The Latest From Sprott

I just received this email update from Sprott Asset Management. A must read for all invested in miners.

If you are having difficulty viewing this email properly, please click here:
http://www.industrymailout.com/Industry/View.aspx?id=301954&q=357297770&qz=992495

SEPTEMBER 2011
Markets at a Glance
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Gold Stocks: Ready, Set,…

By:  Eric Sprott & David Baker

Last week, the HUI Gold Index marked a new all-time high as it surpassed 600. Recent gold equity investors were undoubtedly happy with this move, but for longer-term holders, the recent strength is actually somewhat disappointing. If you review the chart below, you’ll notice that while the gold price has almost doubled since early 2008, the HUI Index has appreciated by a mere 22% over the same period (see Chart A). If the HUI was justified at 500 in early ’08, it should surely be justified at 1,000 today, given the appreciation of the gold price over that time. So why have the equities lagged?

Chart A

A_Gold-and-HUI_IMO.jpg

Source:  Bloomberg

First and foremost: the sell-side’s abysmal gold price estimates. Table 1 shows the average gold price that analysts are using to value gold equities today. While the futures market is comfortably forecasting a continuation of today’s levels, the majority of sell-side analysts refuse to update their gold price estimates to reflect its recent strength. A rising gold price is normally a bad sign for the broader equity markets, and generally indicates a bearish trend. As bears ourselves, we’re completely fine with this, and invest accordingly. But the sell-side has difficulty pairing bearishness with new underwriting opportunities. It doesn’t mean you have to believe their price forecasts however.

Table-1_IMO.jpg

The second reason is gold’s volatility. The amount of paper gold and silver contracts that trade on the futures and equities exchanges still dwarf the amount of actual physical trading that takes place. Paper markets continue to set price discovery – thereby allowing for dramatic volatility with little or no influence from actual physical fundamentals. In the LBMA market, for example, market participants traded an average 19.6 million ounces of gold PER DAY in July 2011.1,2 Keep in mind that the total gold mine production in 2010, globally, was approximately 86.5 million ounces. Global gold mine production is not expected to increase significantly year-over-year, so the LBMA is essentially trading a year’s worth of production in less than a week. And this is just ONE market. When you add the COMEX futures and gold ETFs, the paper trading volume becomes absurdly high. When price discovery is dictated by levered paper contracts with no physical backing, it’s extremely easy and relatively inexpensive to jostle the spot price around. The result for gold has been many days of extreme downside volatility, despite a strong and consistent overall upward trend. Investors don’t like volatility – and the constant whipsawing has probably kept many of them away from the gold equity sector as a result.

Thirdly – investors still remember how badly gold equities got crushed in 2008. There was a reason they sold off so aggressively however – they were the most profitable positions investors owned going into the ‘08 crisis. Gold equities had enjoyed a strong bull trend going back to 2001, with the HUI Index appreciating by 980% from its November 2000 low through to August 2008. Investor behaviour is fairly consistent – when panic hits, you sell your winning positions first.

Something has changed recently, however. A new divergence has arisen in the precious metals equity market – a subtle, but plainly evident shift in recent daily performance. On Wednesday, August 10th, for example, the Dow dropped 4% while gold stocks rallied 3%, for a delta of 7% on the day. That is significant outperformance, and not what we have come to expect on an equity market down day. Gold stocks, as represented by the HUI Index, also seem to be breaking away from their traditional correlation with the spot gold price. On August 29th, spot gold dropped 2.16%, while the stocks fell by only 0.81%. On September 7th, gold fell by 3.09%, while gold stocks rose by 0.33%. These small differences indicate a new trend forming. While gold’s daily volatility is expected to continue, we may be entering a new phase where the stocks react less harshly on gold down days, and outperform gold on days of strength.

The gold equities’ recent divergence has played itself out even more prominently against the financials, with the HUI Index outperforming financials by a stunning 49% since the beginning of July (see Chart B). As we wrote in "The Real Banking Crisis" two months ago, there appears to be a run on European banks, and financial stocks are reflecting that. IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, recently confirmed as much in her Jackson Hole speech, where she warned about the banks’ need for urgent recapitalization: "They must be strong enough to withstand the risks of sovereigns and weak growth. This is key to cutting the chains of contagion. If it is not addressed, we could easily see the further spread of economic weakness to core countries, or even a debilitating liquidity crisis."3Investors aren’t waiting around to see if they’ll pull it off, and as the chart below suggests, at least some of them have reinvested their former bank equity capital into the precious metals sector.

Chart B

CHART%20B_IMO.jpg

Source:  Bloomberg

As a side note, Chart C symbolizes the great wealth redistribution that has taken place since 2000. Those investors who have owned precious metals equities have prospered, while those who have invested exclusively in the broader equity market or financials have little to show for it. We clearly see this trend continuing, and even accelerating, in the coming years.

In many of the funds we manage at Sprott, we’ve transitioned out of gold bullion and into gold equities to better participate in the continuation of the trend indicated above. As long-time investors in this space, we can assure you that the production growth rates will be significantly higher in the junior stocks. They continue to trade at discounted valuations, and we believe they offer the best opportunity to build exposure. Margin expansion is the key metric for this industry, and the market is now acknowledging the miners’ improvement in margin capture – which has occurred despite the increase in capital and operating costs (see Chart D). We meet with a large number of gold mining management teams on a weekly basis, and based on those meetings, it appears that the average cost of producing an ounce of gold today, all in, is now around $800. At $1,200 gold, these companies can capture roughly $400 in EBITDA. At $1800 gold, however, they’re now capturing $1,000 per ounce in EBITDA - representing an increase of 150% in profit margin. That is significantly far above what any other equity sector has been able to generate over the past year.

Amazingly – despite this new reality for gold producers, we are still finding opportunities in select gold and silver mining companies that can be purchased today at 2-3 times their 2-year-out forecasted cash flow. These multiples are based on the current gold and silver spot price, and if these companies hit their production targets, and gold and silver continue their appreciation – we may discover that these stocks were trading at less than 1 times 2-year-out cash flow today. Having been in the business for many years, we can tell you that investing in a stock at 1 times 2-year-out cash flow tends to be a winning proposition – let alone in an industry that literally mines the world’s reserve currency out of the ground. 

Chart C

CHART%20C_IMO.jpg

Source:  Bloomberg

Chart D

Chart%20D_IMO.jpg

Source:  BMO Capital Markets

In our view, gold stocks represent a bona fide growth sector in an otherwise dreadful equity market. All other equity sectors are weakening due to sovereign uncertainty and the reemergence of soundly weak economic data. The recent disconnect between gold equities and bullion isn’t new either. We’ve seen it before over the past decade, and the returns generated after previous divergences have averaged around 26% (see Table 2). Given the recent performance correlations, the HUI’s breakout above 600 and spot gold now firmly above $1600, we expect this rebound in gold equities to be prolonged and much more significant in percentage terms.

Table-2_IMO.jpg

Equity investors shouldn’t let $1800 gold dissuade them from participating in precious metals equities. The world is still dramatically underexposed to gold, and we firmly believe it should represent a higher percentage of investors’ total portfolios today. The fact remains that both gold and silver continue to trade well below their inflation-adjusted highs in nominal terms, and the market is now beginning to acknowledge the profit potential that precious metals equities offer at today’s bullion prices. We believe the equities will offer more upside than the bullion over time.  Many of the smaller names are well priced and have momentum behind them. The prospects for gold stocks look extremely bright. 

For more information about Sprott Asset Management’s investment insights and award-winning investment capabilities, please visit www.sprott.com.

154 Comments

RaRaRasputin's picture

First!

Maybe?

Edited to add: Yes indeedy!!

RaRaRasputin's picture

@benroberts13

You posted in a thread or so ago - lots of new ones today! - that the market prices were incongruent with crude down and heating oil up.  We need to fill our tank before the winter and we're trying to work out today what the price of heating oil is based on - is it WTI Crude or Brent Crude as they are behaving so differently that which ever one is correct will influence whether to buy now or hold on.  Do you know, or anyone else, which one it is?

TIA

RaRa

Shill's picture

Not digging this close at

Not digging this close at all.

( Must walk away )

RaRaRasputin's picture

The American Debt Crisis

Was lucky enough to be invited to watch the free live video conference today of the Senior Casey Research team entitled 'The American Debt Crisis' (for Casey Gold Report subscribers which I am, I guess) with guest speakers of Lew Rockwell, Mike Maloney & John Mauldin.  Very good and everything lined up with Turds & fellow Turdite thinking.

Investment recommendations were:

Physical gold and silver (in your ownership, not ETF)

Junior explorer stocks

Oil

& Biotech stocks.  Does anyone of the knowledgeable Turdville community know much about Biotech stocks and start ups/companies and could offer an opinion?  Couldn't see a Biotech forum (unless I missed it) & if there is, could you point me in the right direction as I know that the main comment thread is probably not the place to get into this discussion.  If there isn't would it be worth starting one so that those who are 'in the know' could share their thoughts?

TIA

RaRa

bensgone's picture

Repost due to contest confusion

Submitted by benroberts13 on September 14, 2011 - 3:31pm.

No Turd, you have not made any errors in judgment.  You cannot possibly time and prognosticate these markets with absolute perfection.  I know you want to, and when things are not in such dire straits and turmoil, perhaps your score is much better.  Look at the nonsense manipulation going on today.

1. Dollar down

2. Crude down.

3. Dow up 226 points. Nasdaq up.  S&P up.

4. Platinum up

5.  Heating oil up

6.  Gold down and silver down.

All of this is totally counter-intuitive and totally insane.  Does not make a bit of sense.  Who in their right mind buys this total B.S.?

Yes, I know the markets are manipulated in the extreme.  I know they are mashing the Pm's with a vengeance for two whole weeks now.  But who are these idiots that follow like lemmings to their own slaughter?  Cuz, this ain't all EE buying those stocks.  There are a lot of brain dead mind controlled idiots buying up this crap.  When in hell are these fools going to wake up??  I get so tired of this nonsense.  It's as if the whole world has gone totally nuts and everyone is doing the wrong thing.  Today’s market action is proof positive that mental illness is rampant.

You Turd, just keep doing what you have been doing so extremely well.  I don't know anyone better at this than you.  Short term daily market analysis is extremely difficult and you are the best.  No one even comes close or dares to even try.  Don't let anyone discourage you in the least.

At the very least, your daily updates and projections are an encouragement and inspiration to us all.  Only idiots think you should always be flawlessly correct every day.  Keep up the good work my friend, and yes, step out on a limb.  We will be there to catch you when you fall.

Dark Matter's picture

If it were that easy

If it were that easy to identify the good silver and gold juniors.

Just look at Silvercorp!

Dark Matter's picture

Triple witching hour

You are aware that triple witching hour (actually, quadruple witching hour) is approaching? Next Friday...

Strongsidejedi's picture

rasputin and biotech

to rasputin -

What about biotech do you want to know?

Big pharma is hitting biotech. The takeover targets are hard to discern because the politics which is infecting the financial services industry is also impacting the financing of the M&A.

If you focus on fundamentals in biotech, you could still be wrong in the stock play.

This is why I prefer to focus on precious metals.

bensgone's picture

Interesting comments in response to Zero Hedge article:

Credit Is From Mars, Stocks Are From Venus, Or Another Reason Why This Market Looks Increasingly Like 2008

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/credit-mars-stocks-are-venus-or-another-reason-why-market-looks-increasingly-2008

Cdad    This is how the big boys play in the New Normal market.  They run prices up and get the algos chasing.  They let the dumb algos take the last leg, which the big boys sell into.  You can see it now, the block selling.  

The secondary benefit is that, now that the algos have marked stocks to "stupid", the institutions have the green light to bear raid without much fear of the market snapping back on them.

Oh...and also...prices don't mean anything anymore.  The computer Pachinko machine market can price things anywhere...and then change them in seconds.  And you won't know what happened until you see the roll up quotes in the after hours, when it will be revealed that massive selling was going on...but most folks could not see it as it was perpetrated through an alternative exchange.

These last two hours...entirely for the sucker fish.

vote_libertaria...   In Michael Lewis's book about the 2008 crisis he mentions interviewing hedge fund managers and how they could not understand what was going on.  The worst the news got the more aggressive the buying was.  They found out later it was a combination of hedge fund managers doubling down to catch up and quants chasing momo. Looks like the same thing to me again.

firstdivision   We have had a 42+ handle move in the past 3 days based on nothing but headline algos.  This disconnect between FICC and equities is idiotic.  This smells as a coordinated effort by the Banks and HF community to drive up the price and then leave investors holding the flaming bag of dog shit. 

chunga   Meanwhile...DJIA up 200. Makes more sense trying to predict the gyrations of a Lava Lamp.

jbc77   Sometimes Zerohedge can read my mind.  I'm looking at the ramp in the markets today and asking myself how this could be happening when a systemic crisis has infected European banks.  Are we chalking this up to a broken market or what?  Another day in the Twilight Zone.

nobusiness   Searching for sanity in an insane world

Belarus   BTW, I think gold and silver is also showing this is like fall of '08. If Europeans are running from banks, they are also running from brokerage accounts, which means GLD and SLV get liquidated.....to go buy, ahem, Gold and Silver.  It really is two markets in Gold and Silver. 

TruthInSunshine    Who needs QE3 or QE30 when a bankrupt beggar thy neighbor G-Pap can jawbone markets (the only thing that matters, as the world burns down around them, in Bernank's Virtuous Circle Theorem) 3% higher by speaking bullshit?

economessed    Folks, it's not a market.  It's where dumb money goes to die.      Q.E.D.

kliguy38's picture

PLEASE carefully read Sprott

He has given you in a well written piece just a very telling summary of several important changes that have (not so subtly) occurred with the miners over the past several weeks. These are key tells and the PTB are still painting the tape to confuse the traders but the past several weeks told me everything. Miners are going to have a monster move. Don't overtrade (as I do) hold this time and only trade the margins. gl

Strongsidejedi's picture

@darkmatter - which witching is what?

@Darkmatter-

What is in the quadruple witching which would unwind the world's financial wrap?

Do you have clarity on the directionality of the market over the next 7 days?

RaRaRasputin's picture

@Dark matter

The caveat to their video conference call was that you should use a subscription newsletter from someone reputable (& they weren't actively promoting their own - which does include SVM!) who knows the business as there are too many to do due diligence on your own.

RaRa

PS I'm sure it will be released for general viewing soon and when it does become publicly available I will post a link

silverwood's picture

WTF is APMEX doing in NYC?

Anyone care to speculate why APMEX is renting the 50th floor on Wall Street, a retail operation?

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/trump-apmex-and-goldilocks?page=1

RaRaRasputin's picture

@Strongsidejedi

Thanks for the feedback.

If Big Pharma is in on this then I don't want to know (work in the medical profession & am anti-pharma - from a scamming the market place view)

For those interested there is a great book called 'Big Pharma' by Jacky Law that I would really recommend.

RaRa

berkshire888's picture

Gold Mining ETF's

The gold miner ETF's are GDX, GDXJ and NUGT.

Shill's picture

LOL! Check this out

LOL!

Check this out people

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gdx

OMG!

Shill's picture

kliguy38 thanks m8ty we can

kliguy38 thanks m8ty we can always count on you to chime in and keep it real for us.

Thank you.

¤'s picture

Crazy algo's

I see that stuff all the time in SLW but can never catch the moment. Putting a ridiculous sell order price might pay off one of these days. 

Hopefully GDX stays up there and is a telltale indicator.

Strongsidejedi's picture

@Rasputin (Big Pharma)

I am not opposed to large multi-national corporations handling mass production and distribution of pharmaceuticals.

These multi-national companies are necessary in order to get drug production into gear and then to get distribution of these products around the planet.

However, I understand your perspective and note that large scale innovation in medical / drug research is literally being choked by the financial priorities of these companies.
Rather than innovation, we have a stifling perspective where management prioritizes pulling an old drug which was patented 5 years ago off the shelf.

The executives then direct the "research team" to modify the compound and try to get a new indication on that old drug in order to extend the profit margins.  The idiotic thing is that the new drug ends up patented and distributed while newer medications, newer strategies which could provide a real breakthrough to save lives, are abandoned due to lack of funding to complete the research.

Strongsidejedi's picture

@shill on GDX 1630 hour spike

Shill,

What the hell is that spike about in GDX at 1630 hrs?

Shill's picture

Shill,What the hell is that

Shill,

What the hell is that spike about in GDX at 1630 hrs?

Not sure m8, but I did view it in real time and I was like WTF? The afternoon sell off made no sense at all.

WheelerSilver's picture

ugly

Kind of an ugly close today. Let's hope we get a nice bounce overnight.

_____________________
https://www.wheelersilver.com
~Handmade Quality Bullion~

Fulgurite's picture

Gold selloff?

So does this mean that everything bullish Sprott has ever said about physical Gold can now be discarded?

He obviously only cares about the fiat money, otherwise he wouldn't be switching to miner stocks.

Okay, I admit it, but I'm getting a bit nervous with a major sovereign debt crisis (Greece!) staring us in the face, yet PM's fail to perform. It's can't all be attributed to conspiracy theories now can it? Is this Sprott guy selling his Gold into any rallies? Is that the reason the HUI has been performing better recently, and PM's appear to be in the doll drums all over sudden?

Why is it going to be all different now, when compared to 2008?

Bay of Pigs's picture

@Fulgarite

I don't think that's accurate at all. Sprott isn't selling all his physical. He is simply reallocating to something that is undervalued.

His main man John Embry is correct when he says the HUI should see 900 before too long. A monster move is coming, IMO.

TheGoodDoctor's picture

Love the Sprott missives.

Love the Sprott missives. Always nice chunks of solid info to back up the argument for gold and silver. This time its the shares! laugh

Shill's picture

I'll take that massive move

I'll take that massive move in shares all day and buy as much  shiny as I can with it.

Now give it to me :)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/292652-time-for-gold-miners-to-outperform

Mikey's picture

@Shill, Couple weeks after

@Shill,

Couple weeks after 9/11, my brother, 2 friends and I went to a UF-Vandy game in Nashville. In the Charleston airport on the way back there is 75-100 of us in orange and blue, jeans, Gator caps, etc. I'm standing there talking w/ 7-10 people and this small woman comes up and taps me on the shoulder saying please come w/ me. She has on some kind of uniform, don't remember what it referenced but some kind of big bro deal. She leads me into a screened off room and there is this big Lurch type sumbitch standing there and he says, "Empty your pockets, take off your hat, your belt, your shirt and your shoes and socks. If we find anything suspicious we will strip search and hold you for further interrogation." If I had said anything about my rights, etc my butt would have been in jail faster than you can say for at least a night. When I came out that room the next person in line was an old black woman about 5 ft tall and 200 pds. She had her hands up as they patted her down. This whole scenario is about conditioning the American people to get used to gov't force whenever they want to impose it. Have those tsa idiots found anything yet? Not that I'm aware of. See something, say something is just more brownshirt bs cuz they know the only people who will say anything are the friggin nanny state libs who can't take care of themselves. Anyone w/ cajones would try to take out douchebags like Todd Beamer and others on Flight 93 did. I haven't been on a plane since and refuse to even though it causes strife at times. If I can't drive there and take "my little friend" with me then I ain't goin". This is all about seeing how far they can push us before we push back. If you think otherwise, IMHO, you're dead wrong. This is not going to end well. Be prepared.

Fulgurite's picture

@ Bay of Pigs

Well, in order to "re-allocate" you have to sell something first right?

Sprott writes: "The world is still dramatically underexposed to gold..." yet he sells it in return for a higher fiat gain on equities. That just doesn't really make sense to me, unless he's a trader who's in it for just the fiat cash.

If you look at the third reason Sprott gives for switching to equities (higher volatility in Gold, less volatility in Gold equities) then I suspect that Sprott sees a major Gold sell off coming and wants to seek shelter in less vulnerable Gold equities, yet still has PM exposure in case a big sell off doesn't happen.

Here's a great video from Hugh Hendy (a former Goldbug) who is now betting big time on bonds. He hasn't ruled out Gold completely, but his major point is: "JUST NOT YET!" He thinks he can get it for $500,-

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