Crime Scene Evidence

Loyal Turdite, tabberto, passed along this information earlier. He posted it in the comments of the previous blog post but I believe it is deserving of its own "sticky" post.

THESE GUYS ARE UNBELIEVABLE

OK - This is truly OUTRAGEOUS - FYI am blogging this here in Turdville before anywhere else as this is the number one forum for sensible PMetals discussion.  The below came into play on the 20th.....................

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6113-11

CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight Provides Temporary Relief from Large Swaps Trader Reporting for Physical Commodities

Washington, DC – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (Commission’s) Division of Market Oversight (Division) today issued a letter providing temporary relief from the requirements of the Commission’s regulations regarding large trader reporting of physical commodity swaps (§§20.3 and 20.4). Because this is the first time that swaps data is being collected, this temporary relief is intended to provide sufficient time to enable both the industry and the Commission to develop and refine systems and processes that will be able to report these complex transactions.

On July 22, 2011, the Commission published large trader reporting rules for physical commodity swaps and swaptions. The rules require daily reports from clearing organizations, clearing members and swap dealers, and become effective on September 20, 2011. The letter issued today provides temporary relief from reporting, as long as parties are making a good faith attempt to comply with the reporting requirements, until November 21, 2011, for cleared swaps, and January 20, 2012, for uncleared swaps. Upon the conclusion of applicable relief periods, such reporting parties must become fully compliant

...................

PLEASE EVERYONE email/call/write to the CFTC immediately and ask them what :

'a good faith attempt to comply with the reporting requirements' means.....especially seeing as there is an ongoing INVESTIGATION INTO SILVER MANIPULATION.  This CFTC release, the DAY BEFORE the smash, allowed the banks to go beyond speculative position limits and effectively be given cover to go as unhedged short as they like.  JPM apparently have 350 guys working on the ramifications of Dodd-Frank - imo clearly the class action lawsuit has them running for cover and they used their 'friends' at the CFTC to provide covering fire for them to try and exit as many shorts as possible before the (again delayed) speculative position limit changes come into play.  Please spread and circulate this story but more importantly put some serious heat on the CFTC themselves.

Tabberto

Having read and considered tabberto's comments, I'd like you to go back and re-read what I posted back on Sunday evening:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2506/whats-really-going

To save time, here are the salient points:

"Look, what do I know? I'm just a dope with a Macbook but, after a weekend of consideration and thought, here's what I believe:

1) Dodd-Frank and the pending civil lawsuit put "the fear of God" into JPM last spring. For the first time, they could see the writing on the wall for their ongoing, massive silver manipulation scheme.

2) They began covering their massive short position but, when no speculator selling and or profit-taking materialized, price quickly got away from them and they were forced to cover at higher and higher prices.

3) Sensing the risk of a runaway price, they orchestrated a huge, criminal $6 takedown of silver on the Sunday evening Globex, April 29.

4) This move started a cascade of selling from momentum-based, traditional and HFT algo traders.

5) Their friends and co-conspirators at the CME willfully played along by raising silver margins 5 times in 9 days.

6) Covering shorts at lower prices all the way down allowed JPM to significantly lessen their total silver short position. But they didn't get rid of all of it. Not even close.

7) Enter the CFTC and their next, scheduled meeting on 10/4 where, supposedly on the docket, is the discussion to finally mandate a timeline for the imposition of a strict, 1500-contract position limit in silver.

8) Caught flat-footed, JPM panics and institutes another ruthless attack in silver that is even greater in size and scope than the attacks of late April and early May. A 25% drop in 2 days!

9) By once again setting off algo-based sell signals, they are able to drive price substantially lower, all the while covering as many of their long-held shorts as the can without reversing the downward momentum.

10) Silver margin rates are now so high that the Comex has basically become a physical market. In the absence of speculators, there is little chance that silver will skyrocket again anytime in the near future. In this environment, JPM will be able to cover (buy) all of the shorts they'll need to, to be in compliance with Dodd-Frank. They'll be able to do so in an environment of stable prices, thereby alleviating the danger of steep financial losses, similar to what they incurred last spring.

11) Once position limits are implemented and JPM is, for all intents and purposes, out of silver, the price of silver will finally be free to trade. It will, in time, rally past $50 and move toward $100.

When will this be, you ask? Why don't you email Commissioner Chilton and/or Chairman Gensler. Maybe they can help you with that."

Now, if you want to continue to live in FantasyLand, where you believe that gold and silver are true, free and unmanipulated markets, knock yourself out. However, I will continue to present the opposite case to you every chance I get. If you are going to trade and stack precious metal, you must understand the powerful forces aligned against you.

Therefore, do not expect gold and silver to break through the area of MaxQ anytime soon and reach escape velocity. If, as I truly believe, the recent metals beatdown can be almost entirely attributed to the selfish manipulation of JPM and others in The Cartel, then don't go thinking you can pick a bottom anytime soon. Yes, there is a bottom coming and, yes, the metals are going to trade much, much higher. Eventually. However, this will not happen until The Cartel takes their feet off of our collective throats. Once they have sufficiently exited the metals markets by covering a vast amount of their long-standing shorts, price will finally explode. Until then, expect continued manipulation and lower prices.

The continual postponement of the imposition of position limits by the CFTC is simply allowing The Cartel the time needed to exit their shorts in an orderly fashion (from their perspective). Eventually, the CFTC will act but not until The Cartel gives them the green light. Our only hope for quicker action is the route tabberto lays out above. If you have the time, please email them. Better yet, take the time to use "snail mail" or even call them. Below is their contact info:

Chairman

Gary Gensler

202-418-5050

Commissioner

Scott O’Malia

202-418-5870

202-418-5550

Commissioner

Jill E. Sommers

202-418-5030

202-418-5067

Commissioner

Bart Chilton

202-418-5060

202-418-5620

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Three Lafayette Centre

1155 21st Street, NW

Washington, DC 20581

When you contact them, please remember to remain polite. Screaming and name-calling will get you nowhere. 

We must continue to stand against this blatant and criminal manipulation of the precious metals markets.  TF

351 Comments

ggnewmex's picture

First

Will be sending some form of mail out.

Yeah, I was niave to think that the free market was free. It is so obvious. What makes me wonder is, because it is so obvious, how does it continue. It must be.... the sheeple....???

One has to assume that China is very aware of all this. It is still a communist country.... last I checked, not necessarily our best political ally..... though we are grateful for the products

WeThePeople1776's picture

Just another opportunity to

Just another opportunity to keep buying.  Regular buys of PMs don't produce half as much stress as playing markets for short term gains.  It feels good to have tangible wealth in such a small package.

I wouldn't mind seeing PMs get knocked down to $28.50ish again.

tko's picture

CFTC always finds new and

Wow, the CFTC always finds new and exciting ways to disappoint!

So does this mean that Nov 21st or Jan 20th will be big days as the waiver expires?  Or is it naive to expect the CFTC  not to do more of the same to extend this whole mess again?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Absolutely

MODERATOR

My point is: If you are certain that Cartel is behind 99% of this latest beatdown, do not look to aggressively buy until they are finished. I still think that $24 and $1480 are not only possible but likely. 

Old Major's picture

Great info.  I'll trying

Great info, I'll call and send an email. 

SilverFocker's picture

Those

who make the rules are best served by breaking them in the best interest of themselves.

We may have to play by their rules right now, but there will come a time when this no longer matters.

SRV - ES339's picture

CFTC

Great catch Tabberto...

Can anyone provide email addresses?

croc987's picture

PROSECUTE CORRUPT CFTC MEMBERS

CFTC and SEC members have been co-conspirators for years (with the bankers) in openly and illegally manipulating the silver market and suppressing the silver price. They have continuously and purposefully delayed implementation of Dodd-Frank position limits since December 31, 2010.   This is blatant and intentional malfeasance in office, corruption, and conspiracy to commit fraud.  It is a total disregard and abrogation of their fiduciary duty to protect the public.  Honest investors have been defrauded over and over by this market manipulation.  What would be the result if the stock market were openly manipulated into a 30% crash twice within 6 months?  Federal prosecutors should indict them immediately, and they should be made to answer for their crimes in a U. S. District Court.  They should then be replaced with public servants who take their duties seriously.

jackmeoff's picture

I say we use RICO to put the SEC on trial with

It is almost the same thing.

jmsvett's picture

Gold producers

What is to prevent the gold producers from refusing to sell at these prices? Or colluding like OPEC?

If i were a producer - would come up w/ made up production problems.

pforth's picture

One thing I never really understood..

Perhaps someone can help me understand this... how does one exit short positions, while at the same time driving the price down?  It seems to me that to drive the price down you have to enter new additional short positions and that covering short positions would bring the price back up.

STATCH's picture

This is why its always good

This is why its always good to keep some dry powder available. I actually am really excited about the last few weeks in the PMs. It's a true gift from JPM to let us buy silver at such great prices. 

We have seen just a taste of the true potential of the PMs in this global turmoil so don't let this scare any you from investing in precious metals! This is the once in a lifetime opportunity to get an amazing long term position.

ggnewmex's picture

seriously....

We are nobody's on the world stage, just pawns.

Whether short or long, the collective "they" will win.

So, my belief is, we all must just continue to buy, AND HOLD, the more people do this, the better collectively for "us" it will be. It is just a merry-go-round. Do you want to be on the right side, EVENTUALLY.... keep buying, because the fundamental issue is decreasing supply. That will not change.... and no doubt, "they" will be on the right side when that happens too.... just that for once, we will be too

G

71185208's picture

What to look for

Between that ftaplphaville article Turd posted,  http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/14/677021/why-gold-forward-rate-inversion-is-important/, and this, it seems we need to be super vigilant to look for other signals.

I'm not sure I completely understand the mechanics of gold leasing, but after reading that article and trying to scan a few articles this afternoon it seems to me that we might be able to get a better grip of potential raids if we look at gold leasing rates and corresponding spikes in short selling of GLD that occur at the same time, and other such shenanigans.

Just BTW people often talk about a negative lease rate for gold, and when they say that they don't necessarily mean it's negative in absolute terms, they mean it is lower than the LIBOR rate.

"A negative gold lease rate actually means a negative rate relative to LIBOR. I couldn't find a source where this is clearly explained, but the correction appears to be right. In other words, a gold lease rate of -0.25% means that the gold lease rate is 0.25% less than LIBOR.

Still, a negative gold lease rate means that gold borrowers can make a guaranteed riskless profit. They borrow gold, sell it on the spot market, buy gold futures, and invest the proceeds in bonds. The gold borrower has a free put option to declare bankruptcy and default on the lease. The proceeds of the short sale could be invested in riskier assets than bonds."

For those who want to know more (as I do) here are some of the articles I found that attempt to explain gold leasing in a bit more detail:

http://www.rapidtrends.com/gold-carry-trade-what-is-it/

http://fskrealityguide.blogspot.com/2008/07/gold-lease-rate-is-negative.html

This is one I am still getting through:

http://www.silveraxis.com/commentary/gold_silver_leasing.pdf

And finally, for anyone who doubts whether PMs are manipulated, watch this and tell me if this is a fishy response or not:

Lord Koos's picture

Not just silver

I cribbed these quotes from the excellent Jesse's Cafe Americain blog.

-------------------

"We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. 

Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded. 

The US Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U.K."

Sir Eddie George, Bank of England, September 1999

"That day the U.S. announced that the dollar would be devalued by 10 percent. By switching the yen to a floating exchange rate, the Japanese currency appreciated, and a sufficient realignment in exchange rates was realized. Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake."

Paul Volcker, Nikkei Weekly 2004

 
---------
 
You can bet your ass that the recent steep run up in gold is highly embarrassing to western central banks, and that as the above quotes show, they will do everything in their power to control the price of AU. It could be a rough winter for everyone but remember that rigging markets isn't the same a fixing them... the fundamentals still hold. And who knows what will happen when the PAGE opens in China next month, giving the COMEX some much-neede competition.
Dr G's picture

Well, all this does is

Well, all this does is solidify the reasons why we stack. Picture it this way, as I'm sure you have already done in the past:

1) Undoubtedly many stackers began stacking earlier this year, when silver was in the $33-37 range. Many of those undoubtedly purchased all the way up until $49. As a result, many of them are very much so underwater at this point. Purchasing now, and down to $26/24 (or wherever we end up) is a blessing for them. If they can make significant purchases compared to the size of their existing stack, then they will lower their DCA into a nicer range. My DCA is low, but I buy almost every week, so I plenty of $48 silver in my stack. Purchasing at $28 is a good way to bring that portion back down.

2) In regards to JPM and the CFTC and Chilton et al, all this does is reconfirm my personal reasons for stacking. If this wasn't something for me to be involved in, then the slimeballs wouldn't waste their time with it either. ​ It's almost as if they are saying "Yeah, nothing to see here with the precious metals, you guys don't want any of this stuff, but we, the banksters, sure will spend a lot of time manipulating the market and suppressing the prices."  Sure, they make money on the downhill slide, but there is more to it than that. These metals WILL be more precious than we can imagine as time moves on.

ewc58's picture

Mind blowingly great post Turd!

This is serious as a heart attack and everyone should do EXACTLY as you recommend here. Today.

Just when you think these guys couldn't stoop any lower for their Morgue Masters. These fine public CFTC serpents never fail to live down to expectations.

They're all crooked folks, get used to the facts, pick up the pieces, and go from there. No reason to despair, it's just now the shields are down and we can see things and people for who and what they really are. We're seeing what really IS at this point in time. That is better than seeing what we want to see.

Just don't make too big a bet on things staying this way too long though- - not all the variables are in the EE's domain to control. Not by a long shot.

Dr G's picture

ewc58 is right on the money.

ewc58 is right on the money. Don't despair. Don't ever act like you don't know what is going on. It's a rigged game at this point. If you DON'T know that, then do some research. If you don't like the results, then get out. But for those who have done research, don't cry about it. Don't cry about the prices. Just buy more. Not paper, metal. Stuff you have on your possession.

One day the smoke will clear, but take advantage of the here and now to make yourself some serious coinage by purchasing some serious coinage. For some of us that will be 5 oz. For others it will be 5,000 oz. Whatever it is, make your move after you've come to the conclusion that you are in this for the long haul. Then you will be rewarded.

Sneed Hearn's picture

Silliness

In my view posts of this sort are just plain silly as they are based on the 100% wrong view that this country is something other than the largest banana republic in world history. Asking the CFTC to make believe they are a regulatory agency presumes the rule of law is in effect. I mean, come on, Turd, do you really believe this? Economist Murray Rothbard put it best: “the State is nothing more nor less than a bandit gang writ large.” Amen. And then there's Mencken's take: "Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats." The time is past to stop pretending - and someday I'll take my own advice.

exiledbear's picture

78% of 1920 is 1490 or thereabouts

That would be a perfectly reasonable garden variety fibonacci retracement.

Again, I would watch the actual hold-it-in-your-hand markets too for non-confirmation. I think at some point it will be almost inevitable, when people finally figure out that paper gold never ever can be exchanged for real gold, they'll just stop participating in the paper markets altogether. That's the real danger that the boyz don't quite understand yet - what happens when they're the only ones still in those markets, picking each other's pockets?

Hang on to your physical position. It's a bull market, you know.

York Rite's picture

Red September

There's a familiar sight, gold down versus every major currency on the planet according to Kitco's home page. From the euro that stumbles from one crisis to the next, to the irradiated yen, to the anaemic pound and of course, the crappiest of them all, the US dollar. There's enough red there for a bull of a different kind to emit a disapproving snort.

I had hoped that Bob Chapman would at last be proved right for once this month with an immediate turnaround after the usual OE skullduggery was over with yesterday but alas not.

Mention of Tabberto, our PAGE man, oozed confidence when he stated much the same last week.

Tabby, should you read this, I need some reassurance. Are we still set to have an up week, or are we headed below Sinclair's formerly impregnable low of $1584 again?

HuskerFan's picture

How does it really work?

If JPM has a large short position and they are trying to reduce/cover this short position, how exactly do they manipulate the price down without increasing their short position?  Don't they have to add to their short position to get price to drop?  If they then cover, won't this just bring the price back up.  Doesn't it just balance?  How does this allow them to cover their shorts at a lower price?

Mikey's picture

CFTC,Made several calls, got

CFTC,

Made several calls, got machines of course. Be surprised if I get a call back. I just emailed Senator Rubio. Email all of our CONgress critters and ask them how this is possible. Of course we all know how. $$$ talks, little guy f$%^@$# walks. Bastards.

¤'s picture

Thanks TF and Tabberto

Read his post on the last thread and it's right on.

It can't hurt to try and contact anyone but I don't think they care or care to get involved in something this large in scope. Seriously, if they have no clue by now or have not done anything by now, they never will.

That doesn't mean give up. It's just my opinion.

None of these long tenured pol.'s have ever gone after the system at work out of political survival instincts. What's going on in the markets is huge. The Fed. giveth and they taketh away. They all know it and won't get in the way of "it".

The survival instincts of "it" can't be underestimated. We're seeing it in action.

ivars's picture

As it should be

See? Silver below 30 USD?  Fluctuating around 30+-3 as expected from long term silver chart:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=40#p31020

and posted earlier as short term prognosis.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=560#p34264

Nothing special. As it should be ( of course there is criminal manipulation-but that is included in the prediction chart by the nature of the price time chart being the essence and results of all events and actions around a commodity).

So if one wants to profit, shouting won't help (except emotionally) , but following the long term trend will.

There should not be any truly radical moves in silver this year. But the best time to buy is every time silver moves below 30 during Sept-Oct. That might be the last period in our lives it happens.

Mickey's picture

Google Chazzer

JPM and co are Chazzers

Zyphen's picture

Infrequent Visitor

I've followed this blog off and on for a long time (since a year before it moved). While I often do not agree with the reasoning behind why moves occur, I do like to compare notes on support/resistance levels with this "Turd" fellow and other traders/bloggers in the PM game.

I just want to make a few observations here to help out some would-be traders and overleveraged perma-bulls:

1. The market is always right. Why? Because you're in it. It doesn't care about your rationalizations or reasoning. The price is what it is because the market says so. End of discussion.

2. Everyone on here is small-time. All of you put together won't make a fraction of a cent of difference in the price of gold. You can buy all the physical you want from all the small time dealers you can find. It doesn't matter. What moves the price are banks and sovereign funds. If there's a "conspiracy" to keep the price down, then there had to have been a big "conspiracy" to move the price up because news flash: you didn't matter at all in that move. As a plankton in the sea, you just want to be lucky enough to ride that wave when the tide comes in. At least people who kept talking up China and asian funds are thinking right in terms of scale. Do the rest of you honestly think that gold has gone parabolic off your meager interests? A lot of that so-called "Evil Empire" is made up of buyers. People who question the JPM naked short rumours are asking the right questions. How can smart money be so dumb? The answer: they're not.

3. Gold is moving with the market, not opposite it. All those fantasies about gold holding up when everything else tanks? Where's your evidence? We're moving in tandem with the general market (and overall worse off). The market is telling you plain as day that when the shit hits the fan (in terms of Greece or whatever else comes down the pipeline) that it'll just be a repeat of 2008. Gold and Silver will tank along with everything else. Cash is still going to be king until the market says otherwise.

4. Physical market? That'll never BE the market unless the global economy actually collapses. If you're 100% in physical, it's because you are betting that armageddon occurs. Even noted gold bugs like Marc Faber only recommend 25% allocation. Why? Because it's an insurance policy, not an investment. Frankly, if you think it's the end of the world and there will be anarchy, why stop at gold? Bypass that and go directly for the goods you'd trade that gold for: food, weapons, water, gas, etc.

5. Opportunity Cost. Relative Value. Paper has value because people believe it has value. Gold has value because people believe it has value. Of course it matters when and at what price you exchange one for the other because you could have gotten a LOT MORE of that other if you did the exchange at the right time. That's the entire point of the market or any market. Right now, people trust paper more. You go to a store, they want paper (or plastic). If you're willing to wait years and don't want to do anything with your money in terms of other investments or purchases, carry on. Otherwise, you'd better pay attention to what the market is telling you. And the market is saying it doesn't like PMs right now.

Hackswell's picture

How the EE manipulates prices lower

JPM doesn't have to do ALL the selling (or shorting).  They pick a nice quiet time with low volume (3AM EDT), and sell a bunch.  Say X contracts, to make a big move.  They start a _psychological_ panic with this whereby weak longs bail out in even stronger volume.  Say Y contracts _additional_ are unloaded due to the panic.  Then JPM can easily "cover" X+Y contracts for the "cost" of X contracts, and still be price neutral.

JPM can do this due to human nature and psychology, not due to balance of numbers.

Marblesonac's picture

Snead

I'm ready for the French style revolution to begin, and for those that deserve it, to lose their heads.

bensgone's picture

How they may have stomped the price of silver.

“Last Thursday, the COMEX announced an increase in margin requirements”…..

“In early September, gold leases up to three months maturity turned to negative interest rates….”

“it is entirely possible that European central banks of nations in the Eurozone could be liquidating some of their gold reserves.”

“it is possible that the U.S. government may have informed the Chinese government in advance that is was preparing a major intervention to suppress gold and silver prices and asked the Chinese to refrain from jumping in to purchase physical metals until the market had been pushed near the bottom.”

“it is possible that the U.S. government may have directly intervened in suppressing prices, through one or more agencies that are not drawing close scrutiny from Congress or the public. The prime suspect would be the Exchange Stabilization Fund”

The above comments excerpted from the article below entitled 

http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=24149

“Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.”
“Alan Greenspan, US Federal Reserve Bank, 24 July 1998”

“As an aside, the lease rates for gold went negative about four days before the recent bear raids in the metals markets began.  This was most likely due to an excess of fresh supply being offered on the markets by the Western central banks. The bullion banks saw this and dropped their bids to take full advantage of the knowledge of this operation, or more properly, subsidy.”

“The central bank gold is leased to the bullion banks, like the market makers at the LBMA. Among these are JPM, GS, HBSC, BofA, DB, and Barclays. The gold is then sold into the bullion markets in London, or used as collateral for leveraged paper transactions.   With a lag, this additional supply affects the futures and ETF trades with additional leverage in New York.”

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/09/interesting-series-of-events-at-end-of.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

If any or all of the above excerpts from these articles are true, then we are in deep, deep doo doo.  These are extremely powerful factors that right now is depressing the PMs.  They have managed to pull out the big guns in this war against PMs.  Gold it seems is their final weapon.  This is almost like the old days when the central banks would dump 4 to 5 hundred tons of central bank gold each year to suppress the price of the PMs.  I think that this was what came out of the G20 meetings, of which China was a part.  There is no doubt that China has pulled their bids and are letting the price fall as long as they get the gold that is being leased or sold by central banks of Europe.  Italy having the largest gold reserves of the PIIGS.  This may be the reserves of the central bank of Greece.  Where this could take the prices of PMs, god only knows.  How long this depression of the PM will last the same.  This is doing huge damage to the short term prospects for the PMs.  This could also could be taking place because of quarterly options expiry on Friday.  This has to be the last gasp of a dying Euro and the weaker of the European countries that bought into the “Euro fiat/debt scam”.  This is the ultimate desperate move to save the European Union.  Countries whose politicians allow this to happen to them should throw out every treasonous one of them, as this will turn them into poverty stricken debt slaves for generations.

For me, these factors are major game changing events.  It seems that the EE just never runs out of bullets and catches virtually everyone off guard.

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