Looking Better

As predicted (hoped), both metals found some buying today after a successful test of overnight lows. Silver consistently found buyers near 39 which is right near that upsloping trendline on the 6-hour chart. Gold triple-bottomed at 1705 and has since rallied almost $60. I'd expect these rallies to continue into tomorrow. But, what happens next?

All of this will come to a head tomorrow and over the weekend. Get ready because here comes Ole Turd with another attempt to predict future events!

1) Tomorow is a "risk on" day. The POSX declines and everything else rallies ahead of the Jackson Holedown.

2) Intraday, silver trades as high as 41.80-42.20. Gold reaches 1790. Maybe even 1800.

3) Over the weekend, The Bernank "disappoints" with no QE. Instead, he issues some statements that sound a lot like the last FOMC minutes.

4) Monday is a "risk off" day. The dollar rallies and everything else goes back down.

5) Uh-oh. When the metals roll over from their highs on Friday, the charts conspicuously begin to resemble a head-and-shoulders top.

6) This re-invigorates every douchebag top-caller in the business.

7) Silver declines early next week, perhaps back down to 39.50 or even 39. Gold trades back down to near 1725.

8) This is your buying opportunity. It will take courage to step in and buy at this point but, those who do, will be rewarded.

Of course I could be wrong. Maybe The Bernank will announce a new, massive $2T money-printing scheme to match the new debt ceiling. If he does, you can forget all about the H&S top stuff as it will be off to the races, instead.

Remember, if you're going to survive trading the PMs, you always have to sell some when everyone is buying and you always have to buy some when everyone is selling. You had an opportunity to buy earlier today. You will likely have another opportunity next week. Of course, "sometimes the only winning move is not to play." That's OK, too. Just keep stacking the physical and enjoy the fireworks.   TF

paper_8-25pmgold15.jpgpaper_8-25pmgold4.jpg

paper_8-25pmsilv15.jpgpaper_8-25pmsilv4.jpg

392 Comments

speconomist's picture

I've been mentioning lately

Thanks for the update Turd, don't know if you read about the upcoming margin hikes.

I've been mentioning lately that there would be convergence again between silver and JPM stock. Ignored by many, but with JPM stock below $36, you know where you can expect the BTFD or the stabilization.

I've been highlighting the importance of Monday, LBMA closed, which means less liquidity in the markets and more volatility. Additionally Bernanke speech on Friday, where he won't announce QE3, rather Operation Twist2, another reason for the EE to smash the price even more.

Also, the latest interview of KWN with Peter Schiff here and latest Keiser's report:

andybenn's picture

AT IT AGAIN

From ZH
 

To HKMEX,NYMEX,NYSELIFFE traders:

Thu Aug 25 13:54:57 2011 EST

As a result of the continued volatile trading environment, please be advised that exchange margins and/or house margins are likely to increase overnight and over the next couple of days, particularly in the metals. For exchange specific increases, please visit the respective websites. IB will also be increasing the gold derivatives margin. Please monitor any affected holdings closely and manage your risk accordingly.

beardeus's picture

THURD!

THURD!

FFF's picture

154 silver....from the end of previous thread

I find myself unable to stay out of this...

Thousands of Turdites must be careful what they post so as to not offend you??

That smacks of the TV censorship that used to exist because people could NOT be bothered to change a channel if they did not like the content of a particular TV show!!  I have seen more "porn" on Two and Half Men than on this blog!!

Americans find themselves in a position of NOT BEING able to stand up for themselves and it is one of the MANY things bringing this great country to its knees...IMO!!

No one should be caught up in profiling because we might offend someone or some group.  Yeah right, it is better to let them fly jet airplanes into the Twin Towers and kill 3320+ innocent people than offend someone.

Change the channel or move on to the next post if you don't agree with the content.

Peace, Out

zilverreiger's picture

NEW GOLD MARGIN HIKE WARNING

by IB

Silverlocity's picture

Another Margin Hike Coming...

Per ZH, Interactive Brokers is again expecting a Margin Hike from the crooks.   Tie the next hike in with Uncle Benny's speech on Friday and we should have one more chance to buy on the dip!

Captain Silver's picture

They must read the Turd!

Out comes this post, and again with the margin hikes.   Proof the EE reads the Turd and he gives them nightmares.

Captain Silver's picture

They must read the Turd!

Duplicate

Dr G's picture

reposted from last thread

re: the margin hikes. Amazing. Un f-ing believable.

Can they just raise the requirements to 100% cash/no leverage so we can all get on with our lives already. And to that point, we know why they don't do that. If they did, then they are done. All their bullets would be spent.

And isn't their use of the term "volatility" always a joke? You mean that which was caused by the margin hikes, which necessitated additional margin hikes? Yeah, that stuff.

FFF's picture

TRX and NSU to the woodshed

Something is up!!  I use NSU as my "forwarding looking" gold price guidance.  This latest move to LOD has me wondering if gold is about to get wacked again...margin hike announcement may have done it!!

TRX...not sure what to think about that...

SilverBoy's picture

This correction shows us something very important.

We are in the first stage of the bull market. We passed the test gold is in very strong hands.

Shill's picture

Margin hikes mean nothing to

Margin hikes mean nothing to me, I have already seen the effect. Bring it, and I'll buy into it with pleasure. Don't threaten me with cheaper goods...

Dr G's picture

Let me add one final note to

Let me add one final note to this margin increase crap:

​please be advised that exchange margins and/or house margins are likely to increase overnight and over the next couple of days, particularly in the metals.

​Do they EVER raise margins in any other sector other than the metals? It's almost hilarious. Why don't they just say "gold & silver"?

@Shill, I love your response. The Cartel is so stupid to think that the lower prices somehow intimidate us. No, I buy every day, so it means I get 1.5 oz when I was expecting only 1. Idiots.

Ned Braden's picture

Santa has already said

That the "end-game" will include "all-cash" market for metals derivatives......

Dr G's picture

+1 to Ned. Thanks for

+1 to Ned. Thanks for reminding me of that. I read it last night but had forgotten it already. Bring on the all cash market, I say.

Maryann's picture

Great thing about this place

Is that so many of us feel welcome here.  Turd has done such a wonderful job of making crucial info available to those of us of modest means who wouldn't have a clue what was going on unless we happened to get lucky one day surfing the internet.  (ok, that's me!)  There are others as well such as Sinclair, ZH, etc.

I think all the others meant to say about language, etc is please just remember that your moms, sisters, etc are reading too.  Yes, we can use the ignore feature, but I don't want to because that might mean I would also miss some wise nugget of info!!  Yes, you know who you are...smiley  No censorship, just manners please. Ok, mom is finished! smiley

154_silver's picture

@ FFF

yeah dude, I read ya the first time, and there's a reply in that thread.

stand up, adjust whatever you need to, and chill.

Surveyor3's picture

I'm getting carpal tunnel over here...

I'm pretty new to the game (about a year or so,) and I knew what I was getting into. I'm developing a bad habit of refreshing markets in IE every few minutes though. ARGH!

Can anyone recommend some good, relatively simple reading materials for us newbs?

BTW, enjoyed your stuff for a while now Turd, keep it up!

tmosley's picture

Hehehe, looks like I was

Hehehe, looks like I was right, they are going to give gold the "silver treatment", and at the same time that I figured they would.

I will be telling everyone I know to start looking to buy heavily at the end of next week.  This time around, I would expect the lows to be reached much faster as this is all building to a frenzy.

This looks an awful lot like the final dip.  Sucks to be me, cause I won't get to buy it.

Hopefully I will be wrong and it will hold until my windfall hits in November.

Tesla's picture

Margin Hikes Negate Any Technical H/S Pattern -

Maybe the dipsticks that listen to and actually believe CNBS will buy it. But those guys have fleeced their audience for years. How much of a threat to PM prices are a bunch of broke people - out of money b'cuz they already lost it all listening to the shills and bought and paid for elitist media commentators?

Shill's picture

@Shill, I love your response.

@Shill, I love your response. The Cartel is so stupid to think that the lower prices somehow intimidate us. No, I buy every day, so it means I get 1.5 oz when I was expecting only 1. Idiots.

Lol no doubt brother  I am laughing all the way to the bank with this lol Respectful  ( non porn ) Fuk! the CRIMEX and everyone in it. Your going to knock $2 or better off of a Silver or Gold coin that I planned on buying anyway. LOL! hell make it $10 and I'll love you even more. Happy days friends, and look I don't even have to worry about my miners positions because those are long term as well ha ha ha.

Nigel Black's picture

What, a PM sale coming?

Cool.  Bring it on.  Papa needs more shiny...

Nighttrain's picture

Margin hikes news doesnt seem

Margin hikes news doesnt seem to have affected silver.  I keep thinking about closing out and waiting for a lower entry point but is everyone really convinced we are going down again today/tomorrow?

Shill's picture

Take note

less than 2 hours till M2 update. ( Rolls hands ) What I suspect here is a lot of JH posturing, must be good little Oil boys for the Nostril crowd.

cris's picture

Hey Turd -- any thoughts on Wynter Benton's latest??

http://search.messages.yahoo.com/search?.mbintl=finance&q=wynter_benton&action=Search&r=Huiz75WdCYfD_KCA2Dc-&within=author&within=tm

Silver will soon be a reserve asset for a sovereign central bank  

    25-Aug-11 10:25 am    
The Leader wishes to inform his readers that a sovereign central bank will soon announce that it is accumulating silver as a reserve asset.

Also he is advising those who have participated so successfully in the latest gold run to shift their entire focus to the silver market.

As to Jes Staley, The Leader will give his reply at the appropriate moment.

You're going home in a body bag, do da, do da.....

Tesla's picture

Silver OI (-2,499 total contracts) Hmm?

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/25/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

-

-

-

-

+1.583

40.740

-

11

SEP 11

39.680

41.030

38.760

39.650

+1.583

40.745

75,617

28,197

OCT 11

40.320

40.935

38.990

-

+1.586

40.764

293

223

DEC 11

39.780

41.075

38.810

-

+1.592

40.793

32,855

59,516

JAN 12

39.505

40.920

39.090

-

+1.591

40.801

22

144

MAR 12

40.400

40.935

39.000

-

+1.591

40.804

1,263

7,345

MAY 12

39.555

39.835

39.050

-

+1.589

40.794

25

2,325

JLY 12

39.100

40.600

39.050A

-

+1.591

40.783

17

1,997

SEP 12

39.580

40.960

39.540

-

+1.593

40.761

202

339

DEC 12

39.630

40.850

38.845

-

+1.595

40.706

94

8,523

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

+1.596

40.678

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

+1.598

40.614

-

440

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

+1.601

40.571

-

35

JLY 13

39.990

39.990

39.990

-

+1.604

40.501

2

2,207

DEC 13

-

-

-

-

+1.604

40.386

130

6,587

JLY 14

-

-

-

-

+1.604

40.153

-

232

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+1.604

40.026

-

1,201

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

+1.604

39.791

-

156

DEC 15

37.900

39.240

37.900

-

+1.604

39.636

4

522

JLY 16

-

-

-

-

+1.604

39.516

-

53

Total

110,524

120,054

Last Updated 08/25/2011 01:32 PM

Eric Original's picture

margin hikes

They can try all the "silver treatment" they want.  It won't work nearly as well.

Tesla's picture

Gold OI (-8,560 total contracts) Whoa!

Daily Settlements for Gold Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/25/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

1748.4

1766.2

1707.3

-

+5.7

1759.8

830

708

SEP 11

1752.7

1790.0

1702.8

-

+5.7

1759.9

4,112

1,847

OCT 11

1750.6

1768.0

1701.7

1710.0

+5.6

1760.6

22,138

30,614

DEC 11

1753.0

1771.1

1705.4

1769.8

+5.9

1763.2

345,929

356,424

FEB 12

1750.0

1771.0

1708.4

-

+5.8

1764.7

1,554

30,460

APR 12

1755.9

1772.9

1711.8

-

+5.6

1766.3

357

7,508

JUN 12

1752.0

1772.5

1717.4

-

+5.5

1768.1

480

16,590

AUG 12

-

-

-

-

+5.5

1769.9

51

6,271

OCT 12

1748.2

1748.2

1748.2

-

+5.3

1771.7

3

4,189

DEC 12

1763.9

1778.2

1718.3

-

+5.1

1773.7

420

13,722

FEB 13

-

-

-

-

+5.0

1775.7

5

3,105

APR 13

-

-

-

-

+4.9

1777.8

-

335

JUN 13

-

-

-

-

+4.8

1780.1

124

11,888

DEC 13

-

-

-

-

+5.0

1791.0

105

12,764

JUN 14

-

-

-

-

+5.3

1804.8

87

3,880

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+5.3

1820.6

52

9,980

JUN 15

-

-

-

-

+5.6

1841.1

-

4,880

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

+5.6

1863.9

-

3,564

JUN 16

-

-

-

-

+5.6

1888.5

-

26

DEC 16

-

-

-

-

+5.6

1916.9

-

1,165

JUN 17

-

-

-

-

+5.6

1948.2

-

40

Total

376,247

519,960

Last Updated 08/25/2011 01:32 PM

ScottJ's picture

Margin Hikes into Bernanke at

Margin Hikes into Bernanke at Jackson Hole tomorrow seems like they are creating the volatility to shake out hands that are "seemingly brave", but are not able to stomach volatility such as the invisible hand can dish out in times of dire stress.  If indeed another large scale margin hike comes out by the CME after comex close, I would fully suspect that there is some big news coming out of Jackson Hole tomorrow.

Bernanke is there with Geithner and all of the other banker friends.  He is in approving company in a stage such as Jackson Hole with his bankster buddies, and has previously shown us twice at this very location two very dangerous monetary policies.

This will be the strikeout punch to the dollar....

3 Jackson Hole Events... 3 is a very symbolic number....

Expect no different for tomorrow, for if there is to be a monetary policy introduction/hint, expect a massive volatility swing tomorrow to wreck all stops both ways, before the resulting move up. Too much bad shit is going on in the financial world for nothing to happen.  This is his shot, while people actually are listening to him like he can fix a damn thing.

The public is still in the stage of doubt, not anger yet....

Dr G's picture

@Tesla, what do we make of

@Tesla, what do we make of those silver OI numbers? Are those shorts now closing their positions?

And there is 41. For those keeping track, today in silver we have seen $38.xx, $39.xx, $40.xx and now $41.xx. What a hoot.

Syndicate contentComments for "Looking Better"