Objectives Met

As you know, I've been looking for a short-term peak in Dec gold, somewhere around 1680. I've also been looking for Sep silver to trade to a peak between 42 and 42.50. You may have noticed that this morning I simply split the difference and called for 42.25. I have intraday highs of $1675.90 in the December gold and $42.06 in the September silver. That's definitely close enough!

It looks to me like The Cartel has had enough for now. Combine that with an overall desire to lock in some gains and you've got a recipe for a small selloff. The Cartel my have tipped their hand a bit by whacking gold for $6 in one minute, just three minutes after the Comex close. It's hard to say for sure but history suggests that they will come back for more later this afternoon and overnight. The key now is to find points where we can buy back in for a short-term trade. The charts below should help.

paper_8-3pmgold.jpgpaper_8-3pmsilv.jpg

If you're interested, here's my strategy:

Earlier today, I sold my spreads of Dec 1600 vs Dec 1700 calls. I rolled into new spreads of Dec 1700 vs Dec 1800. I'm still "long" but this freed up quite a bit of cash. I also changed around my silver spreads. You may recall that I was long the Dec 45s and short the Dec 50s against them. Again, to raise some trading cash, I sold my 45s and bought some 48s. So, my new spread is Dec 48 vs Dec 50.

Now, with my liquidity "issue" solved, I'm going to be looking to buy the dip I expect to see between now and this time tomorrow. Even though I expect a "modest positive surprise" in the BLSBS report Friday, I'd still like to do some buying before the report comes out, just in case I'm wrong and the report shows something like -50,000 payrolls! If I get the opportunity, I'd like to buy some October gold calls as well as some September silver. Keep an eye on the numbers I've given you and I'll let you know if I make any moves.

Have a great evening! TF

4:10 EDT UPDATE:

Just wanted to go ahead and get "on the record" here. I do not at all like the unusual action on the Globex this afternoon. The entire thing stinks of an upcoming raid, probably overnight and into tomorrow. Additionally, we know that The Cartel likes to raid the metals on the day before the BLSBS report, too. Combine that with this ugly, 5-minute chart and I think its safe to predict the raid I suspected earlier.

paper_8-3pmgold5.jpg

Let's watch and see. I've got a last on Dec gold at 1663. As mentioned above, a preliminary target for a selloff tonight and tomorrow would be 1635-45. Be prepared. TF

195 Comments

margaritatime's picture

Nice!

Thanks TF

assetcoin's picture

Thanks much!

I appreciate your insight, as usual!

Tesla's picture

Eye on #s - Check

Thanks Turd and Good Trading To All!

slaughterer's picture

Is it normal for SLV to move

Is it normal for SLV to move like an inverse ETF of SPY all day?  Because that is what I saw...

Dr G's picture

The amazing thing about our

The amazing thing about our Turd is that not only does he give you numbers and chart analysis, but he also lays out his full plan for us. He's so straightforward with it all. Very refreshing. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

I must agree

MODERATOR

Turd is awesome! What a guy!

Blight Master's picture

Ramp up stocks into close?

Ramp up stocks into close? Like, come on...

Violent Rhetoric's picture

Goldman Sachs Update

Meet the new boss same as the old boss

http://hotair.com/archives/2011/08/03/geithner-out-corzine-in/

Little Tim to Goldman Sachs , Jon Corzine (former Goldman Sachs CEO) to the treasury

Revolving door.

Mickey's picture

JUst a thought

Who amongst us is old enough to recall when the NYSE traded 5 million shares in a day?

Now something like SLV trades 300,000 shares in a minute (with some help from the EE).

bullwhip29's picture

@ PandaLiberator

Re: Ramp up...

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if there is a short term bounce in stocks. (in fact,we could see a frantic short covering rally into the close) It is also possible the stage is being set for something bigger (like we saw last Aug/Sept). I wouldn't go overboard with the shorts at this point. If my memory serves me correctly, the PM's did OK too following the launch of QE2 ;)

Shill's picture

To the Street with you

SilverTree's picture

.

useconomy.png

Blight Master's picture

Insane to me

A lot of you guys know I'm younger than most members here, I'm pretty new to economics, investing, and wealth preservation. Got to say though theres nothing more exhilarating than making more fiat in one day than I make at my job in over a month just from saving my wealth in PM's. I guess I didnt really make any fiat because I havent sold, and dont really plan on selling, but calculating my PM wealth in fiat terms is breathtaking. My deepest thanks to all of you and Mr Turd Ferguson for keeping me in the game and doubling down after the May-day massacre. Theres no way I can thank all of you enough for providing all of the info I needed to navigate these waters. If you're ever down in Bama hit me up, I'll buy you a beer, or if things keep going the way they are I'll buy you a freaking house.

Cheers to the stackers of the world and all of the traders for providing us with such great TA, opinions, and ideas.

Tesla's picture

Silver OI

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/03/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

41.310

41.905

41.080

-

+1.666

41.747

23

25

SEP 11

40.870

42.060

40.575

-

+1.666

41.758

61,905

58,468

OCT 11

41.200

41.790

40.850

-

+1.669

41.772

18

6

DEC 11

40.825

42.075

40.625

-

+1.669

41.787

9,431

32,452

JAN 12

40.875

41.970

40.850

-

+1.671

41.790

36

138

MAR 12

40.795

41.970

40.795

-

+1.675

41.796

1,020

5,592

MAY 12

41.945

41.945

41.880A

-

+1.674

41.776

137

1,721

JLY 12

41.590

41.945B

41.590

-

+1.681

41.769

71

1,853

SEP 12

40.665

41.685

40.620

-

+1.681

41.743

24

291

DEC 12

41.095

41.760

40.720

-

+1.680

41.682

74

8,345

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

+1.680

41.658

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

+1.680

41.601

5

425

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

+1.680

41.547

-

-

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

+1.680

41.505

-

2,211

DEC 13

40.990

40.990

40.990

-

+1.680

41.412

5

6,803

JLY 14

40.500

40.500

40.500

-

+1.680

41.237

1

232

DEC 14

40.490

40.490

40.490

-

+1.678

41.137

2

1,181

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

+1.675

40.962

-

166

DEC 15

40.395

40.780

40.125A

-

+1.675

40.845

4

475

JLY 16

-

39.105B

-

-

+1.675

40.745

-

-

Total

72,756

120,385

Last Updated 08/03/2011 01:32 PM

Tesla's picture

Gold OI

Daily Settlements for Gold Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/03/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

1659.9

1672.3

1651.6

-

+21.5

1663.4

1,776

5,681

SEP 11

1661.7

1673.3

1652.4

-

+21.6

1663.9

4,793

9,122

OCT 11

1662.0

1675.3

1653.1

-

+21.8

1664.9

11,275

26,151

DEC 11

1662.5

1675.9

1654.4

1667.1

+21.8

1666.3

164,461

385,002

FEB 12

1663.7

1675.8

1656.9

-

+22.0

1667.9

2,550

12,753

APR 12

1663.7

1676.9

1658.0

-

+22.0

1669.5

1,004

6,303

JUN 12

1666.5

1679.7

1660.5

-

+22.1

1671.3

503

15,051

AUG 12

1678.0

1680.5

1675.1

-

+22.1

1673.2

166

5,521

OCT 12

-

1676.5B

-

-

+22.1

1675.3

127

4,161

DEC 12

1666.5

1685.9

1666.5

-

+22.2

1677.8

354

12,181

FEB 13

1675.2

1685.0

1675.2

-

+22.1

1679.8

28

1,558

APR 13

-

-

-

-

+22.1

1682.3

-

226

JUN 13

1683.9

1686.5

1683.9

-

+22.2

1685.2

82

11,474

DEC 13

-

1675.0B

-

-

+22.4

1696.9

37

12,610

JUN 14

-

-

-

-

+22.4

1711.1

50

3,598

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+22.4

1729.1

25

9,748

JUN 15

1760.0

1760.0

1758.0A

-

+22.2

1751.2

26

4,269

DEC 15

1785.8

1785.8

1785.8

-

+21.6

1777.1

7

3,116

JUN 16

-

-

-

-

+21.1

1805.9

-

6

DEC 16

-

-

-

-

+20.6

1837.8

-

842

JUN 17

-

-

-

-

+20.6

1874.8

-

30

Total

187,264

529,403

Last Updated 08/03/2011 01:32 PM

ewc58's picture

Way to stack Panda

Turd's goal has always been to do just that: to help educate and to lead to the Promised Land those with the good sense to listen and get aboard. It is just fantastic to hear of your results, your excitement is tangible. And contagious.

Roll Tide

Colonel Angus's picture

PandaLiberator...

First, you should not just be liberating the pandas. I hope you have some maples, a kookaburra or two, and some eagles. And then the old junk silver...nice Morgans. Liberate it all!!!

As someone who is probably more toward the middle of the age range here, I'd say to get used to making more in metals than in the job. I'm a professor who makes an okay living, but I made more fiat on the physical silver and gold last year than my annual salary in FRNs. I sold half of the stack when silver hit 48, but I've been buying back like a madman. There are still a few deals to be had, but I've tried to be the one that has them. I'm hoping you do the same.

I'm glad to have found this community. I've only been able to convert one colleague. One particular business prof told me that "commodities are an illegitimate investment vehicle." Since my tripling up of my initial investment, we haven't discussed it. I'm glad to be the buffoon down the hall who knows nothing. But if I do know something, I'm expecting a little announcement from CME on silver margins in 3...2...1. Then we'll all be able to stack a little more PMs for the same price...hopefully. I'm worried that some of the sheep in the headlights might eventually smell the desperation. We'll see. 

Shill's picture

Raises Glass

Too Panda!

ewc58's picture

A note from Santa to cap off our day

Two Major Chapters In Growth Of Gold To Reserve Currency Complete

My Dear Friends,

I am on the road again. This time it is to speak at the GATA conference in London Friday afternoon.

The key concept in the gold market is that it has in no way performed like a classic blow-off hyperbolic top.

The price travel between $1600 and $1764 is fraught with points of resistance. The price journey in the next chapter founded by the fundamental reasons by Alf Fields and Martin Armstrong will soon be shown as correct. They will be the predictors of merit.

There is no reason to drop or reduce your gold hedges.

There is as always good reason not to carry any margin in a protective gold spread. Gold will only gain in volatility that will frustrate the greed driven mad margin trader.

Two major chapters in the growth of gold to reserve currency of the people’s choice are completed.

The last chapter is still coming going into 2015 and will be spectacular.

I will be in touch with you from the airport and hotel. I hope to see you at the conference.

Respectfully,
Jim

DefiniteMaybe's picture

@ Silver Monkey

Silver Monkey,

Welkome to fascist Amerika. That is but example of many in which this once great "beacon on the hill" is turning into a third world fascist state. Here is another example that Trader Dan posted on his site:

http://wusa9.com/news/article/161065/158/Woodpecker-Saving-Daughter-Costs-Mom-500

Or where a young girl had here lemonade stand shut down because she didn't have a permit from the county.

For more "fine" examples of examples of what a fascist police state looks like, take a look at End of Liberty at:http://inflation.us/videos.html

It breaks my heart to see this unfold in front of my eyes broken heart.

DM

Violent Rhetoric's picture

It breaks my heart to see

It breaks my heart to see this unfold in front of my eyes.

I was there too a while back. Now I'm just getting ready for the inevitable breakdown when (1) the entitlement checks don't go out or (2) won't cover the cost of food & shelter or (3) worst case scenario... reality shows on cable TV are interrupted for a couple of weeks. 

bullwhip29's picture

Gold back at low of the day

mini raid at 1:31pm

follow up raid at 3:55pm

EE bombs to drop tomorrow or Friday?????????????

eom

DefiniteMaybe's picture

@ Panda Liberator

PL,

Kudos to you. You are doing the right thing in protecting yourself from the economic madness wrought on us (We The People) by the sociopathic oligarchs (e.g., bankster class). I wish my older friends could see the light (shiny silver light that is) that you have.

DM

ewc58's picture

Bob Chapman live at 4:05 edt

Turd Ferguson's picture

YES

MODERATOR

I was just about to comment on this.

THIS IS NOT YOUR "NORMAL" GLOBEX ACTIVITY.

I take this as a sure sign that a raid in gold is coming. You can see it on a 5-minute chart, too. I'm pretty sure I'm going to get my 1635-40 tomorrow.

Turd Ferguson's picture

post updated

MODERATOR

Please refresh and check it out.

Titus Andronicus's picture

I guess dip-waiting traders will be lucky to see $1645

My guess is that gold demand is going to buy up any dip before we reach $1645 (Tuesday's pit-close price).  I don't think it will drop lower.

How many are waiting for a pull back to get into the market?  I think there are too many people around the world with very good reasons to buy gold.  A lot of people would love to get in at Tuesday's price and I expect the demand to get stronger as we approach $1645.  I'm thinking an dip will be bought strongly before we reach $1645.

Just my guess.

If we are fortunate enough to get $1646, I'm thinking maybe I'll add to my paper gold position.

Monedas's picture

Turd ?

That's what they've always done ! They let the horse run free and see where it goes on it's own.....then they slam it as it runs out of mo ! We always think maybe this time.....this time will be different ?  I can't remember when the DOW got slammed and Gold soared ! Usually, if the DOW gets slammed......Gold is punished, so that no one makes the connection that Gold is actually a safe haven !  The DOW hasn't rebounded and Gold hasn't taken a turd for the worse ? Maybe this time, maybe this time, Gold is here to stay ! Monedas 2011 White comedian and market commentator !

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