Feeling Good, Louis!

The Turd has had himself a couple of nice days. With Sep silver near 38.50, I gave you $44 by Labor Day. It remains to be seen if it will make it but I've already made a tidy little profit. Gold has been even better. I gave you a bottom near 1725 late last week and, since, gold has rallied over $60. That'll work for daddy, too. I sincerely hope you've been able to make a little fiat along the way, also. Now, the $18,000,000,000,000 question is...where do we go from here?

The way the gold chart looks, I can't imagine that it won't trade up to and even through 1800 overnight or tomorrow. Headline risk can, of course, change everything. However, there is absolutely nothing on the chart to stop it so I expect it to happen. Typically, when something rolls to a peak like gold did last week and then hits a speedbump, you get a rally to a potential double-top. This is exactly what I expect to happen. Gold will get to 1800, maybe even 1810+ and then The Cartel will unleash the monkeys is an attempt to paint the double top. They'll most likely be successful, at least for a few days. I'd expect gold to tap the ceiling and then pull back later this week or early next into solid buying support near 1775. From that base, when all the top-calling douchebags are out in full force, gold will reverse and charge to new highs. This is what I'd typically expect but, as you know, nothing about this late summer rally has been typical so don't set it in stone. It's simply something to watch for. Either way, gold is headed higher. Don't listen to the bubble nonsense. Don't listen to the double-top nonsense, either. Gold is going higher. Period.

paper_8-16amgold_0.jpg

Silver is subject to some manipulation here, too. I'm getting the distinct impression that, like late June, The EE is trying to keep "deliverables" in September to a minimum. You may recall that the silver rally from 34 to 42 happened in July, once trading in the "delivery month" July contract was off the board. It feels the same way here. Do not be surprised to see the Forces of Evil attempt to keep a lid on price through late next week. They need to have as few stand for delivery in September as possible. With this in mind, two things:

1) I sold my Sep calls at a small loss today. They expire next Thursday and they were far enough out of the money that I didn't want to jack with them any longer.

2) Clearing the Sunday 8/7 evening highs of 40.40 will send silver immediately back toward 42. I would imagine that The Wicked Witch would like to avoid this at all costs so she will send the monkeys to defend 40.40 with significant amounts of unbacked paper. Look for a potential pullback all the way to 39.50 or even 39. From there, I'll be an aggressive buyer. We'll see. Ole Turd can't be right all of the time...just most of the time. wink

paper_8-16amsilv_0.jpg

That's all for now. Turd's got a busy night ahead of him so I might not check in again until tomorrow morning. Until then, keep the faith and enjoy the ride. TF

p.s. I'm still looking for a mailing address for "Two Gun Tobin". Tobe, I need to send you your hat! Email me with the info. Thanks!

263 Comments

lostinspace's picture

Looking Good Billy Ray!

Looking Good Billy Ray!

$40 and holding...

speconomist's picture

.

Silver and Gold contained by the Evil Empire at $40.00 and $1785, not for long.

KWN interview to James Turk (from GoldMoney): 

Also, the last Keiser Report episode:

raulv's picture

Gold Scams Report

This was recently made by Peter Schiff, it contains very interesting information about coins, et al. so, in case you're planning to keep loading the truck with silver and gold, please read it (it doesnt matter if you do not support Schiff, his comments or his company), the information contained is very useful for all that ppl interested in investing in PMs

Here's the link:

http://www.multiupload.com/7EOXZJOSLW

*Taken from last thread

Bay of Pigs's picture

London Fix

I might add we saw a new record high close today @ $1782.50 on the PM close. Only the $1786 AM fix from 8/11/11 stands in the way of new all time highs.

Hell Yeah Turd! Keep it coming....even if more margin hikes are on the way (I assume they are).

SilverTree's picture

Great job as always Turd!

stress-busters-relaxation-inventions-Pat

California Lawyer's picture

Turd, I will be Two Gun Tobin's Proxy, Send the Hat to Me!

If Two Gun Tobin fails to claim his booty, I will do the honorable thing, and claim his prize for him, holding it in trust, of course.  Although, there will be a slight storage and usage fee . . .

wink

Bro D's picture

Feeling good, too, Turd! 

Feeling good, too, Turd!  Here's one DPH will probably recognize.

Three Dog Night - Good Feeling 1957

Dr G's picture

Maybe someday soon, Silver

Maybe someday soon, Silver will get a fire under it and start making some convincing moves. Those big moves of April seem to be a distant memory now. I wonder what would happen if the manipulation/suppression of silver actually stopped. Where would the actual price be right now? $45? $50? Higher than either of those?

Things that make you wonder.

Josephj36's picture

Gas prices these days

¤'s picture

PM's rising afterhours>Could it be...

theworldhaschanged's picture

@californialawyer

sounds like an unallocated account.

Titus Andronicus's picture

Iggy on Letterman

"Critics fronting frantically in New York City."

Larry's picture

HFT knows no doldrums

"This is what I'd typically expect but, as you know, nothing about this late summer rally has been typical so don't set it in stone." - The Esteamed Turd

So true. With the EE paper controlled HFT markets right now... from the POSX and Swissy, to ETFs and even the best of breed miners, the best laid plans can be trashed in a heartbeat. Must nibble, rethink, change, adapt, wait, strike and, my favorite tactic... be right sit tight. 

Which is why, other than stackable, all of my plans are carved in Jello.

Gold Buffalo's picture

Mkt Anthropology Down on Silver

Just curious if anyone follows this guy and has a view on his analysis.  He is down on silver.  He follows patterns too, but he has a different take on it than the Turd and others who post here.

http://www.marketanthropology.com/

¤'s picture

Geez,was it something I said...

...silver down immediately after I posted that vid.

Well, one of these nights.

Gunrunner's picture

Was feeling great today

Was feeling great today watching the silver climb the ladder after buying 25 bars at 38.00 +1.00 over spot Friday and saw the premium disappear.  Now someone in The southern hemisphere decided to blow my day.  But I still think I did the right thing buying when I did.

BTW.  I posted a couple of weeks ago about the seemingly endless amount that my coin shop had to offer.  Now, it is going away as fast as he can get it.  No ASE's, no Maples, just bars and a couple of rounds.  Has anyone else been seeing the inventory going down as of late?  He was kind enough to place me near the top of his call list since I am a regular customer.

Eric Original's picture

Greatest Ham Joke of All Time

"Boswell" posted the greatest line ever regarding the "Ham Denial" scandal.  Unfortunately he put it about two threads back so I'm copying it here so people will see it.  ​emphasis mine

​Tail end of the "Three Overnight Items" thread.  Please everybody go back and hat tip Boswell.  He deserves every single one!

I'm guessing my commish from this episode will now be cut in half.  Half of nuthin' is...um...nuthin'.  Story of my life......

Ham hits the fan Submitted by Boswell on August 16, 2011 - 2:35pm. Hat Tip! 0 Don't you guys ever learn? Apparently your "paper" hams are worthless! ;-) I'm stacking physical. Went to two local stores and got 6. Also had the annoying lady in line in front of me and the checker felt sorry and gave me the 15% "Senior" discount! 3 for $1.99ea!!! Try asking if you can pass for 55+.

Eric Original's picture

On my way to the coin shop

On my way to the coin shop to swap for the most super nicest MS -61 ish looking St. Gaudens $20 Double Eagle that I've ever had the nerve to pay up a premium for.  Wish me luck.

silver foil hat's picture

Started a "wynter_benton" topic under Conspiracy Theories Forum

Post your thoughts there..

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2084/wynterbenton-topic

A preview of the post I started...

I am not sure if anyone else has started a "wynter_benton" topic yet for discussion.

For those who do not know who / what "wynter" is, "they" claim they are former JPM traders who are VERY knowledgeable about how Blythe shorts the silver market on the COMEX and are 'going after' Blythe (and JPM) in a big way.

Here's a complete file on their messages as they posted them (with dates) on the Yahoo finance (JPM) board.

http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/02/wynterbenton-diaries-or-wynter-benton.html

Most recently, they have restated that JPM will suffer significant losses in derivatives IF the price silver (COMEX close) is over $36.00 for 60 days. Since posting that last month, silver has not closed below $36.00. Further, they have made cryptic references about an 'ultimatum' (it would suggest by the tone of another recent message) stating that if silver ever closed below $36.00 paper price, 'they' would clean out the COMEX.

Their most recent message was directed to what appears to be Blythe's boss and stated that unless their demand was met, things would go "thermonuclear' in silver. The deadline for this was to be August 21.

At this time, I will state other than what I read on the public boards as posted on the internet, I have no idea if this group is actually real, or what their actual intentions are. But, it is much more than a casual relationship (coincidental) that significant price changes, and now what I am postulating, volume changes are occurring immediately subsequent to their posts which could be the validation that the group is doing something about JPM and its (apparent) manipulation of silver. Who 'they' are working for? I don't know.

Their most recent 'notice' is cryptic, but from the trading this week, it would appear that their 'ultimatum' was that the manipulators stop selling (naked shorting) the silver COMEX market. For this, I refer to a note that was posted here regarding a reference to a CNBC e-mail that said that the big banks were not going to short silver anymore. Interestingly, yesterday sgs posts on his blog that the volume on the COMEX has been down the past few days.

http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/08/has-everyone-given-up-on-comex.html

As I said, I have no idea if this group is real (for all I know, it could be the EE that must, as a rule that they are bound to by 'ethics', put out the information that this is what 'they' will do... as long as they telegraph their intentions to the world, they can do as they please) but it would seem that IMO, there is much more than a casual relationship between what they indicate their intended action is and what actually happens in  the silver market.

Anyone else have any thoughts? I don't care if you think they (wynter et. al.) are  full of *it, or that you agree with me,  just state your case why.

Tesla's picture

OI Silver (-313 total)

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/16/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

39.775

40.080

39.360

-

+.523

39.821

216

60

SEP 11

39.945

40.175

39.290

-

+.512

39.819

35,715

41,290

OCT 11

40.080

40.080

40.080

-

+.511

39.834

7

38

DEC 11

39.785

40.200

39.330

-

+.511

39.848

10,113

43,411

JAN 12

39.510

39.540

39.390

-

+.512

39.855

10

133

MAR 12

39.700

40.015

39.375

-

+.512

39.861

1,379

6,529

MAY 12

39.990

39.990

39.990

-

+.514

39.850

27

2,275

JLY 12

39.465

40.000

39.460

-

+.514

39.831

34

1,952

SEP 12

39.895

39.980

39.885

-

+.513

39.799

12

314

DEC 12

39.695

40.015

39.315

-

+.513

39.733

29

8,437

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

+.512

39.704

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

+.510

39.638

-

435

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

+.508

39.592

-

35

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

+.506

39.518

-

2,209

DEC 13

-

-

-

-

+.506

39.402

79

6,631

JLY 14

-

-

-

-

+.503

39.169

-

232

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+.501

39.047

-

1,186

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

+.501

38.812

-

156

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

+.498

38.667

-

497

JLY 16

-

-

-

-

+.498

38.547

-

38

Total

47,621

115,859

Last Updated 08/16/2011 01:32 PM

HB's picture

Baer's Bull - PRICE DIVERGENCE: COMEX vs HKMEx

Turdites,

Check out this article. Perhaps we are about to see a real difference in price of PM's in  Asia and the West.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Blogs/ViewDetailedPost.aspx?p=119449

Tesla's picture

OI Gold (-2860 total)

Daily Settlements for Gold Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/16/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

1769.0

1786.4

1761.6

-

+26.9

1782.4

244

1,101

SEP 11

1766.3

1786.7

1761.3

-

+26.9

1782.5

1,378

2,721

OCT 11

1766.7

1787.8

1762.1

-

+27.0

1783.4

8,152

26,762

DEC 11

1768.5

1789.8

1763.6

1776.5

+27.0

1785.0

150,124

360,671

FEB 12

1770.7

1790.1

1766.4

-

+27.0

1787.1

1,917

25,058

APR 12

1769.5

1792.2

1769.5

-

+27.0

1789.1

186

7,023

JUN 12

1776.6

1790.3

1776.6

-

+27.0

1791.1

49

15,891

AUG 12

1791.9

1795.8

1791.9

-

+27.0

1792.8

10

6,187

OCT 12

1791.9

1794.1

1791.9

-

+27.0

1794.7

5

4,183

DEC 12

1780.4

1799.5

1779.4

1795.5

+27.1

1796.7

63

11,974

FEB 13

-

-

-

-

+27.1

1798.5

4

1,578

APR 13

-

-

-

-

+27.1

1800.5

-

335

JUN 13

-

-

-

-

+27.1

1802.9

60

11,785

DEC 13

-

-

-

-

+27.2

1812.6

56

12,499

JUN 14

1824.1

1832.7

1824.1

-

+27.0

1824.6

2

3,615

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+26.9

1840.1

25

9,875

JUN 15

-

-

-

-

+26.9

1859.7

-

4,780

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

+26.9

1882.8

75

3,509

JUN 16

-

-

-

-

+26.2

1907.6

-

31

DEC 16

-

-

-

-

+25.5

1935.3

85

1,113

JUN 17

-

-

-

-

+22.5

1966.6

10

40

Total

162,445

510,731

Last Updated 08/16/2011 01:32 PM

Ojibwemowin's picture

resolute and steadfast

Just keep buying physical out of principal and for long term security.

The wife, kids and I headed up to our homestead for a long weekend and cut more firewood and fixed a deer stand demolished by a fallen spruce. We were feeling a little tired upon our return and thought about going out for dinner tonight, but instead I read this blog, dug some potatoes, carrots and an onion from the garden. Picked a few tomatoes, cucumbers and yellow squash. Dug in the freezer and found a package of homemade venison brats on top. With the money we would have spent on dinner we bought more 90% US silver coins.  Its only a couple face dollars worth this time, but every little bit helps the long term plan.

TheGoodDoctor's picture

@HB COMEX VS HKMEX I have to

@HB COMEX VS HKMEX

I have to laugh at the price divergence of silver between the two with the caveat "oh the Asians think of silver as money more than the West". That will be fixed soon enough. Supply is supply.

After the Storm's picture

A few "Big Picture" charts from Adam Brochert

The key thing to look at in the first chart is the MACD at the bottom. It is RISING TO A HIGHER "NORMAL RANGE".  "This type of MACD shift to a higher range has been seen in multiple prior secular equity bull markets as the parabolic phase higher began. I don't think this time is an exception. It's just that time in the investment cycle, nothing more. And the fundamentals support this fledgling move completely." 

Gold%2B12%2Byear%2Bweekly%2Bchart%2Bthru

The second chart is the common dow to gold ratio. It is making an impulse move like it did in 2008.  Heading, eventually, to at least 2, probably 1 as many experts have talked about.

Dow%2Bto%2BGold%2B20%2Byear%2Bchart%2Bth

Two Gun Tobin's picture

A little Help

Hey, will someone give me a clue about getting an email to Mr. Turd.  I went to contact off the main screen and sent an email, but i guess that's not right.. I'm not sure which way to go? 

FogHorn LegHorn's picture

Lou UK perspective

Thanks Lou , for your thoughts and posts!
Keep up the good work, My eyes have been opened recently. Mass media brainwashing, promoting rabid consumerism of the younger generation, was not on my radar until the rioting in the UK surfaced.
God help us when these seeds come to full fruition! ---"Coming to a theater near You. "
------SOON!!
We have no one to blame but Ourselves, turning a blind eye to the crooks running the show. We have set the example for Our children, apparently they" were" paying attention! God help us!

Charles S. Hamlin's picture

Seven disturbing facts

Nothing that we don't already know, but an interesting read...enjoy!

Seven startling things most people still dont know about the national debt, banking and the money supply

August 2, 2011

By Mike Adams - Natural News

Most people, even smart people, know surprisingly little about the way money really works in Big Government. With the debt ceiling fiasco suddenly raising awareness of the possibility of a total global financial blowout, now seems like a good time to remind people of seven disturbing facts about money that are almost never acknowledge in the old media.

Fact #1 – There is no FDIC insurance fund.

The money at your bank is insured against loss by the FDIC’s insurance fund, right? Nope. That’s total fiction. There is no actual money in the fund. The FDIC insurance money has already been looted by the U.S. Treasury which has simply replaced the money with a bunch of IOUs.

Why does this matter? Because it means that if the U.S. government goes into default, so will the FDIC! And that means all your bank funds have zero insurance. That’s gonna be a big shock for tens of millions of people when they finally figure this out one day…

Fact #2 – There are no social security funds, either.

When you pay social security taxes, all that money goes into a trust fund that’s held for safekeeping until the day it pays you back, right?

Ha! That’s the “sucker’s view” of social security that only ignorant people believe. In reality, there is no money in the social security trust fund because it too has all been looted by the U.S. Treasury and spent. In truth, social security is already broke. Can’t wait for people to wake up and figure this one out, either…

http://rotate.infowars.com/www/delivery/lg.php?bannerid=1115&campaignid=247&zoneid=127&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.prisonplanet.com%2Fseven-startling-things-most-people-still-don%25e2%2580%2599t-know-about-the-national-debt-banking-and-the-money-supply.html&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.prisonplanet.com%2F&cb=d8088d88a3

Fact #3 – The U.S. Treasury is stealing money from you every day, even if you pay no taxes!

Here’s a mind-boggling truth that most people just can’t seem to get their heads around: The U.S. Treasury is stealing money from you every single day by the simple fact that they keep creating new money and handing it out to wealthy banksters. Well, technically this is being done by the Federal Reserve, which isn’t even part of the federal government. But it’s all done in cahoots with the Treasury, which is eroding the value of your money through these money creation and distribution actions.

That’s why prices keep going up all around you, folks: Food isn’t suddenly worth more money; the truth is that your money is worth less! That’s how the Treasury and the Federal Reserve steal from you without even breaking into your home.

Probably 99.9% of the population has no understanding of this phenomenon — the erosion of currency valuation through the centralized government printing of more currency. And yet it is a government scam that has been carried out against citizens of the world time and time again, spanning millennia! As history has clearly shown, every nation that goes down the path of printing more currency to pay its bills eventually ends up in a runaway hyperinflation scenario followed by economic collapse. The USA will be no different.

Fact #4 – The “balanced solution” isn’t balanced.

Don’t you love the quirky White House Press Secretary who keeps spewing out the phrase “balanced solution” even while the debt deal leaves the U.S. budget entirelyunbalanced?

When you’re spending more money than you’re earning, that’s not financial balance. When the White House says “balanced” what it really means is “compromised” — as in, half way between the Republican position (spend us into purgatory) and the Democratic position (spend us into oblivion). Neither party has any real solution to the cancerous growth of Big Government. That’s because they are creatures of Big Government!
 

Politicians can no more solve the problems of Big Government than arsonists can solve the problem of office fires. Because they are, themselves, creatures of runaway debt spending (how else do you get elected these days?), they simply do not possess the cognitive framework from which real financial solutions must stem.

Fact #5 – The government is going to steal everything from you before it collapses

Oh my, this is a tough one for people to get their heads around… especially those who naively trust governments to act in the interests of the People. The simple truth of the matter — and I’ve publicly made this prediction before — is that the government is going to STEAL almost everything you own as it heads toward a total financial implosion. This will include:

• The government theft of private retirement accounts. The feds will claim they’re taking them over “for your protection.” Yeah, right. And then one day they will simply all vanish. Kiss your IRA goodbye…

• The government theft of precious metals. Within the next 3 years, watch for a national emergency to be declared, followed by government confiscation of gold and silver. The feds will take your gold and hand you paper money in exchange. The paper money, of course, will be all but worthless shortly thereafter. Only the suckers, of course, will actually turn in their metals…

• Government takeover of your bank accounts. As banks begin to fail in the big collapse, the government will step in and take ownership of the failed institutions, just as it did with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which used to be publicly-owned companies but are now largely just government finance operations). This will put your bank accounts under the direct control of the White House, which can useexecutive orders to do things like banning all wire transfers out of the country or limiting daily withdrawals and transfers. Sure, you’ll still “own” your money in the bank, you just won’t be able to freely access it!

Fact #6 – Most people have no idea about fractional reserve banking, derivatives, the money supply or the Federal Reserve

It’s not just that most people don’t understand banking and finance; it’s that evenmembers of Congress have no idea how all this works. With few exceptions (like Ron Paul), they’re just clueless!

Get this: Even most bankers don’t even know how fractional reserve banking really works. They don’t understand derivatives, either, which is why they screwed them up so badly in the housing boom that crashed in 2007. And because bankers, investors and bureaucrats have no idea how it all works, they unwittingly turn it all into a runaway catastrophe.

Allowing ignorant adults to play with debt and derivatives is like letting infants play with nuclear weapons. It can only lead to something messy.

Fact #7 – Most people are betting their lives on the dollar

People buy insurance for their cars, their homes and even their health. But when it comes to money, 99 out of 100 people in America are betting their entire financial existence on the U.S. dollar! They get their paychecks in dollars, their savings accounts are in dollars, and all their assets are denominated in dollars. As a result, they have no diversity to protect them against dollar devaluation.

That’s kinda crazy, considering just how quickly the dollar could collapse in the near future and become totally worthless. That’s why smart people are diversifying their assets and converting dollars into land, gold, silver or even storable food. Here in central Texas, even ammunition has a long-term barter value that far exceeds dollars.

Looking around at the financial behaviors of others, I’m just stunned at how many people are betting everything on the dollar because they never realized they had any other option (that’s the way the government likes to keep it, of course!).

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