Shakeout

The Turd awoke this morning to the disturbingly familiar LBMA/Comex beatdown pattern we've seen so frequently in the past. This stuff is sure getting old but, unwittingly, it appears that The Cartel is about to hand us an extremely attractive opportunity.

First, take a look at this 5-minute chart. It's a classic, coordinated attack pattern. Word leaks on the LBMA that The Cartel is going to raid the metals today. Down spikes ensue as those with foreknowledge prepare for the event. The Comex opens and BOOM!

paper_9-19amgold5.jpg

If I were you, I would print this chart and tape it above my computer. In the future whenever you see this pattern, you'll know what's coming.

OK, onto the expected buying opportunity. It's not today...at least I don't think so...but it is coming very soon. My problem is that I have very little cash. I foolishly plunged last week when I thought we'd seen a bottom at 1800. Oops. I'm also long a bunch of Nov11 soybean calls that look like they have the potential to generate some continued losses to pair up versus all of my gains from the PMs earlier this year. Oh well, whaddayagonnado?

First, let's look at gold. It could stop and reverse right near last week's lows. It could. I don't think it will, however. Let's put the likelihood of a turn near 1770-80 at 25%. More likely is a drop all the way toward the trendline from August 8. What is the significance of that date, you ask? It is the low from the gap higher opening after the U.S debt downgrade. See the charts below. At any rate, I think it's 75% likely that gold falls all the way 1740 or so. At that point, if I had any cash, I'd be all over it. Unfortunately, I don't so I'm reduced to being a very interested spectator in this one.

paper_9-19amgold2.jpgpaper_9-19amgold6.jpg

Silver has fallen in line and looks roughly the same. Recall last week I mentioned that crude looked subject to a drop back to 82-85 and, if that happened, it would surely take a toll on silver. Well, nuts, that seems to be playing out. IF gold drops toward 1740, silver will have to deal with continued selling pressure. However, it now has a chart that is similar to gold. It should have substantial support near $38 or so. You can plainly see it on the longer term charts below.

paper_9-19amsilv2.jpg

paper_9-19amsilv6.jpgpaper_9-18pmsilvw_0.jpg

Again, please understand that the days of this crappy, LBMA/Comex paper metal monopoly are numbered. "The futures 'tail' will only wag the spot 'dog'" for a little while longer. Be patient and have faith. Use this weakness against them. Buy physical and take delivery. It is truly your only protection against the madness ahead.  TF

230 Comments

PM Stackin' Fool's picture

First!

First!

Vincent's picture

Thanks TF!

Thanks TF!

Dr G's picture

Thanks, Turd! BTFD!

Thanks, Turd! BTFD! The manipulation is mind-numbing at this point, but I suppose we had to see it coming. Silver moves higher into the close on Friday, then Globex/Sydney/Asia open with a whimper last night (like they've done for the past month). Silver is basically traded within 20 cents all night long in Asia. There was no strength there and no buying either, for whatever reason. I thought Asia loved the metals?

Maybe Asia is just smart enough to know as long as they do moderate buying the Crimex will keep lowering the price and giving them a discount.

madgstrader's picture

couldn't agree more

The gift that keeps on giving

No doubt in my mind that what we just saw was a takedown at the usual time. Volumes fading and the fix is in.  Here's your buy opp:
 

gift.png
bensgone's picture

Same ole crap week in and week out

Friday September 16, 2011 6 pm EST.

In retrospect I think everything in the last 12 days was orchestrated by the global financial elites to prevent a cataclysmic global financial meltdown.  The target was Friday the 16 the “Quadruple witching hour” ( D-Day) for the financial markets.  Imagine what would have happened if their beloved DOW had melted down.  What options and futures and derivatives and their value would have plummeted, had this occurred?  What dominoes might have been fallen as the result of all of the uncertainty over the Euro debt crisis?  The next “D-day” will be in November.  So, let us be forewarned that EE will likely strike then also, especially if we have similar conditions prevailing upon the global markets at that time too.  This latest central bank coordinated prop up of the Euro banking establishment is to extend three months, just in time for the next “Quadruple Witching hour” the will occur on the third Friday of that month.  There are patterns here that we must learn to prepare ourselves for the next market decision we might make.  There are a whole list of times and reasons for the EE to strike.  Next week has lots of stupid meetings again,, I think the G27 and the FMOC then. So, who knows what these bastards have planned for the PM’s.  The urgency to mash the price should not be as great as it has been the last 12 days, we hope. 

Monday September 19, 2011 10:30 am EST.

Well, well, here we are  again with “Mash ‘em down Monday” morning when the EE starts its waterfall price hammer smashing PM’s, right on time, not long after the Crimex opens, just in time for the two day FMOC meeting starting Tomorrow the 20th.  I have never seen a September loaded up with so much crap.  Endless meetings by the “Big Boys of Finance”, constant jawboning the markets into submission, and more bailouts, and talk of such, than you can shake a stick at.   Nice way to start off the opening of the strong season for PM’s.  Will there be another “Turn around Tuesday” like last week.  Who knows, that seems to be the pattern.  Turd let you know last night that this smashdown was possible, and true to form, he is spot on once again.

Also, notice that this attack begins in earnest early this morning when the “Lousy London LMBA” opens its criminal doors at 3:30 am EST.  Right now, we have Obummer screaming his nonsense into the air waves.  NOT GOOD at all ever, especially when it’s  about the economy.  There could be a breakout in PM's this week but only when the EE stop hammering and banging on the price to keep it down for their silly speeches and meetings, and when there "appears" to be some resolution, albeit temporary, to the European debt crisis.  Just remember, this is all orchestrated theater to keep you off guard and ready to sell your positions out of fear.  Never give in, never give up.  There is only one "safe haven" left.  Only one lifeboat available.  Every Turdite knows what that is.  Need I say more??

Tesla's picture

Thanks as always Turd

FUCOMEX - BTFD (waiting for the bounce)

ScottJ's picture

Evidence of Gold Supercycle? (Repost)

Repost From Last Thread, as I am wondering if others think this as well?

When gold hits highs against all currencies, it will trigger an acceleration upwards as all fiat currencies lose trust relative to sound money ~ Mike Maloney Paraphrased.

--

Since the safe-haven currency of the Swiss Franc has intentionally devalued itself a couple of weeks ago (which is owned by the global western banking empire, it is not independent), it very well suggests that gold has become the official safe-haven.  If this is to be, there should be evidence... Proof may be found in the fact that all gold prices in all western world fiat currencies are now directionally correlated.

Very interesting recent development, as usually a US Dollar gain on the Euro will cause Euro Gold to go up, but dollar gold to go down, in a relative manner.  Look at what the past 24 hours of gold has done in the major western fiat currencies.... and with a global bailout coming this week, is it finally time to see the super-cycle kick off in high gear?  Is this the moment that Mike Maloney had been describing?  It appears that there is a strong chance in my opinion.

http://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

US Dollar

Australian Dollar:

Canadian Dollar:

Swiss Franc:

Euro:

The Great Britain Pound:

Japanese Yen:

--

Interesting times fellow Turdites.  Interesting times....

tallydynasty's picture

Santa has a 1764 angel which

Santa has a 1764 angel which was a rock last week.  

question's picture

Jim Comiskey video

Repost from last blog;

Gives a shout out to tfmetalsreport.com; grins a bit saying it's by Turd. LOL

edit; other link was just the image, duhfrown

Bay of Pigs's picture

NEM

I noticed it hit a 52 week high earlier today. I could be wrong, but I don't remember a miner doing that in the midst of a raid before.

Tesla's picture

@Question (your links broken)

Jim Comiskey gives us a shout out (we love your stuff Jim!)

Haole's picture

For the SVM'ers out there.

Sorry if already posted.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/alfred-little-takes-down-silvercorp-again-full-report-detailing-companys-substantially-inflated

Looks like ZH is overwhelmed again...

ScottJ, thanks for your tremendous posts, I (we?) hope you're right.  ;)

exiledbear's picture

Still in the correction

Won't be obvious until at least a week has passed that we're out of it. Could be out of it right - now. Won't really know until a week has gone by. That's part of the rules of the game. Sucks, donnit?

Every bull market has these little "Are you sure?" interludes. Well, are you sure? Do you have any doubts? Don't you want to let go of what you're holding onto? Doesn't it hurt? Wouldn't it feel better just to let it go?

And I've been here long enough to tell you, if you let go now, it will hurt you much worse than it does right now.

It's a bull market, you know.

LevelHeaded's picture

why do you delete some forums from the site?

Perhaps you could ask for donations to fund your trading loses.

Hoping to learn's picture

Light'n the mood

Along the road of everyday life

We come across a little strife

We have a gun, we have a knife

and by the way, I have a wife.

I check my pantry to see what's lacking

a quick look in the safe to see my stacking

Our government you know, has no backing

Our economic system...it is a cracking

But when the sh*t hits the fan

The precious metals they better not ban

I've stacked and saved as best I can

I'll try to step up and "Be the Man"

So grab a little silver and grab a little gold

Some ETF's and miners, options if your bold

No matter what happens, Don't let your feet go cold

Just remember Turds advise, keep stacking and HOLD

TitanAe's picture

question for turd!

Turd what are your feelings on the high volumes on miners ie slw at close of friday slw volume surged to 23 million plus along with other stocks ..

thanks

pforth's picture

Miners doing ok...

Wow, on a day with a big PM smackdown AND the DOW down big too, some of the miners are actually UP!

SLW +1.8%

EXK +.2%

SSRI +2.1%

AUY +0.05%

GDX -- Breakeven

Dr Jerome's picture

Light'n

@ Hoping...

Are you Afrum in disguise? a few exclamation points and a run-on paragraph and I might be convinced.

thanks for the light'ning!

bensgone's picture

Chinese in a box

They open this new exchange in China and everyone expects and hopes for some change, thinking that this will help to improve the price discovery mechanism of PM's away from the control of the Western central bankers.  Well, so far this has not happened.  It appears from  what we have thus far observed this month, they are firmly in control of the global markets.  This is confirmed by the PM's, since nothing at all has changed as far as prices there are concerned.  They seem to have ever more power to smash the prices at will.

As long as the Chinese sit on 3 trillion dollars worth of dollar reserves, they are not going to move too strongly against the dollar, or upset the apple cart.  Clearly, the Chinese want to move away from the massive dollar reserves they have built up over the last twenty years, and are buy up everything in sight they can get their collective hands on, including gold, silver, and miners.  But, make no mistake, they are not going to do anything to cause the prices of PM's soar and have a very strong vested interest in suppression too. 

The Chinese have paid a heavy price to be a part of the Global financial community so that there could be this massive transfer of jobs, technology, and wealth to their country.  They had to sell  their souls to the western central bankers to get where they are.  They are just as dependent upon the global fiat monetary system as is any nation on the planet.  They are in a box from which there is no escape.  It will be when there is a total collapse of the dollar, that they will make their move.  They have the industrial clout now to outperform any economy in the world, but will the collapse of the western economies drag them down with it, and for how long?  These are huge questions that can only be answered in time.

Tesla's picture

@LevelHeaded

WTF? which forum are you talking about?

BTW - look at this: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2394/little-help  (and feed the Turd please!)

[EDIT] Oh, and thanks man! Don't see you on main street very much any more, where you been hanging out?

ScottJ's picture

An Awakening of a Generation

The irate minority who is willing to start the brush-fires of liberty has been rooted.  This man's philosophies of the world woke me up to the injustices of the world, allowing me to further see the inner workings of the deceit.

I am not a fan of the political process, and I do not think that one man can change anything but himself.... and therefore I have my doubts/grievances about the blind hope that even Ron Paul supporters may have.... but he is spreading the philosophy, and awakening young souls.  I trust that many here may agree with me or may be finding themselves doing so in the coming days.

And how this relates to gold and silver, he is the most pro-gold/silver image out there (IMO).  He loaded up on gold at 35$ an oz when he saw what had just taken place in 1971.  He has been stacking and holding for a long time I am sure!

Be right and sit tight....

With all things in life, including perspective.

My Generation is blessed to have such a modern day philosopher to learn from, regardless of your political affiliation.

Thank you Ron Paul.

SilverLeaf's picture

The miners are holding up pretty well...

...in the face of deep red day in both the metals and general equities. Seems like a good sign, no?

Monedas's picture

The 600 million Socialist Super Bureaucracy !

They've been living, up trickle at the Fiat Fountain for 100 years ! Don't think they are going to forfeit their privileges ! We're talking teachers, firefighters, librarians and the local beat cop.......amongst many others, worldwide ! Your plump and smug neighbors who can afford to be nice in their condescending way ! They even contribute to famine relief ! The enemy is amonst us and they seem like nice people ! Most of them won't admit to their privileged status......but many are hoarding with your tax dollars ! When they get a million dollar retirement cashout before they double dip.......some of them plow it into PMs ! Monedas 2011 Take that velvet slipper off my neck ! devil

Clubfoolish's picture

Counter arguments please?

Dr Jerome's picture

ScottJ I appreciate your

ScottJ

I appreciate your support of Paul. If we vote, we have to pick one of the names. Of all the candidates out there, I see Paul as our closest ally. Not that I think he can save us...  

Looks like Palin may be out, if old style scandals matter anymore. story here  I don't see her recovering from this one.

Obama's speech today was offensive. He talked to us like we are in the first grade: "Its just not fair."  Rambling, much repeating and stumbling over his words at times. I think his handlers finally noticed that people are calling him "the Teleprompter" and they are steering him away from it.  Nothing worse than a "canned speech."  

I much prefer canned bacon.

I better stop procrastinating and go grade student assignments. Have a great day trading & stacking everyone!

Puck T. Smith's picture

RE: Counter arguments please?

I am but an egg, however if you corrected that chart of his for inflation it might look different.

What cost $48.70 in 1980 would cost $127.16 in 2010.

What cost $49.76 in 2010 would cost $19.06 in 1980.

I had to use 2010 'cause 2011 inflation numbers are not available yet.

meegoreng1's picture

Thanks Turd!

Always so good to hear from you. It seems to me that this week the TA is not going to be as effective in light of the huge  events   coming up (Bermonkey's 2 day meeting, possible Greek default etc.)

I do want to let you know though that this my favorite website now. I visit it regularly. The contributors here are in their top forms when they make their postings. Please keep them coming.

Thank you all!

Dr Jerome's picture

On counterarguments

@clubfoolish,

The pure  technical analysis is most helpful in "normal markets."  The writer has neglected the variables of  "extraordinary times" with Europe falling apart, and the "general fear of citizens" who are looking for a safe haven. Balance that against the cartel manipulation and I think the short term is very difficult to predict. could go either way. I am sticking with Turd's chart that shows the uptrending lower line of the channel as strong support. that seems to be where buyers are waiting. perhaps we will test it.

thanks for asking

tpbeta's picture

@Clubfoolish

Both those corrections (1980 and 2011) and one of the spikes (1980) were brought about by market manipulation.  This spike was brought about by loose monetary policy. PMs will crash IMHO when monetary policy tightens and that's not going to be for a while.

RedRover's picture

Re: Counter arguments please?

I don't buy it, b/c I believe in the paradigm shift & that we're moving
to new highs, by the end of the year. Gold will pull us up. Just hold
on tight; a lot of volatility (on the way), cheers!

In a lot of ways going down is easier than going up, b/c if you've got
the time on expiries; then.. just wait it out (justifying sitting tight
w/ the paper loss you'd have to take.

On the way up, it's like.. when do you say when, what is enough.
I think it all comes back to faith. I have faith that the dollar is
being diluted and hence gold & silver should inflate, as well.

I'd almost suggest logging offline and checking out, until Thursday or so.
 

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