For Your Consideration

I felt I must add these four items to the site today and the only efficient way to do it is to start a new thread. My risk in doing so is that everyone will move onto this thread and ignore the two from yesterday. Please don't. The two from yesterday are very important and require your attention.

First of all, please go back and re-read this post from last weekend:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2048/look-latest-cot

The latest CoT has moderated some in its bullishness, particularly in gold. It doesn't signal the end of this historic rise in the price of gold but, maybe, you can begin to see it coming over the horizon. The silver CoT is still very strong. This is part of the reason silver rose about 50c on the Friday afternoon Globex. The Globex rise was equal parts CoT reaction and buyers front-running W.O.P.R. for Monday. 

Next, ZH posted this yesterday and you should be sure to read it. This guy, Kastring, clearly "gets it" and he writes in a way that we all can understand.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/eu-banks-solvency-or-liquidity-or-both

Having read that, I need you to read this:

http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.08.17%20Bank%20Credit%20Repo.htm

The general thesis makes a lot of sense and I can certainly see the central planning keynesians adopting this strategy as another way to perpetuate The Great Ponzi and buy additional time. Note that in comment #1 below, reader "The Hat Tip" provided us with a link to the GATA presentation made by this same author. If you've ever wondered what the heck "the end of the great keynesian experiment" means, click this link and take 10 minutes to read. Very well done.

http://financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.08.06%20GATA%20Speech.pdf

That's all for now. I'm off to watch LT#2 play some soccer. Tonight, the nice folks at webbotforum have asked me to participate in an interview of the great Jim Rogers. Needless to say, The Turd is very excited. If I have any earth-shattering nuggets to pass along, I will post them later. The full interview will likely be available on their site by mid-week. 

Just five hours and 10 minutes till the Globex open!  TF

348 Comments

The Hat Tip's picture

Macleod's GATA Speech

After you have read Turd's recommended "The Upcoming Expansion of US Bank Credit" piece by Alasdair Macleod (the last link), while waiting Globex to open, you can spend some time reading Macleod's GATA conference speech.

http://financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.08.06%20GATA%20Speech.pdf

SilverTree's picture

Anticipating the open today.

Anticipating the open today.

Eric Original's picture

Shooting report

I don't usually chime in on the guns and ammo posts, but did want to report that Son Original and I went trap shooting this morning.  Don't want to tell our scores though.  It was windy out there!

ScottJ's picture

Thanks for the Update

Hey Turd, glad to see you linked the article about US Bank Expansion, it does seem to fit in nicely, especially considering Tyler Durden's phrase of...

"Central bank policy only works when it is a surprise."  --

I wrote an article yesterday on Gold being a safe-haven and bondholders being the bagholders. 

http://thehardrightedge.com/goldsafehaven/

With the recent price explosion in gold, it is becoming evident to many that precious metals (physical gold & physical silver) are a safe-haven against the cancerous monetary system that plagues the world.  As the world stock markets have plummeted in early August on systemic risk, the market has chosen to flee for safety once again.  While many financial analysts, including the Ben Bernanke himself, argue that gold is merely tradition instead of a monetary metal, the market is signaling a very definitive answer to critics.

Gold is Money, has been money, and will be used as money as long as we do not live in a harmonious universe where money is not needed.  Ben Bernanke is either lying or severely incompetent, as Gold has been linked to the dollar from 1913-1971 under the Federal Reserve, as only recently between 1971-2011 has the US Dollar been “off” the gold standard, dangerously entrusted among the hands of a few private bankers, with no representation from the Public.

Most are wondering how high can gold reach, and how fast?  $2000? $2500 (By the end of 2011 as JP Morgan suggests)? $5000? $10,000? $20,000?  Who knows, and to be honest, the number itself is of little importance, gold is going up for the foreseeable future until we have a new monetary system.  The trending markets are showing that gold (the physical asset) is one of the only safe-havens to the western world fiat currencies and economies, as the major central banks are now “printing money” at an alarming rate to cover the unfunded obligations accrued.

Countries such as South Korea, Mexico, Russia, China, India, and many others have all been major buyers of physical gold in 2011. As if these headlines were not enough, it has been capped off the recent news that Venezuela is nationalizing their gold industry, and demanding the physical delivery of nearly 90 tonnes of physical gold from the Bank of England and JP Morgan vaults.  This will undoubtedly prove to be a catalyst in a coming major event, in which in short time we may know.  This is the quote from the Veneuzuelan Foreign Minster in response to their action.

Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro said the world’s financial system, based on the dollar, had entered into a crisis of uncertainty and we are planning to construct a new international monetary system, and especially in South America, protect ourselves from this situation.  (Source Here)

In just the last 6 months, Gold has made new all time highs against the US Dollar (USD), The Euro (EUR), The Canadian Dollar (CAD), The Australian Dollar (AUD), The Great Britain Pound (GBP), and now even the safe-haven currency (amongst other currencies), the Swiss Franc (CHF).  With the recent ascent of the Swiss Franc Gold Prices to new record highs, it may very well mark the start of the great super-cycle in gold, in which all currencies fall against gold.  This Gold breakout to highs in all major currencies at roughly the same time with the backdrop of a worldwide sovereign debt crises seems to be the perfect scenario for a swift gold appreciation, and subsequent currency devaluations (inflation).

... Continued

Turd Ferguson's picture

Nice work, Scott!

MODERATOR

Nice work, Scott!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thank you

MODERATOR

I have printed this and am going to read it now.

zilverreiger's picture

(No subject)

padme's picture

Turd is going to be famous

I always say to my family how can a skilled person like Turd is not working in a big wall street bank ?

Luckily for all of us here we have you. Turd will be famous one day, i am certain.

I just hope we will always have access of Turd's wisdom.

Au79Ag47's picture

How many ounces .999 silver are out there?

More than 250,000,000 silver eagles have been minted. Do you know how many Maples and Libertads exist? Is there any way to keep track of all the 10 oz and 100 oz bars out there? Can we keep tabs on all the 1 oz rounds? I find it hard to believe that less than 1 billion ounces of .999 fine silver exist in the world, but I could be wrong. I hope I am wrong!  I have seen the data from the Silver institute and know that we mine less than 900 million ounces/year. A fraction of that silver is used to make 999 bars and coins. 

Bay of Pigs's picture

Humpty Dumpty gold market

Well said Scott, excellent piece. Great stuff as always Turd.

Here's another article along those lines. We are headed into uncharted waters my friends.

"It is unlikely that Venezuela's gold is sitting prettily in the above-named bullion banks just waiting to be loaded on a cargo plane and sent to Caracas. It was probably loaned out long ago, and then, perhaps, redeposited at some other bullion bank and loaned out again, etc., on down the line until it was fractionalized, atomized, and otherwise depleted from its unified whole. In short, it will not be easy for the bullion banks to reassemble this golden Humpty Dumpty."

Kosares' commentary is headlined "Not Easy for Bullion Banks to Put Golden Humpty Dumpty Back Together Again" and you can find it at USAGold here:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2011/08/20/not-easy-for-bullion-banks-to...

cpnscarlet's picture

Nothing much to say really

I had a chance this AM to be a "Firster" here, but thought it was much more important to read the references. In the end, it's wasn't that "important" since the expansion of bank credit is just another stab at liquidity to get the inflation The Bernank wants so much. It is very important since it is just another attempt to kick the can, but only turning the can into a 55 gallon drum.

It walks and quacks like QE3, so call it a duck.

cpnscarlet's picture

@zilverreiger - Distirbution

On wealth distribution (and on other matters), if the bottom 70% includes those who took out liar loans and rang up huge credit card balances over the last 20 yrs, their financial statements look like crap. Therefore, they neither have wealth and more than that, they don't deserve to have any- -grasshoppers.

I'm not assuming your intent is the post, but what exactly do you want to say and what does "percentage of wealth" mean anyway? This is a term that's been tossed around quite a bit and I'd like to have an objective definition of it.

Finally, if people are "wage" and "debt slaves" in the US, they sold themselves out to it, didn't they? Or am I being too harsh asking that people think about the consequences of their actions before they sign a note? A neighbor once had a son that had to get "beaten out" of a gang and was very upset about it. My response was "cruel" - "If he willingly gave up his individual liberty (getting beat-in to the gang) for the sake of belonging to a group, then he was going to have to pay a price ("beat-out") to get it back." My neighbor didn't like that, but he couldn't argue it either. 

Haole's picture

Thanks Turd!

Have a great Sunday and have fun with the interview, great opportunity.

Ask Jim if he thinks there is active manipulation in the mining shares and/or if he thinks stealth QE3 is already underway?

Thanks ScottJ, I love posts like that... ;)

Cheers to all.

¤'s picture

Thanks TF and ScottJ

Nice selection of reading material and just your overall contributions on a daily basis are appreciated.

survivalwstyle's picture

30x face

goTTa get it now if you can... shOOt i just put up a craigslist ad.

required readings aLL. thx as always mrF, for your endleSS information. mad man love it the most hetro way poSSible dOOd.

yesterday working my suMMer job @ the coinshop sold about 100k worth and bought about 70k. AG would come acroSS the table and 2x there was someone in the shop to buy it. yesterday the buy was 40 and seLL 45 on rounds. SOLD OUT. ASE 42 and 48 about 10 left. 90% buy @ 24 and seLL @ 31. $50 face left.over 1000 rounds and 500 face went out.

4 diFFerent AU purchases came in @ just below 10k. buys @ 1820-1850 and seLLs @ 1920-1950. most of it tOO was gone by the end of the day.

this was a huge day @ the shop. demand was real both ways yesterday. people trying to get out of debt haPPy to seLL @ these "high" prices, and others haPPy to buy taking more and more out of the banking system.

the avalanche is cracking.

oh yeah....poPPed my st.G cheRRy yesterday. 2 came acroSS the table and i was able to get them both 2 for 37oo a 1908s ngc 62. first slab tOO.

No 1oo oz AG bars available from the wholesaler. the one JM we had sold @ 45oo....can we buy them again under 4k? 

without drastic EE or CME damage i do not sEE 4o again before quick trip to 5o before 9/11 then a poSSible come back and test here. 42.50. i have bEEn wrong before but it is gOOd to be LONG!   

deadcatbounce's picture

Turk interviews Rickards...

¤'s picture

ScottJ's post>Food for Thought>QE3 of another kind?

DPH: Nice post the other day on the subject below. I've also thought for awhile now that the only way out of this mess (short term) would be to allow more lax credit (debt forgiveness/tolerance) in the hopes that people will start to spend wrecklessly again. Low interest rates for a very long time and lines of credit from banks who apparently have nothing to fear/lose is the only way (short term) that our consumer based economy can get on track in a very MOPE way.

It's all about housing and getting people to spend as much money as possible. It's American human nature. When you have access to cheap money it gets spent on large ticket items or numerous mid range priced items or restaurants and other food delicacies.

They need discretionary spending to explode if they/we have any chance to grow ourselves out of this. I don't think it's possible and I see it as a short term fix and merely buying time.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2119/forget-qe-iii-feds-next-move-expand-us-bank-credit

Forget QE III, Fed's next move to Expand US Bank Credit?

The upcoming expansion of US bank credit

Since the FOMC meeting, there has been a noticeable silence over the Fed’s monetary policy following QE2. But there is some evidence that the funding of government debt at low interest rates will shift to the repo market, rather than a new round of quantitative easing.

The silence on this subject may be partly explained by the monetary focus shifting to Europe. However, it is likely that the Fed has no intention of...(cont.)

http://financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.08.17%20Bank%20Credit%20Repo.htm

American Oligarch's picture

Warning!!! - Excuse a comin over them hills people.

I am seeing today that Colonel Gaddafi is possible on the brink of defeat in Libya.

Bearing in mind what happened when Bin Laden was killed. This could be used as a pretext to smash the PM's again,

Also I think he has tons of gold bullion stashed away. This almost certainly be stolen off the Librian people, in payment for the bombing.

hhhhmm is it me or am I getting a little bit paranoid these days?

Irene's picture

@cpnscarlet

but what exactly do you want to say and what does "percentage of wealth" mean anyway? This is a term that's been tossed around quite a bit and I'd like to have an objective definition of it.

No matter how "tossed around quite a bit" these graphs are, it is true that the middle class in this country have been and will continue to suffer and decline, and that is important to all of us because without the middle class this country just becomes another banana republic or worse.

I don't know why, but you seem hung up on the belief that all sorts of poorer, unsuccessful people deserve to have punishment meted out to them big time.  I haven't seen you say the same about fraudulent bankers, politicians, etc.  Did I miss that?

You're an engineer, right?  Maybe it's time to soften that black/white POV you're bringing to your social analysis and ask yourself why you're not too big on forgiveness.  I think about all the hard-working families I now who barely have enough money to feed their kids and pay their rent/mortgage, let alone have the time and education to figure out how their country's wealth is being hijacked.  What punishment do you think they deserve for if they lose their jobs and can't pay their housing costs, etc.?

Finally, if people are "wage" and "debt slaves" in the US, they sold themselves out to it, didn't they?

Your equating wage and debt slaves (e.g., normal people who are working to raise a family and live their lives and have taken out a mortgage for their home) to people having sold themselves out is really unfair, and actually quite grotesque.  So yes, I do think you're being too harsh and wonder why.

Tesla's picture

@cpnscarlet re"FIRST"

Far more important to help your fellow Turdites by being selfless and posting:  "NEW THREAD" and link in the previous thread than to be a "FIRSTER"  IMHO

Thanks!

Physical_only's picture

@cpnscarlet

"70% includes those who took out liar loans and rang up huge credit card balances over the last 20 yrs, their financial statements look like crap"

And the smart ones used this opportunity to make their own personal bail-out:

Max out cards/lines of credit for Physical.

Claim some sort of bankruptcy number.

Are happily renting while home values continue to plummet & physical rises.

The one's who truly got screwed got an education with loans that can't be dismissed under current BK rules, have a MA/MS/PHD and can't find a job or get rid of the debt.

Is any of this ethical, the banks, government & corporations sure don't seem to care, business is business?

We either live in different times or things are just a lot clearer now? Probably thanks to the internet, wonder when we're going to lose that.

California Lawyer's picture

The Community - Analysis

Fellow Turdites:

Lately, introspection has been important to me.  Let me just ponder aloud about this blog and some things that have been swirling around in my mind for awhile:

(1) Who/What/Why is Mr. Ferguson and this blog?

I do not know.  Strangely, Turd is very famous, in a worldwide sense, yet he is totally anonymous.  He neither is famous, nor wants fame.  That my friends, is RARE. 

Thus, many questions flow from such a simple "Who is Mr. Ferguson?" curiosity: If he seeks not fame, then what?  Be not cynical, and ask questions, and then be cynical, and seek answers as well: Why is he doing this blog, then?  What has he tried to sell us all?  What multilevel marketing crap has he pushed?  What stocks/miners/etc. has he tried to sell?  Where is he steering us?  What political party has he driven us towards?  What is his upside from this blog?   Who is he taking marching orders from?

He certainly is very smart, and experienced in all that he talks about.  Cliches abound and are all true: his track record is second to none.  He pulls no punches.  He is irreverent, beholden to no one.  He talks the talk, and walks the walk. 

See, every single answer points to the inescapable conclusion that Turd is truly trying to help us, so his motivation is purely benevolent.  Again, damn RARE.

So, he acts with pure selflessness akin to Him?  Why?  Maybe one day he will open up and explain with some stories about why he got disgusted with being involved in the financial industry.  I'll buy that, in fact, that is what I believe.  Maybe I am naive.  I don't think so, but no other conclusion is possible. 

So . . .

(2) Why are WE here?

That answer is fascinating to me.  I am drawn here, for the truth of what Turd so easily explains, as well as the informative, provocative comments, and the somber predictions based on solid, empirical evidence.  None of what I get from this blog is available, in any fashion, from any source, anywhere, but here.  The commodity then, that I yearn for, is enlightened truth delivered in an analytical format, with healthy, peer-reviewed critical analysis, time-tested for veracity and credibility, all while offering unlimited opportunities for anonymous ridicule. 

I find that when people can criticize anonymously, the criticisms tend to be sharper, and more accurate.  Further, since this blog is free, the advice better be damn good, or people will not return.  The implication is that when someone pays for something, like advice, they tend to return for more of the same, not because the advice is any good, but because they have already paid for it and might as well read it.

So, this seems to be an incredibly efficient analytical model: Moderated topics, self-regulating critical analysis, synergistically and exponentially increasing in size and scope (and utility therefrom) thereby self-perpetuating and growing more powerful from a truth-exposing and real, profound learning-for-those-participating perspective.

I believe this model is superior to the current news dissemination paradigm.

But, we were all drawn here by the precious metal's/investing self-interest, or simply stated another way, selfishness in trying to gain advantage or increase wealth.  Does that sound like Keynesianism or something else?  Exactly.

Can this model be replicated in other areas?

What about higher education?  Can this model be used to teach useful higher education concepts?  I hope so, since the next bubble that is being blown all out of proportion is higher education. That bubble will burst on our watch, for sure.  Then what?  I predict the model for higher education will be just like this blog, that's what.

What else?  I don't know right now, but I am sure starting to think about it.

(3) Now what?

All of us here are necessarily possessed of certain, similar characteristics.  No matter what part of the world we live in, or our nationality or country of origin, etc., we all have the same mind set.  We are critical thinkers, questioning authority that has, certainly, failed us.  Can we all survive the downturn ahead?  Sure, we are here, aren't we?

Can we help others?  Sure, we are already doing that by being inquisitive, sharing knowledge, passing along helpful websites, tips, and telling the truth.  Can we do a better job?  Well, what is the metric for that?  How to measure one's awakening to the truth?  Note, I am NOT talking about organized religion, or spirituality, that is different.  I AM talking about financial and economic education.

My fear is that a great number of people do not want to understand, they do not want to know the truth, or as Colonel Jessup says: they "CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!"

So, as I conclude this post, I leave you with a thought: how many of US, here on the blog, will be required to manage the rebirth of freedom once the system collapses?  Are there enough of us to lead others into the new freedoms once the paper fiat ponzi system implodes?  What kind of leaders do we need to be?  What is our message?  How do we get people to follow us?  Are we risking incarceration for our beliefs or for the words or ideas we share?

I believe strongly that it is time to consider these concepts, as the system is collapsing as we all see and hear.  Let us not be idle. 

jonoso's picture

irene

hang in there on this  site:  you got a lot of  folks  like the engineer  who  are out for themselves and no one else.......   but  there are a  few good  eggs  ie   turd .   who  are willing to share the wealth....

exiledbear's picture

I swear TPTB/W do more on the weekends than they do all week

Must be nice to have 5 Saturdays and 2 Mondays. I guess.

California Lawyer's picture

Pawn Shop Report

Quick one: yesterday, I cleaned out the garage a bit, and decided to haul off some old toys, etc. to Goodwill.  One of the things I wanted to get rid of was the baby jogging stroller. It cost over $300 when new, top of the line, hand brakes, etc.  So, I get to Goodwill, and hand over all the stuff.  BUT, Goodwill does not take strollers, at all.  Why?  Damn lawyers suing and all . . . Oh well.

So, I decide to cruise by a local pawn shop, in the ethnic part of town. I was just going to give it to the guy if he wanted it.  If not, then I was going to take it over to the Carniceria, and offer it to the first family I saw. 

Anyway, pawn shop guy's eyes light up when he asked me how much I wanted for it, and I said, just take it and make sure to give it to a worthy family.  He pointed to a young mother with three kids, and I smiled.

Then, I decided to peruse the gold/silver coins.  He told me that THERE WERE NO GOLD ITEMS, AT ALL.  Everything was sold out.  Fascinating, and scary.  Seems there were more BUYERS of gold, than sellers, despite the huge "WE BUY GOLD" signs plastered all over the windows, etc.

Silver coins?  There were several very interesting ones.  I picked up two Liberty Head 1926 and 1923 silver dollars, $50 each.  I also got a beautiful slabbed Mother's day silver coin (1 ounce) from Franklin mint, for $55.  I finished up with a boxed Liberty coin for $50.  I am going to give that to my father in law next time he babysits for a weekend.

Anyhow, 4 ounces, $200, and a story.

Keep stacking.

Irene's picture

@jonoso

Thanks.  Some of my best friends are Turdites.  ;)

And, cpnscarlet, I know you bring a lot to bring to this blog, just this obsession with "they deserve it" seems a bit much.

SilverLeaf's picture

Also read the latest issue of Things That Make You Go Hmmm

http://www.scribd.com/doc/62765636/Hmmm-August-20-2011

He breaks down the details of Venezuela's announcement last week of repatriating its gold. Excellent analysis.

exiledbear's picture

Who cares who the Turd is?

I like his TA. I can't find anything in his analysis or opinions that I disagree with, and I've learned over the years to do my own work first and then listen to what everyone else is saying 2nd.

You start putting others first, like Livermore did and you get screwed fast.

I'm here, because it's a nice place to hang out with a bunch of people who are also bullish on the PMs. Where else are you gonna go? To the tinfoil hat sites? Yeah sure you might find some gold threads, but those places, stupidity knows no bounds. I guess there's always ZH but ZH's forum doesn't allow you to post videos. And ZH isn't focused on PMs the way this forum is.

Besides, sites like these are necessary for the growth of the PM bull market anyway. Trust me, if it wasn't Turd, it would be someone else. These 20 year cycles will print their full pattern - one way or another.

ScottJ's picture

California Lawyer - Bravo for Stretching the Perspective

;)

I am glad to see that others are thinking as I am thinking.  I am full time "knowledge warrior," as I am broadening my perspectives to try to understand what I can do in this current situation.  You must be aware before you can prepare.

And what I have been emphasizing lately is that we must work as a collective, or we will fall as individuals.  I am well aware of all of the obstacles and struggles that encompass it, but I really don't see any way around it.  That old saying just like "YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!" can be said the same with "Divided we fall, United we Stand."

This is a time of great awakening for man, as even us here are unaware to the true workings of the world.  If indeed there is truth to any of this Comet Elenin conversation, or any astrological changes in which affect the Earth, it may awaken the sleepwalkers to the understanding of the deceit we have been placed upon... in a rejection of the material world.  In any case, I believe that more importantly than anything else, is to work on your mind right now.  Yes, it is good to physically prepare for what is coming and the madness that is statistically likely, however, it is not guaranteed.  All it takes is one common perspective to change the world, as we can now speak to each other.  This is the time to strive for everything, not cower in fear.

Fantastic post!

Ron Paul is only a Vehicle to truth, not the truth itself.  Understand truth FOR YOURSELF and you will be just as powerful as any other knowledge warrior out there.  Never idolize the man, as he is empowered by the WORDS and LANGUAGE that he chooses to speak.  The man himself is just flesh and bones.  Be the change you want to see in the world means BE THE CHANGE you want to be, not just repeat the change you want to see....

But this is definitely a delicate process.  We are all on our own unique cycles.

-

I love this post, it helps spread the perspective of so many that are just waiting to share what they know!  The energy is building!

I tried writing about it a bit on my post, http://thehardrightedge.com/are-you-aware/

Thanks for your fantastic contribution,

“It was curious to think that the sky was the same for everybody, in Eurasia or Eastasia as well as here. And the people under the sky were also very much the same–everywhere, all over the world, hundreds or thousands of millions of people just like this, people ignorant of one another’s existence, held apart by walls of hatred and lies, and yet almost exactly the same–people who had never learned to think but were storing up in their hearts and bellies and muscles the power that would one day overturn the world.”
- George Orwell, 1984, Book 1, Chapter 10

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