Painting The Tape

Monday, August 29, 2011 at 10:59 am

"Painting The Tape" is an old stockbroker term. In essence, an individual conspires to make the "tape" look positive or negative for the day by dumping a bunch of orders right at the close, thereby "painting the tape" with the illusion of all-day strength or weakness. It used to be a somewhat common practice. It also used to be illegal.

As this pertains the the PMs, The Cartel regularly conspires not to paint the "tape". No, they have bigger goals in mind. They want to paint the entire chart. They know how much money is run into and out of the metals pits each day by chart-reading, HFT algos. They know that if they can cweate a scawey chawt pattewhn, they can induce WOPR to help them out on the sell side. You can always count on The Cartel to never miss an opportunity. Double-tops, outside reversal days and H&S tops. If the opportunity is there, they're going to take it. I mentioned this likelihood last week and in the previous thread.

From Thursday: "All of this will come to a head tomorrow and over the weekend. Get ready because here comes Ole Turd with another attempt to predict future events!

1) Tomorow is a "risk on" day. The POSX declines and everything else rallies ahead of the Jackson Holedown.

2) Intraday, silver trades as high as 41.80-42.20. Gold reaches 1790. Maybe even 1800.

3) Over the weekend, The Bernank "disappoints" with no QE. Instead, he issues some statements that sound a lot like the last FOMC minutes.

4) Monday is a "risk off" day. The dollar rallies and everything else goes back down.

5) Uh-oh. When the metals roll over from their highs on Friday, the charts conspicuously begin to resemble a head-and-shoulders top.

6) This re-invigorates every douchebag top-caller in the business.

7) Silver declines early next week, perhaps back down to 39.50 or even 39. Gold trades back down to near 1725.

8) This is your buying opportunity. It will take courage to step in and buy at this point but, those who do, will be rewarded."

From Friday: "As postulated late yesterday, the metals rallied overnight and are rapidly approaching the points from which their enemies will be able to proclaim any future decline as evidence of a head-and-shoulders top. This H&S top notion is almost as silly as the "gold in a bubble" nonsense but they're going to spout it anyway and CNBS will lap it up like hungry kittens."

From Saturday: "That said, don't expect wine and roses on Monday. As predicted late last week, the metals have rebounded right to points where The Cartel can attempt to create head-and-shoulders tops. I don't think I can ever remember a time when, given the opportunity to paint the tape, The Cartel did not pounce. Early next week could still get a little dicey while The Forces of Darkness make their moves."

I remind of of this not because I need to once again demonstrate my brilliance (), I state it to keep you grounded and unafraid. As I've pointed out repeatedly, the reason The Turd has become the hands-down most accurate PM sage/predictor on the internet is simple: Once you accept that the ongoing battle for PM supremacy is between The Cartel of bullion banks and an overwhelming tide of regular investors who are just now waking up and demanding real assets and sound money, predicting support and resistance levels becomes quite simple. So easy, even a Turd can do it.

So, once again I ask, where do we go from here? Currently, gold is about $10 off its lows at 1793 and silver is at 40.83. I'm not buying anything just yet. First of all, look at the 1-minute charts from today's open:

Now, compare those two charts to the opening charts from last Wednesday. Of course, last Wednesday saw the second gold margin hike announced after the close.

That's enough right there to keep me on the sidelines all day. You should consider the same.

However, more selling and chart painting will eventually create an opportunity to do some buying so we need to be prepared. First up, here's a gold chart. Since it is the current object of C/C/C derision, I'm not overly excited about adding to my current positions. (If you're wondering, I have call spreads in October and December.) IF the Forces of Evil are able to drive gold all the way back toward last week's lows, I plan to buy back the "sold" side of my spreads and open them up to greater potential return. We'll see.

Here's where I'm planning to blow my dry powder, though: Silver. If we can get another margin hike in gold (which would be criminal and unnecessary but since when has that stopped them?), then maybe silver could fall all the way back under $40 and once again approach the bottom of the channel we found last week. IF it does, I'll be ready.

OK, that's all. I hope everyone has a great day! TF

p.s. As you know, I can no longer bear to watch CNBS. The only time I ever have it on is the first Friday of every month at 8:20 am. I always get a kick out of watching The Shill, The Coug and Liesman backpedal and SPIN. Anyway, if you are watching CNBS today, please let us all know the first time some douchebag comes on and shows the "clear head-and shoulders top that has formed on the gold chart". That should be worth a few giggles.

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Comments

@Shill GOP Jobs plan. Gonna

Submitted by TheGoodDoctor on August 29, 2011 - 7:18pm.

@Shill GOP Jobs plan. Gonna rant a bit.

The jobs situation is so FUBAR that we have already seen the Bush tax cuts from 2001 haven't done jack. Trickle down economics doesn't work. I've compared it to the Colorado River by the time it reaches California - nothing left. There are no guarantees of hiring.

Cutting the payroll tax is just hastening the failure of Social Security. Which they want to do. You going to let me opt out and take my money with me? What will replace Social Security? A government mandated mutual fund that directs a bunch of money to Wall Street (thusly propping it up) and mandatory treasury purchases? Nope don't think I want that.

If something drastic is not done we are going to be screwed as a nation. Unemployed people don't pay taxes, nor do they buy much more than necessities. Who does not understand this? Putting people to work will get the ball rolling.

IMHO the President will be going on attack of Wall Street and the big corps until he attempts to gets re-elected. It's the only way he can turn his poll numbers around since the next Presidential election will be about one thing - the economy. QEII will be held back until the pain is quite severe. Only when hiring begins is when there will be QEIII. This is really the only bullet Obama has left. He will wait until the Repubs cave in on his demands and if not he's got the Super Committee to help with his agenda. It's time for the government to get tough. Reagan raised taxes how many times?

These companies have been making huge profits. Some have gotten bailed out with our damned tax dollars to the tune of 16 trillion. Including foreign banks! It is time they did something to help stimulate growth in America without any more handouts from the government. And if they want to go overseas let them. Americans built many of these companies either buying products or working for them. If they want to sell out the American people then fine let them. If they don't believe in helping Americans why should we believe in them anymore? They have to take some short term pain for their long term gain. Lord knows many Americans have. So, their profits won't be as big in the short term. Boo hoo. Honestly, I am a small government guy, but what can we do right now?

The only other thing I can think of is to completely cut income taxes for a period of time. It is the only way I can think of to stimulate the economy without another QE. And what are the odds of that happening? Maybe under Ron Paul.

The rest is political theater. This Cantor jobs bill, Obama's jobs bill next week will be just as bad as the debt cap BS. And when they have to revisit the debt cap BS it is going to be more of the same. Flat tax, fair tax, VAT tax, it doesn't matter it is still a tax.

And honestly to those people that may complain about some sort of unemployment extension, food stamps or welfare program: give me a break. How much is it compared to the trillions that the corps and Wall Street have been given? I want the system fixed as much as anyone but we are in a depression here. Let's just keep that in mind.

Earthquake Conspiracy Theory

Submitted by Economical Disaster on August 29, 2011 - 7:25pm.

Seismology charts are now revealing that the 5.8 magnitude tremor that rattled the entire East Coast including Washington DC was not a natural earthquake but an earthquake that resulted from an underground nuclear detonation. The image above is a seismograph from Washington and Lee University, (similar one found on www2.tricities.com website) about 85 miles southwest of the earthquake’s epicenter in Mineral. The green lines indicates the tremor that was felt in Washington DC which caused damaged to the Washington Memorial and the Washington National Cathedral. The black lines is a transparent overlay of a seismograph from a pdf file from Virginia Division Mineral Resources on Earthquakes.

http://anationbeguiled.com/?p=2050

$20 St. Gaudens Gold Double Eagle MS-64 PCGS

Submitted by Hard Rain on August 29, 2011 - 7:28pm.

Apmex has these going for $2,175 each. Is this s good buy at this point?

Eric Original, I know you are the resident expert. What are your thoughts? Anyone else?

Thanks,

Rain

CME group declares "force de juere" in No. 2 oil

Submitted by DrkPurpleHaze on August 29, 2011 - 7:30pm.

I just came across this. Looking for more on it.

No wonder oil went up today with no real MSM spin. Word must have leaked out on this CME news also.(wtf!)

Tesla, as you illustrated in

Submitted by daveyboy on August 29, 2011 - 7:31pm.

Tesla, as you illustrated in the cartoon re corruption, isn't that the obvious play to short silver and or gold then considering the bearish sentiment?

Bullish in the coming weeks, but at this moment would seem to be that momentum is the way to go.

@hard rain

Submitted by Nick Elway on August 29, 2011 - 7:31pm.

You can get the nth root of a number by following this link.

http://www.basic-mathematics.com/nth-root-calculator.html

The annualized return for the last 10 years is the 10th root of the ratio of current price to the 10-years-ago price (if the item pays a dividend the Yahoo! historic prices have been adjusted for dividends)

Nick

RE: Open Interest

Submitted by pourty on August 29, 2011 - 7:35pm.

I think I almost understand it after reading this... still not sure, though, LOL!

http://www.stockinvest.in/posts/Understanding_Open_interest_in_Futures_a...

SPY

Submitted by kiwitrader on August 29, 2011 - 7:35pm.

My take on Jackson hole is that Bernanke whilst not confirming QE3, or similar, has temporarily scared off the bears (realists) by using the announcement of an extended FOMC meeting in September. The clear threat is that he may then make a formal announcement therefore don’t be short risk. Even if he does go in September, QE has been proven not to achieve the objective of kick starting the US economy and reducing unemployment, although it has produced liquidity driven equity rallies. The fact is that the US will have to cut spending and raise taxes which will contract its GDP which is negative US (and Global) equity markets. Looking at the technicals, we see an Interesting picture ,last night the S&P 500 was sharply higher, up 32 points but on lowest volume of the year (due to weather impacting on New York commuters and a UK public holiday) the e-mini S&P future is sitting at 1208, just under the key resistance area of 1210. Spikey moves on low volume are often proved to be false indicators, weighing all things up the risk reward profile looks promising for another downside run.

SVM and TomL

Submitted by olderman on August 29, 2011 - 7:41pm.

Tom

Thanks for all your work trying to sort out SVM mystery. Seems a lot of TF folks very positive on this stock. I have bought every day for last six and will continue.

olderman

force majeure

Submitted by Vypuero on August 29, 2011 - 7:41pm.

not "force of the day" - it just lets people have some extra time to deliver bec/hurricane nothing special

RE: SPY

Submitted by tyberious on August 29, 2011 - 7:46pm.

Lets hope so! I thought that 1200 would be resistance. I have SDS 27 Sept calls. On fudies and news I dont know how this market even gets a dead cat bounce outside of PPT!

Thanks Nick

Submitted by Hard Rain on August 29, 2011 - 7:47pm.

I get it.

Rain

@Tesla - I made a minor

Submitted by mrgneiss on August 29, 2011 - 7:47pm.

@Tesla - I made a minor mistake before, it's not DayStar but Storm Dancer who is on here now and a great source of info on PM's and preps. DS was his buddy who took over his thread on Kitco. So a big welcome to Storm Dancer!

CNBC stream? More like CNBS

Submitted by TheGoodDoctor on August 29, 2011 - 7:50pm.

CNBC stream? More like CNBS steam. As in steaming pile of.....

Thanks...

Submitted by DrkPurpleHaze on August 29, 2011 - 7:57pm.

...Vypuero I just saw my typo.

I just saw the story being discussed on Kudlow on CNBC. I was cruising by looking for a baseball game on TV and they were talking about it and they mentioned the reason being Libya for some reason.

I can't find the story anywhere and it just came out.

Friggin' markets are so rigged. And this going to war BS to prevent high oil prices and then the EE driving it way up then down only to ride the rebound up...Ugh!

They just lessened the margins on oil last week and now this force majeure because of Libya? I've noticed the activity level on my USO options come to life a bit last week just before I read that the crude margins were lessened. Coincidence? I doubt it. The secrets always get leaked. If oil spikes, I hope it's soon so I can exit my USO positions.

And I thought gold and silver were being toyed with! Man...oil is one tough thing to invest in. Glad I'm out in time with my options.

St Gaudens

Submitted by Gramp on August 29, 2011 - 8:00pm.

u must know the specs listed about the coin, being PCGS it would be encased so no fondling it.... Still sweet coin though!

Compared to the price of a modern ounce bar, I guess it's a toss up. Certainly a fan of the old coin over the modern no personality bar.

SVM and lots of pics of really silver rocks...omg!

Submitted by DrkPurpleHaze on August 29, 2011 - 8:04pm.

Just came from the website and you would drool over all of the shiny rocks they are standing on in some of the pics...omg!

Pics #4,6,8,14 wow!

http://silvercorpmetals.com/projects/slideshow/

@Economical Disaster

Submitted by TheGoodDoctor on August 29, 2011 - 8:06pm.

@Economical Disaster Earthquake Conspiracy Theory.

What's the point? Who stands to gain? Where was the epicenter? What is there? Did they blow up an underground shelter? Why blow up a nuke underground?

CME Declares 'Force Majeure'

Submitted by Shill on August 29, 2011 - 8:17pm.

CME Declares 'Force Majeure' On Some NY Heating Oil Contracts | FoxBusiness.com

Silver lease rates have

Submitted by mrgneiss on August 29, 2011 - 8:18pm.

Silver lease rates have started to take-off again. Last time this happened was the beginning of April. Nuff said.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/s_leaserates.html

LOOKS LIKE A NEGATIVE JOBS REPORT COMING

Submitted by Jake on August 29, 2011 - 8:29pm.

It looks like my expectations of a lousy jobs report will come true. This will help The Manchild's case to spend more. It also makes it easier for The Ben Bernank to hint at QE3:

FROM ZEROHEDGE:

How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-economy-quietly-entered-recession-frid...

Excerpt: "Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession."

CME

Submitted by DrkPurpleHaze on August 29, 2011 - 8:30pm.

Thanks for the link shill. They made it sound like a really big deal on CNBC and they mentioned Libya.

That Kudlow is something to watch and listen to....for about 10 seconds.

Jake...

Submitted by DrkPurpleHaze on August 29, 2011 - 8:37pm.

...that is some really funny stuff! Thanks!

How about a pic of the Wizard of Oz and super impose a pic of the Bernank on the Wizard, Obama on the Tin Man, Boehner as the Cowardly Lion, Geithner could be the Straw Man, Hillary as Dorothy and Harry Reid as Toto?

SVM

Submitted by tburk on August 29, 2011 - 8:41pm.

Agreed! I am on the same page as you, Jimbio. Almost wish for a 7.50 print which would make me double my position.

ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE!

Submitted by Jake on August 29, 2011 - 8:43pm.

ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE!

Some elliott wave gold charts

Submitted by bikerspade on August 29, 2011 - 8:43pm.

I'm not sure if anyone here has checked out Andy's Technicals elliott wave analysis before. I posted his latest gold charts here. His S&P 500 analysis is solid too.

Gold Derivatives

Submitted by WineGuy on August 29, 2011 - 8:44pm.

Interesting and informative article on gold derivatives .........

http://www.midasletter.com/index.php/gold-at-210000-an-ounce/

I think i smell something burning...

Submitted by FriedEggs on August 29, 2011 - 8:46pm.

*sniff*sniff*

... and its not the good stuff.

I think its fiat money burning...

Fried(e)

@TheGoodDoctor

Submitted by Economical Disaster on August 29, 2011 - 8:48pm.

What's the point? Who stands to gain? Where was the epicenter? What is there? Did they blow up an underground shelter? Why blow up a nuke underground?

..as the conspiracy goes...

1. Practice evacuations for future FEMA camps. Perfect storm for hype.

2. Make sure Edgar Cayce prediction comes true:

"Watch New York, Connecticut and the like. Many portions of the east coast will be disturbed, as well as many portions of the west coast, as well as the central portion of the United States. Los Angeles, San Francisco, most of all these will be among those that will be destroyed before New York, or New York City itself, will in the main disappear. This will be another generation though, here; while the southern portions of Carolina, Georgia, these will disappear. This will be much sooner. The waters of the Great Lakes will empty into the Gulf of Mexico." (2012 prediction)

3. Excuse for QE3 (7 billion needed)

add your theory here...LOL