Painting The Tape

"Painting The Tape" is an old stockbroker term. In essence, an individual conspires to make the "tape" look positive or negative for the day by dumping a bunch of orders right at the close, thereby "painting the tape" with the illusion of all-day strength or weakness. It used to be a somewhat common practice. It also used to be illegal.

As this pertains the the PMs, The Cartel regularly conspires not to paint the "tape". No, they have bigger goals in mind. They want to paint the entire chart. They know how much money is run into and out of the metals pits each day by chart-reading, HFT algos. They know that if they can cweate a scawey chawt pattewhn, they can induce WOPR to help them out on the sell side. You can always count on The Cartel to never miss an opportunity. Double-tops, outside reversal days and H&S tops. If the opportunity is there, they're going to take it. I mentioned this likelihood last week and in the previous thread.

From Thursday: "All of this will come to a head tomorrow and over the weekend. Get ready because here comes Ole Turd with another attempt to predict future events!

1) Tomorow is a "risk on" day. The POSX declines and everything else rallies ahead of the Jackson Holedown.

2) Intraday, silver trades as high as 41.80-42.20. Gold reaches 1790. Maybe even 1800.

3) Over the weekend, The Bernank "disappoints" with no QE. Instead, he issues some statements that sound a lot like the last FOMC minutes.

4) Monday is a "risk off" day. The dollar rallies and everything else goes back down.

5) Uh-oh. When the metals roll over from their highs on Friday, the charts conspicuously begin to resemble a head-and-shoulders top.

6) This re-invigorates every douchebag top-caller in the business.

7) Silver declines early next week, perhaps back down to 39.50 or even 39. Gold trades back down to near 1725.

8) This is your buying opportunity. It will take courage to step in and buy at this point but, those who do, will be rewarded."

From Friday: "As postulated late yesterday, the metals rallied overnight and are rapidly approaching the points from which their enemies will be able to proclaim any future decline as evidence of a head-and-shoulders top. This H&S top notion is almost as silly as the "gold in a bubble" nonsense but they're going to spout it anyway and CNBS will lap it up like hungry kittens."

From Saturday: "That said, don't expect wine and roses on Monday. As predicted late last week, the metals have rebounded right to points where The Cartel can attempt to create head-and-shoulders tops. I don't think I can ever remember a time when, given the opportunity to paint the tape, The Cartel did not pounce. Early next week could still get a little dicey while The Forces of Darkness make their moves."

I remind of of this not because I need to once again demonstrate my brilliance (cheeky), I state it to keep you grounded and unafraid. As I've pointed out repeatedly, the reason The Turd has become the hands-down most accurate PM sage/predictor on the internet is simple: Once you accept that the ongoing battle for PM supremacy is between The Cartel of bullion banks and an overwhelming tide of regular investors who are just now waking up and demanding real assets and sound money, predicting support and resistance levels becomes quite simple. So easy, even a Turd can do it. 

So, once again I ask, where do we go from here? Currently, gold is about $10 off its lows at 1793 and silver is at 40.83. I'm not buying anything just yet. First of all, look at the 1-minute charts from today's open:

paper_8-29amgold1.jpgpaper_8-29amsilv1.jpg

Now, compare those two charts to the opening charts from last Wednesday. Of course, last Wednesday saw the second gold margin hike announced after the close.

paper_8-24amgold1_0.jpgpaper_8-24amsilv1_0.jpg

That's enough right there to keep me on the sidelines all day. You should consider the same.

However, more selling and chart painting will eventually create an opportunity to do some buying so we need to be prepared. First up, here's a gold chart. Since it is the current object of C/C/C derision, I'm not overly excited about adding to my current positions. (If you're wondering, I have call spreads in October and December.) IF the Forces of Evil are able to drive gold all the way back toward last week's lows, I plan to buy back the "sold" side of my spreads and open them up to greater potential return. We'll see.

paper_8-29amgoldh.jpg

Here's where I'm planning to blow my dry powder, though: Silver. If we can get another margin hike in gold (which would be criminal and unnecessary but since when has that stopped them?), then maybe silver could fall all the way back under $40 and once again approach the bottom of the channel we found last week. IF it does, I'll be ready.

paper_8-29amsilv8.jpg

OK, that's all. I hope everyone has a great day! TF

p.s. As you know, I can no longer bear to watch CNBS. The only time I ever have it on is the first Friday of every month at 8:20 am. I always get a kick out of watching The Shill, The Coug and Liesman backpedal and SPIN. Anyway, if you are watching CNBS today, please let us all know the first time some douchebag comes on and shows the "clear head-and shoulders top that has formed on the gold chart". That should be worth a few giggles.

388 Comments

speconomist's picture

Can anyone else notice any

From the previous thread:

Can anyone else notice any other detail to recognize patterns before takedowns?

Thanks for the update as always!

SilverTree's picture

FEELING LIKE CHARLIE BROWN

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Tesla's picture

Thanks and Good Morning Turd!

Silverman's picture

I lost my patience and pulled

I lost my patience and pulled the trigger at 1800. God bless. angel

Ferd Torgerson's picture

Fifth??

Almost made it on my own but not close enough - even for hand grenades.

silvergoldsilver's picture

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Lets just fast forward to November, this is getting boring.

Blight Master's picture

Hmmm, back over 1800, FUBM in

Hmmm, back over 1800, FUBM in full effect, chart painting fail. Lets see if they try again.

wackzingo's picture

Buying more....

Can anyone recommend a good book(s) on options trading for the dummies?

The price drops and pullbacks are always welcome here. I finally got some extra money this week so I picked up a roll of Canadian Maples and hoping to pick up some more shares in EXK.

Dr G's picture

@silvergoldsilver, no need to

@silvergoldsilver, no need to wait until November, my friend. Me thinks we will see some good PM fireworks coming up next week. Traditionally silver makes huge moves beginning with next week.

Also, I wonder how well the tape will be painted following the BLSBS data this Friday? I'm thinking +300,000 jobs, which we all know in reality is completely and blatantly false as usual. More like -90,000 for the 20th month in a row.

ScottJ's picture

Vintage Ron Paul

Very nice post Turd.  "They aren't painting the tape, they are painting the chart." cool

--

How about some vintage Ron Paul for the occasion?

Bohemian's picture

It is not so bad....

-- miners are holding quite well. It is good to be diversified though. My oil & gas juniors and other commodities and resources are pulling my portfolios. Mart resources had great results today, best ever I think, but Canyon services, Exall Energy, Petrobank are doing well, too. (7-11%). There are other interesting plays, like Ithaca, for its long term outlook, the management team capable to execute the plan and deliver, and a pretty good balance sheet. Just IMHO, of course.

It's time for something light.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=Gg7zZcUFKIg

And here:

Frontal Labottleme's picture

@wackzingo

While learning about the technical side of options - delta, gamma, theta, etc. etc. - I can't stress enough my belief that the quickest way to learn to swim is to dive right in with the sharks... but do it SMALL.  Take small stakes.  There's nothing quite like watching a position melt away to pennies on the dollar overnight to focus your attention and to get you asking the right questions. Getting the answers is easy (google).  Finding the questions is the hard part.

Shill's picture

China May Fight Inflation

Vincent's picture

marginnews

Thanks... We shall be ready to marginnews. CME obviously wishes to raise margin before a campaign to $2000GLD... $50SLV

Orange's picture

COMEX Limits

This was news to me. There are limits as to how much silver can be taken out of the Comex. 

http://buysilverbuygold.co.uk/?p=438

redwood's picture

Very Nice Calls Turd

I first noticed your website approx. 6 months ago and was impressed then.  Should have stuck to you closer then, but glad to be here now.

tmosley's picture

SGS: Why November in

SGS:

Why November in particular?  

I'm hoping these low, low prices hold out until then, as I will be getting a large windfall which will allow me to increase my silver hoard by some 40% IF prices are the same as they are now.  Big if, that.

Larry's picture

CFTC Members are the Commodity

No doubt, finding "dime a dozen" people like they evidently have is not a challenge in this world.

Hugh G Reaction on yesterday posted a letter that Andrew Maguire
sent on January 26, 2010 to Eliud Ramirez, CFTC, on the subject: Silver today.

In Mr. Maguire’s letter he articulately pointed out how and when manipulations in price occurred in the rigged market. Toward the end of his letter, Mr. Maguire stated,

“Perhaps look for yourselves into who was behind the trades
at that time and note that within that 10-minute period 2,800 contracts
hit all the bids to overcome them. This is hardly how a normal trader
gets the best price when selling a commodity. Note silver instigated a
rapid move lower in both precious metals.”

Nothing new here, as we’ve seen many such letters and pleas by the GATA camp, Ted Butler and others. Nothing has been done by CFTC (obviously) except for their own silence and therefore, dubious role in the blatant crime being committed. Long before today I got to the point of considering the CFTC no less responsible than I do JP Morgan and others in the Cartel.

But there was something, ONE WORD in this letter that hit me. That word is “commodity”.

Yes, silver and gold have been categorized as commodities for a long time. It is true that silver has an industrial use in addition to a currency and investment role. Whether lumping gold and silver into a basket of beans, rice, sugar and pork then listed and traded as commodity was done innocently or done purposefully to take the ‘shine’ off gold and silver is a subject that can be researched and debated.

But continuing to refer to them as a (mere) commodity, particularly coming from people like Andrew Macguire or anyone at GATA, is doing a disservice to these precious metals. I wish he and they (and you) would consider that in the future.

continued...

¤'s picture

The EU seems to be truly undecided what to do

It appears that way at least. All of that is bullish for gold as we all know. Let the EU squirm while gold squirms higher because of it.

It doesn't take much of a projection to see how the PIIGS could pledge assets  as collateral and then when they fail and bail on the EU they might not want to give those assets up.

I'm not sure what type of assets they are proposing to hold as collateral. Are we talking about businessses, territory or landmarks, gold, shares in state owned companies etc. ?

Seems like this could get ugly on a nationalistic way quickly if anyone of the PIIGs balks at some point about giving up anything in the end of their spiral. I have to wonder why Greece is consolidating loser banks and  other financial institutions into one big debt ball that they know they are going to renege on anyway. Maybe they just plan on walking away from any massively indebted situation (and repayment promises) like some people walked away from there underwater mortgages and stayed in the house and fought the eviction tooth and nail the whole way for years and kept the housesurprise

The proportion of the analogy is skewed but the principle is there. Nobody really walks away or gives up anything without a fight of some sort before it's all taken away from them. I don't see Greece or any PIIGS country going to war over it, but at some point the concept of having to give part of your nation away as a credit payment will become a sore spot.

Nothing against the Greeks, but it seems as if they will gladly take anything that anyone throws their way and the more the better at this point. I think they plan on trying to acquire as much EU debt and credit as possible with the sole intention of bailing out or being forced out.

They basically are getting theirs while they can. Sounds similar to the mindset taking hold over here with 1/2 the U.S. electorate "wanting theirs and screw everybody else" mentality.

Larry's picture

Are gold and silver like peas and rice?

Does the CFTC consider gold and silver to be commodities? Well, gold and silver are under their purview and they have the full authority and force of the government to create mandates, enforce laws, set limits and control trading to ensure “fairness” in the futures markets.

But with that power and responsibility… their COMMISSION, coupled with their blatant silence and lack of enacting any measures to monitor, communicate on much less ACT upon crime being committed in the metals manipulation, it leads me to wonder not if some of their commissioners are corrupt, but this:

Does the CFTC really consider gold and silver as commodities?

Perhaps so, but I seriously doubt it. If they do, then they should be investigated themselves and arrested for being in cahoots with criminals or for being tragically stupid. If they don’t, then they should know that their position in this ongoing manipulation is as the “fall guys” when and if anything ever blows up on the continuing criminal activity of the banking Cartel.

The organization that should be DIRECTLY in charge of and responsible for gold and silver trading is the US Treasury and the SEC. Not that there would be any less crime or neglect involved if they were, but the credit and blame would be closer to the source of control.

Do the elected officials or the Federal government that hires and appoints CFTC members consider gold and silver commodities? Absolutely not.

Does the for-profit, privately-owned Federal Reserve, JPM and the other Cartel Banks consider gold and silver as commodities? No they don’t. Gold and silver, in varying degrees, have industrial uses but their primary use for thousands of years has been as currency, as a store of value and a means of exchange.

Everyone in every government position knows the value and role of gold and silver in the global currency system. But the big problem is, CFTC, the organization tasked with ensuring “fairness” and being a “watch dog” for the American public has obviously been relieved of their power, control, morals and integrity by those that have appointed them.

one more...

taoJones's picture

What about Santelli & Kudlow?...

I kinda like those guys, and some of the guests on Kudlow, like Steve Moore, etc.

:)

And what about the Fox News Saturday morning, like Bulls & Bears, Forbes on Fox, Cashin' In, Cavuto on Business... I like Ben Stein, though he's not a fan of PMs...

I used to watch all of the above programs... but after taking the "red pill"*, now I just read Turd & company.... :)

* the blue pill is for special occasions only...

lostinspace's picture

23rd!

23rd!

Larry's picture

Heads they win, tails you lose.

The CFTC will allow this crime to continue until the whole thing blows up with physical shortages, then they will all be fired or replaced. The Treasury, the politicos and the Fed will have plausible deniability and enough “distance” from the problem to avoid prosecution. Crony Capitalist bankers are so merged with Washington and the Cartels, their only loss will be capital (which will be protected by their friends in government and paid for by tax payers).

The gold and silver charade will continue and the crimes will continue until there is a massive shortage in physical supplies. At that point, it will be interesting to see how the hierarchy of blame is arranged.

For those thinking you will see an end to the global Ponzi scheme, or watch those government and crony criminals being given a perp walk, or applaud the glorious comeuppance for the one big bank that was the most blatant in shorting silver… you are in for a disappointment. It will be

For those thinking that a wild, multi-year upward explosion in gold and silver will crush the Cartel, destroy the EE and destroy all the big banksters and  jackals that run them will also be sadly disappointed.

You will be on that gold and silver train to prosperity, but the lavishly decorated cars ahead of yours will be inhabited by the very wicked ones that robbed the billions of paper holders to buy it and be there.

Hopefully you’ll be there, and hopefully there will be a locked steel door between their cars and our caboose. Then it will be heads or tails... we win. But the battle will still go on.

CreditCrumbs's picture

Macro Observation on China

Since I am not a day trader like many of you, what else do I do on my time other than making macro observations? Here is my morning observation on China. 

China is doing 2 things now:  
 
1. Playing "Hot Potato" game with USD, throwing it to a bigger fool in exchange for long term land lease, oil contract, mine shares, etc. 
 
2. Adjusting RMB upward to slow down accumulation of US treasuries. It's rarely covered anywhere, but 1 USD is now 6.38 RMB. Just last year it was 6.8 RMB. This is a huge move in RMB! A major turning point. It signals two things:

  • China is no longer able or willing to keep RMB peg to the USD with inflation rate too high. 
  • It loses confidence in US economy and USD. It keeps the peg for as long as it feels US consumers will keep their buying binge. This is no longer the case. 
SuperManny's picture

Motley Fool calls top in gold

Had CNBS playing in the background and they had David [what's-his-name] from the Motley Fool on. Talking about folks vacationing in some area in Switzerland so they could pan for gold, and David sez that's a sure sign we've reached a top in gold.

I'm a bit surprised actually... I used to respect the Fool's opinions and I really thought they were smarter than that... of course it may have been just the anal-yst's opinion and not necessarily the Fool's position.

Silverman's picture

I placed SL @1550. 

I placed SL @1550. 

surfeitndearth's picture

Heads, Tails

This link is an excellent expose. If the US govt does nothing about this issue... they're (we're) going into the toilet even faster than the current tragectory suggests... TRNN - "Secret Exemptions Allowed Speculators to Distort Futures Markets" http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=7174

¤'s picture

@Frontal

You are so right imo.

Except I didn't really wade in. I also didn't plunge right in either but as soon as the water seemed a bit comfortable I dove in and March and April last year were great and then MAY happened...WHAMO....ouch!

So I learned the hard lesson by experience and by just watching the options chains vs. everything else every single day that might possibly effect them  and it's been a real eye opener.

Plus having TF's advice and reading here and there what others have already learned and are still learning and posting about all day long on here is incredibly helpful.

A thousand eye's and brains working on and observing the same thing and then almost instantly relaying that info. to a central place where you can absorb others market perceptions in their posts is invaluable.

jonoso's picture

tv financial commentators

they are all a bunch of scam artists   don't believe a word they say!!!!! especially fox  news.................

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