Shenanigans

In what can only be considered option expiry shenanigans, a pleasant overnight was abruptly ended by the monkeys and the algos this morning as trading opened on the Comex.

Check out these amazing charts below. They are like chalklines left on the ground at a crime scene.  The gold Comex opened on schedule at 8:20. Note the the first five minutes were actually positive. Then, as soon as the silver Comex opened at 8:25, the wrath of God (or Blythe) was brought down upon the gold pit. Gold was smashed for $20 in 20 minutes. Silver hung in there for 6 minutes before succumbing to peer pressure. It proceeded to drop a full dollar in 15 minutes. Selling in both pits climaxed at 8:48.

Again, this is no coincidence. Someone or something wanted out of gold this morning and was convinced to hold off on hitting bids until the silver Comex opened. With option expiry tomorrow, The EE will use every trick available to suppress price. Harvey mentioned last night that he thought the target of EE affection was the $42 level in silver. He may be right. I mean, look at this chart and look where the price was when the beatdown began.

paper_8-24amgold1.jpgpaper_8-24amsilv1.jpg

So, if there is a direct, coordinated, manipulated takedown going on (and I think there is), what would be the goal?

After all the fear and hysteria yesterday, there were no margin hikes last night. In the end, I guess that's not surprising. Remember, the C/C/C uses volatility as their excuse to raise margins. Plant a few rumors around that margin hikes are imminent and you get an $80 selloff. How about that? There's the volatility the C/C/C needs in order to execute their diabolical scheme. I wrote on Monday night that I expected the criminals to time their next hike in order to get the biggest "bang for their buck". Optimal timing would still be Thursday or Friday, ahead of the assuredly "disappointing" Jackson Hole Hoedown. Another possibility would be to wait for Monday and use the weakness and volatility that a Hoedown letdown would create. Either way, I still think that gold margins are going up and that prices are going down, at least in the very short term.

So, Turd, what do you expect then? Let's see if, by later today, gold can trade down to initial strong support near 1820. It would take silver down with it, let's say to somewhere near 40.50. At that point, Blythe takes her stilleto off of our collective jugular and let's prices rise from the canvas. The metals rally the remainder of the week but in a muted sense. Gold recovers to 1840 or so. Silver bounces back 41.50-42. If the paragraph above then plays out, I could see gold falling next week all the way back to 1725-1740. This would be a near perfect 10% correction from the highs of Monday night and it would set the stage for the next leg up.

paper_8-24amgold3.jpg

Silver would be taken along for the ride, of course. If you look at the chart below, you can clearly see that a drop to 38.50-39 is entirely possible. Again, this would not indicate the end of the world. It would, however, give us all an excellent point at which to begin building or rebuilding positions.

paper_8-24amsilv6.jpg

Let me wrap up with this disclaimer. The above fairy tale is an attempt to predict the future. It should not be taken as seriously as "Turd's Bottom", "1600 by 6/10/10" or "44 by Labor Day". Instead, it is The Turd trying to make some sense of the current situation. It should either be treated as a short-term planning tool or simply as the entertaining ramblings of a delusional megalomaniac.

Have a fun day! TF

225 Comments

Sandiaman's picture

1st

1st

FriedEggs's picture

'They'

are scrambling hard now because truth is knocking at the door of justice... with a sledge hammer.

Knock-knock - who's there?

Shamrocks and Shenanigans - House of Pain!

Fried(e)

speconomist's picture

Bubble... in bonds and stock

Bubble... in bonds and stock market. Certainly not in precious metals.

Anybody laughing today with the cheerleaders of CNBShit asking if gold's bubble has bursted?

Also, was there an earthquake today? Gold plumetting again, not that I am complaining at all.

robov's picture

Broad Markets

You know the fix is in when the PM's get pummeled and the broad markets are rising on no real good news.

Tesla's picture

Good Morning Turd!

Paradox... Your #1 And #2 

Urban Roman's picture

Beware of Pigatha

Did I spell that right?

The other consequence of the MOTU meeting this weekend in East Buzzard Breath or wherever, may be that the dollar bounces next week. Dollar could bounce and stawks could head for the third sub-basement.

It looks, from these and from Jesse's charts, that the monkeys could pound Silver down to the lower trend line at 38 or so. I believe that is what they intend to do.

But it seems sorta doubtful that it will ever go back into the 20's, so those couple of rounds I bought in 2006 are still a sound investment, right?

TechTrade's picture

Downside to Go Before I Sleep

Definitely some downside to go here, wouldn't try to catch falling knives anytime soon.  Will take at least a week to 10 days for this downleg to find a bottom, work the oscillators down towards oversold and then move up again.  240 minute sell signals came right about 43.2 in silver, and the daily stochastics crossed over there.  The line in the sand will be right around 40.25 to 40.5.  It will almost certainly bounce there.  If it drops through there, then I think we're looking at the 50D EMA at 39.35 area, or even the 100D EMA at 37.4.  37.4 is an exact 15% correction from the 44 top.  So if gold drops 10% to 1725, and silver 15% to 37.4, those are the buy areas.  If we drop through there, then we may have some real problems technically, although I don't see the systemic problems resolving themselves in the long run.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes, sell all your gold

MODERATOR

Morons and WOPR selling only.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/24/cbo-federal-deficit-will-hit-1-3-trillion/

Be patient. This, too, shall pass.

boil_in_the_bag_rice's picture

Ninth!

Ninth!

llaettner's picture

Arcs of support

If you notice, the decent of silver has been corrected at each arc on the way down, my hope is that 78.6 is the bottom.

Haole's picture

Thanks Turd!

Comforting for those who can't quite take all the emotion out of current events, like myself... ;)

Getting ready to buy whatever dip we get, low 1700's would be a gift.

Love the daily news according to Turd, pure sanity.

margaritatime's picture

A couple of thoughts;

One of the things I see happening in movements is anticipation of Bernanke on Friday.. The herds placing these positions are going to be sorry, I would bet money on it… oh wait, I have.

Second, the fear of margin hikes. Margin hikes.. You know what I have to say about that? Good, do it. In fact go all the way to 100%, because within a few months your ammo clip will be empty and both metals will still prevail. The faster they do a margin hike – the faster this sham comes down… Ah, yes, but they know that too.

Gold is going to the 17 zone today, which is a bit lower than I wanted to see. Have no worries peeps, this ball is just getting rolling. If you think August was fun, wait until you see September. Remember the areas that have already been tested, after this consolidation things are going to rumble.

An interesting side note. Every time we get a dip like this the forums explode in people’s frustrations, and tempers, conspiracy theories, and rhetoric spew on to the boards. Let me say this, I love the variety on the boards, and I really like the people on these boards. Don’t make me use the ignore button [shakes fist]. Just sayin’, keep it together people. We are all the same side, and hopefully that is to help each other out.

Edit: Oh by the way good morning Turd, and thanks! Very well done - particularly #1 & 2 charts.

FFF's picture

DAMN they are taking down the miners

right along with the metals...

Will the miners EVER de-couple from this madness in the metals??

One would think it was time for the monkeys to short the metal and go long the miners, but, NOOOOOOOOOO....

GEEZ LOUISE!!

Strongsidejedi's picture

DXY compared to gold and silver

Thanks to the TF for some projected trading ranges.

I find this manipulation to be very interesting.

Anyways, looking for the mega trend in the DXY vs. Gold and the DXY vs. Silver.

Is it just me, or do other people see the DXY making a pennant through out the last few months.

When I look at the DXY chart on the multi-year, there is a clear narrowing of the trading range and this seems to come to a point in the next 1-2 weeks.  It's like the pennant is dragging on the ground.  The gold price on the other hand seems to be rapidly escalating as the DXY pennant drags.

It's like the DXY is being propped up by valuation in gold and that if gold did not move up, then the DXY would have sank further.  Is this the sign of bankers gold reserve being required to be valued higher in order to balance the ledgers at the banks?

I decided this morning to look at the DXY vs. silver also.  Here's that chart with silver as the candlestick and the DXY as a line graph.  This looks very bullish to me on silver.  Any temporary pull back, especially to <40 will be a great buy.  I suppose the real issue is whether or not they can hammer back to 37.50 range or if we stick around 40.  Regardless... if I see 40 on my screen tomorrow morning or even later today, I'm considering adding to my long position.

opalboy's picture

there is a big picture out

there is a big picture out there...............................

and it says hold gold and silver a thousand times!

and the peace of mind when you do is .............................................

                                                                                                                   PRICELESS!

Shill's picture

It's a fuking crime what they

It's a fuking crime what they are doing to Miners a fuking crime.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gdx

  1. 10:03a

    Housing prices rise 0.9% in June, FHFA says

Ha ha ha ha ha ha

ewc58's picture

Noob/Depressive Alert! Today is only what was expected

Your Dip is in the process of being cooked. A good one takes time, you can't rush a dish worth the wait. So don't be impatient with your waiter.

Best revenge is maybe place a few stink bids, but mostly to get away from your monitor today. Go out and enjoy the air, feel the sun on your face.  The EE is making their move this week, next week we'll make ours.  Nothing has changed except the paper price of PM. Temporarily. Nothing goes north uninterrupted. Not even gold under during the Obottom Error.

Don't let the Bull throw you. He's very good at messing with your head. Ignore the Bull's bullshit in addition to AGA bullshit. There is a ton of shit flying, just keep your wits. Stay on the GPS coordinates Turd downloaded into your hand held and get fresh ammo up to the front lines so your Freedom Fighters are ready to BTFD at the low.

Strongsidejedi's picture

Wayne County, Michigan (Detroit) selling over 14,000 properties

Wayne County, Michigan is conducting what may be one of the largest municipal government tax auctions.

They have over 14,000 properties that are upside down on taxes up for review.

You can review the debacle at http://www.bid4assets.com/storefront/index.cfm?sfID=602&partnerid=246

I was going to try to post more info, but the info on 14,000 properties is ridiculous to digest.

This is a precious metals board, so I would like to note that I am not a buyer for these tax auction sales.  On the other hand, does anybody care to bring up Meredith Whitney's comments about Muni-debt?

I think it's patently obvious that Wayne County, Michigan must be in serious trouble.  When you multiply 14,000 properties by their tax bill, it has alot of zeroes.

Government can not get out of this cycle unless they empower the ownership of private properties.  Wayne County would have a decent tax sale, if they changed their state and local laws to do something which makes it more profitable to run in their area.  Unfortunately, it is not more profitable.  It's less profitable and therefore people and companies leave.  This is Wayne County's second or third time trying to auction some of this crap real estate in this year alone.

Makes you wonder who owns the Mortgage Backed Securities for these 14,000 properties.  Wayne County's tax auction overrides the MBS title holder.

It must really suck to buy a Moody's AAA rated MBS and then learn that Berkshire was lying.

tpbeta's picture

Many thanks

Turd I'm obliged to you for persuading me to sell my paper gold yesterday, although I kept my physical silver. My family thank you. I'm thinking Monday or Tuesday next week to pile into silver, but I'll be watching you closely.

Violent Rhetoric's picture

Hope so

Would like to see Gold cut thru 1st fibonaccci level of 1,747.54 all the way to 30 day MA of 1693. 

Silver hoping for 90 day MA of 38.34 this week.

good entry points for a little dry powder. Here's hoping

Remember Santa said we would see large price swings.

Tom L's picture

@EWC

It looks like 560 area should be good support on the HUI, looking at the 60 minute chart if you're looking for potential bottoms to call.  Not that I'm doing so in this market.  Let's see if this area can hold for a while before making any moves in.

This attack has been just as Santa described it... quick, brutal, and massive.  Gold has entered the zone where Yamada said would be good support this morning on KWN, so, here we go. 

If there's going to be a correction let it be a quick one.  Those that have no margin cannot be shaken out of their positions.

Ta,

OC15's picture

When

You position is getting cooked say $20 EGO Sept call you bought at say $.90 and now they are $.25, do you average down, bail, hold?

Air Garcia's picture

Mainstream Fools: Same Story - Different Day

Remember back when gold was breaking through 1700 or so - maybe it was 1650ish ... they were squaking that gold was in a bubble - BS ... then it blew threw 1800 onto 1900 ... On to the MOON, alice!  

(although I am making some nice fiat this little sell off with a nicely played put!) 

Rock on turdites!

NW VIEW's picture

EXK

It is difficult to stop my buying finger from pushing the button on EXK today and I think I see grandma with money in her hand at the coin shop.

¤'s picture

The next leg up

I can only imagine what the scope and angle of that ascent might be next , given the move up the past 7 weeks and the current correction going on now.

Going up $400 and swinging back $150 sounds good to me because we know it's going to swing up through $1800-$1900 and $2000 soon enough.

Given all of this Germany/PIIGS/ Gold collateral talk on that side of the world that is just starting and all of the major currency devaluations going on, just remember..... regardless of what gold is doing yesterday, today or next week etc. it's going up because of the overall situation, period.

Hang in there newbs and/or take your profits from the past several weeks even if you think you can wait for this profit shaving to correct to recapture what you just had.

Been there, done that, regretted it and learned from it.

SilverWealth's picture

great selloff

Everything on Sale now. Terrific gift of a selloff. of course its all criminal, that's what gives us the opportunity. Patience is all. A month out from here and anyone buying in increments as this thing is racketeered down will be happy.

this is all. Trying to name 'support' is silly imo. The Cartel just continually blasts thru those imagined levels much,much quicker than people think. That is how the Cartel operates. They own the publishing houses that print all the books that are sold to the techies afterall. There is no support and there is little resistance. There are only waterfalls,volatility and money management within the maelstrom, all the rest is high drama and human emotion imo.

ewc58's picture

Tom, thanks for putting

a number to it... We both have vision and brass balls, you also have T/A.

Advantage Tom :-)

For all of us, a little patience, perspective, and fire discipline will go a long way this week.

Tom L's picture

The EE's plan

It looks like they are trying to stuff Gold back into the big linear uptrend channel and nip this parabolic move in the ass before it gets going.  Go back to Trader Dan's Charts... mine is below.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29681681@N06/6076752386/

Nothing fancy, just a good ol' red-ass beatdown to re-establish the controlled order of things.

Support forming in the $1770 range now, very tenuous.

Ta,

Tesla's picture

"Dennis Gartman's been a big Gold Bull"

According to Melissa Lee and Simon whats his name on CNBSroflmfao.jpg

llaettner's picture

Ag 61.8% Fibo Arc from $38.4 tested, and passed for now

40.21 is the 61.8% from 38.40, if theory is that this is a rock bottom retracement point, hold on to your hats. . . chicken selling took it all the way to 39.87. . . .

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