On Shaky Ground

I feel like I must apologize for doing this to you. No sooner did I hit the "enter" button last evening on the previous update did the PMs begin to swoon. In hindsight, it's clear that last evening was when word began to trickle out.

Let's see...the dollar is down. Crude is up. Copper is up. The grains are up. The PMs are way down and have been beaten down in stages since last evening. Why? Let's just say the The Turd will be stunned...no, flabbergasted...if margin hikes in gold aren't announced before 7:00 pm EDT today. The way that today's selling has come in waves is entirely consistent with trading patterns from previous days where hikes have been announced. The criminal C/C/C lets a little word out to their friends in advance and down she goes! Not only are longs getting liquidated, they're getting turned into shorts for maximum gain. That's 2X selling pressure and more than enough to flatten anything in its path.

Considering a gold margin hike is a given at this point, the questions to ask yourself are:

1) How big of a correction is coming?

2) Could this end up being a "sell the rumor, buy the news" type of event?

I have a last in the Dec gold of $1830. The high last evening was 1917.90. (NOT coincidentally, the early evening Globex high on 8/11, right before the previous margin hike, was 1817.60. Almost exactly $100 lower.) This means we are already down about 4.6% from the highs! The correction after the last hike was almost exactly 5.001%. A 5% correction here would take gold back to 1820. Hmmm. That number sounds familiar. 1818 is the former high and should now act as support. A 10% correction would be about 1726. Wow, that's an interesting number, too. The low after that last margin hike was 1725.80. Whaddayaknow...

paper_8-23pmgold.jpg

The 1818 level really is pretty important technically so we need to see gold hold it there. I suspect that a greedy EE will jam it through 1818, though, and if 1800 fails, you're going to see gold trade all the way down into 10% correction territory. At that point, it would make for another compelling opportunity to get long again.

Silver's a different story, It's getting dragged back with gold today as the fast-buck HFT algos are quickly selling away the same silver they just bought back on Friday and Monday. I can't imagine it's getting its margins raised too, but, who knows? Maybe The Forces of Darkness will try to hit the daily double. We'll see. If the margin hikes are in gold only, then you'll likely see some recovery action in silver tomorrow. At any rate, I'd like to see silver hold above 41.70 for the rest of the day. I'd said just yesterday that the EE might get greedy and try to take silver all the way down to 41.50 and, if they did, 41.50 would be a "tremendous opportunity to buy". I still feel that way. Let's see how this plays out over the next few hours and into tomorrow.

paper_8-23pmsilv.jpg

OK, that's it. I've had enough of this for today. I think I'll head to the gym and burn off some stress.  TF

131 Comments

speconomist's picture

not trying to catch the knife falling

Thanks for the update Turd, time to be patient then. I won't try to catch the knife falling, but will watch those levels you provided..

from the previous thread:

@taoJones:

Sorry I missed it, going to post there in a minute.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/1810/trading-agusd-or-auusd#comment-37387

Also: Keiser Report from today:

swefred's picture

I hope my sell order for my

I hope my sell order for my BULL goes trought when the market open tomorrow CET

bigmark99's picture

it will be ok keep stacking,

it will be ok keep stacking, right?

beinki's picture

My "V" message

                

DirkAVA's picture

No hard feelings

No hard feelings Turd, we appreciate your work ;). Keep ya head up!

Shill's picture

HUI

HUI 583 and climbing....take notice.

SilverBoy's picture

Gold can pullback to 1600.

There is a lot of new comers, safe haven seekers and speculative money in gold. They will be shaken down.

Shill's picture

I don't know, but I am

I don't know, but I am digging it.

583.74

Bay of Pigs's picture

BlowHorn [CNBS]

Can't wait for the "experts" on gold like Gartman to start chiming in again.

"It sure looks risky here...", or "I wouldn't touch it now", and "It's like trying to catch a falling knife", etc...

Thanks Turd for keeping it real.

Tom L's picture

@Shill

A close of 583.6 is significant.  The miners have held above the previous resistance band.  Will they through another 5% sell off in gold?  You could argue that all they did was give back the same that gold gave back over the last 36 hours.

I don't know at this point.  This week is going to gray what's left of mah hair!

Ta,

silver foil hat's picture

$8 away from $1818 (1826 now)

Turd, do you think that 1726 - 1740 is in the more likely in the tape tomorrow when the MH is announced to the sheeple who bought in today with all of this morning's  CNBS cheerleading?

They got their 5% before the MH announcement (that is, assuming one will be announced) now they can shave another 5%+ off for tomorrow.

edit... now $6 from 1818

and BTW, sounding the warning this morning worked well enough for me. Hope others here took advantage of it as well. Don't kick yourself Turd...

wallshot's picture

to pun?

BillAuAg's picture

Better get used to this kind

Better get used to this kind of abuse.  It's going to be a long hard climb into the future.

The lesson here is to maintain an even strain.  Stay too far North and they eveil doers will take you down.  Slow and steady will win this race.

Boomerang Johnson's picture

Gold Fibonacci Retracement Numbers

Just some numbers I threw together.

Move from 1,480 to 1,917

Total Move = 437

Fibonacci Retracements

23.6% 1,812.868

38.2% 1,751.00

50% 1,698.50

Economical Disaster's picture

Earthquake Will be called..

OBAMA's FAULT..

robov's picture

Retail Rushing to Buy Gold

when I saw the headline last night that retail was now rushing to buy gold, I thought uhh oo. You know when retail shows up to buy they are always the last ones to show up and that is what the sharks have been waiting for. That's is the perfect time to attack and fleece the average Joe as usual.

Silver is money's picture

Hey Turd

It cannot be said enough just how appreciative we all are here of the daily effort on your part to share your knowledge and different musings with us.  It doesn't go unnoticed. 

RuNuts's picture

Site Down Time?

Was it just me?

lilbromarky1's picture

remember to stop drop and

remember to stop drop and roll if the earth starts to shake again

murphy's picture

no just came back

no just came back

RuNuts's picture

Seismic Waves

RuNuts's picture

Dupe

Double post.

bobby's picture

Santa's Angels

remember!

He told us there would be a terrific battle and an ever more fierce battle with each passing round number.

We have all the information we need. Thanks Jim Sinclair!

Titus Andronicus's picture

Great Jim Rickards interview on KWN

This has probably been posted already, but it's so good I'll post it anyway.

Amoung other things, he discusses sound money and the Hugo Chavez gold move.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/8/23_Jim_Rickards.html

lostinspace's picture

Glad to see the site back

Glad to see the site back up.

Sean has a new interview with Bob Chapman.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_520583&v=yZcxqXTV8PM&feature=iv

Iowegian's picture

If Gold goes...

So will Silver.

If the EE can knock Gold all the way down to 10% correction territory, there is no way Silver will hold $41.50.

50Jim's picture

ARE YOU CHINESE READING THIS

Then I want you to take $10billion of the money and invest it into silver this week.  Instead

of J.P. Morgan buying Bank of America they will be wiped out.  Silver will end over $50 and they

will be under water.

50Jim's picture

ARE YOU CHINESE READING THIS

Then I want you to take $10billion of the money and invest it into silver this week.  Instead

of J.P. Morgan buying Bank of America they will be wiped out.  Silver will end over $50 and they

will be under water.

bensgone's picture

EE, Jackson Hole, Options Expiry, and PM smashdown.

Yesterday I posted that this week would be a test of the EE's power, and it appears that they still have plenty of fire power left to knock the crap out of the PM's.  Knowing that we have not only options expiry on Thursday for silver, and Monday for gold, we also have the Jackson Hole meeting;  Almost without exception, when these high powered meetings occur, you get a smashdown in the PM's.  I think they are about to announce something big such as more monetary easing in some form.

Why is the DOW up almost 300 points as I write? Why is oil up the dollar down and PM's down at the same time, when the fundamentals say the reverse should be happening.  Quantitive easing, means more fiat, means prices go up, especially the PM's, but noooooo, they got to make their worthless fiat look good so down goes the metals just in time for their fiat easing announcement.

Just look at these incredible volumes in the Globex that were needed to take down the metals on this last leg down. You have more volume in the Globex than you do during the regular Comex hours.  Is this insane or what?  Who in hell has the power to dump this many contracts in the after hours market? Maybe they are already selling the gold they stole from Libya.

Well, we are not out of the woods until all this short term options expiry and fat cat meetings are over.  It takes incredible balls to try and predict the direction in markets of any kind in this incredibly manipulated unpredictable climate.  Kudos to our brave Turd.  Only insiders at the FED and JP Morgan have any clue where things are going in the short term.  But we have observed their games for so long we do get some clues as to when they are going to raid, we just don't know how much.

Regardless, these criminally desperate times only assures one thing, and that is when we come out of this there will be fireworks to the upside to pay for this unwarranted smashdown in the PM's.  Lots of people like to say this is healthy, and maybe it is, but this volatility is the direct result of massive manipulation and intervention into the markets, and that dear friends, is not healthy in the long run for the general economy.

 Well, I did warn of a double whammy this week, looks like I was totally correct. Lots of the best analyst underestimate the power and tenacity of the EE to manipulate the markets and fail to adequately warn their subscribers in advance.  They are often the same fools that "poo poo" the idea that there is an "EE" and that massive manipulation going on.  As the deception and fraud are being exposed to the general public, nothing can stop the stampede into the safe harbors of precious metals in the long run.

The question is, how long can they keep the PM's suppressed this time?  We are entering very strong seasonal support for the metals.  We have many strong fundamentals pushing the price upwards.  Will we get a nice FUBM tomorrow, tonight, or will the big buyers sit on the sidelines to wait until the smoke clears?  If EE attacks tomorrow, we could have a ten day or so wait until this bull resumes its charge forward.  I am hoping given the strong fundamentals that this will not be the case.

Eric Original's picture

Coin Shop Report--Big Sea Change!!!!!

Gold, Gold, Everywhere!!

Coin shops are swimming in gold.  The Public dumped in a big way over the last few days, and the coin shop operators can't wholesale it off fast enough.  Tremendous selection, whether you want foreign gold or really sweet Double Eagles they got em and they are willing to deal!

We've been talking about how the premiums on Double Eagles have been collapsing.  Used to be nice Double Eagles were melt plus 10-15% to buy, now they are melt plus 5-10%.  On the sell side if you got some foreign gold, like pesos, coronas, etc and it used to be melt minus 5% to liquidate it, now it's melt minus 10%.  Gold, Gold, Everywhere.  

The market is screaming at you, beating you over the head with an ugly stick, better to be a buyer than a seller right now.

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