one goes into Macy's and buys a gold chain for one's spouse, sales tax applies and I don't believe it is waived if the cost exceeds $1000. 

RedRover's picture

Chaos in Greece

SilverWealth's picture

Silver shortage?

There's plenty of Silver available in California.

There are also plenty of Silver pumping stories on the presses. Supposedly there have been silver shortages everywhere for months now.

Before long I expect that we will hear of the Pentagon having large underground caches of Silver in secret storage bins deep in the 5th level basement next to their 24/7 Porn theatre.

If people want to know about 'silver shortages' just watch the premium and forget the noise. There is more noise on Wall Street and in the metals than the inside of a jet engine on full throttle.

mack520's picture

exp w/ MONEX

I've purchased buffaloes and junk bags from Monex in the distant past- long waits  for delivery every time. On top of that they call you up randomly. I now deal with APMEX. Pay by check- $10 shipping, never a hassle, never call unless you leave a message asking them to. Pailin has more exotic suggestions.

luv2stak's picture

more WHY

WHY... is there a capital gains tax on bullion?  Trading a 1 oz silver American Eagle for $38 -or-thereabouts in FRNs  is like trading a $100 USD bill for 5-$20s at the bank -- isn't it?? 

(Been lurking for awhile -- love this 'kinder-gentler' site even more than my previous favorite--ZeroHedge!)

¤'s picture

The German / French relationship

I don't need to repeat any history regarding when these two were mortal enemies not that long ago.

Now we have the Germans in a position of financial strength (it appears) and they are haggling or dictating to France on some levels under the guise of negotiating about the future of the EU and the Euro. It wasn't long ago that Germany had control of all of Europe and then some so the same thing playing out is more then ironic.  

If your France and Sarkozy-polean Bonaparte your not going to capitulate that easily and not in front of the world, which is exactly what's going on.

I've said it before like many others here that if I'm Germany, there is no way I bail out Greece (whom they invaded and occupied btw). I use this leverage at the moment that is becoming increasingly clearer and stronger day by day to do what I need to do for my country. TheD' Mark coming back strong at some point on it's own seems likely.

The currency/debt/credit war is like a low grade financial war and  repeat of WWII in some respects on a economic level.

Turd Ferguson's picture

SilverWealth,

MODERATOR

Try this: (note the word "unavailable")

http://www.perthmintbullion.com/au/Buy-Silver-Bars.aspx

And this from the Perth Mint blog:

  • MARCELO SAYS:

    To Bullion Blog



    I would like to know if the Mint has any schedule for production of Silver bars?



    Many thanks and regards

    Marcelo

  • October 19 2011

    RON CURRIE SAYS:

    Hi Marcelo



    Demand is so strong we are selling everything we can make at this time.



    Regards



    Ron Currie

    Sales & Marketing Director

Xty's picture

luv2stak

I absolutely agree - taxing money!  But here in Canada basically any transaction is taxed - if you pull out your wallet, the gov't wants a cut.

Vypuero's picture

Re/income Tax and Monex

I sent a PM to you re/monex - sounds like a bad deal.  Not ascribing any motives, just feel it is a bad deal when you can do much better using mini futures, options, and ETFs which are all well know, traded instruments with low premiums.

Could not agree more on repealing all income tax.  The sales tax would then make sense and be highly visible.

silverbill's picture

Thank you all for your

good work & especially thank you to the ones who have such good spirits on display for those of us who can use such demonstrations. :) This world is chock full of negativity & I try to sidestep it as much as possible. Imho prepping includes all possible facets & a big one for me is attitude. When my mind is right I can sit tight & to me it seems like I need the patience of a stone to weather some things.

I am long AEM. sigh...

Have a good weekend everybody.

Added: to the poster above asking about the Canadian firm that had to wait for 3 months for a 15 million ounce (refined) silver order. I believe that was in reference to Sprott Asset Mgt's order. IIRC, Sprott discussed this exact thing in a previous King World News interview.

out

SilverIsKing's picture

@NoSuckerNoBlood - Re: MONEX

I have an account at Monex that I use for trading and have had it for several years.  I've also purchased physical from them although they are not the only trading vehicle that I use and I don't buy my physical from them anymore.  Rather than clutter up Turd's space with our dialog, you can e-mail me at silverisking@aol.com and I'll e-mail you back with my opinion based on my experience with them.

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