First, some business before we get to the charts.
This site is now about six weeks old and, like a six-week old, continues to grow. We've already made several, behind-the-scenes improvements in response to your feedback. Now it's time to make a few more.
As you know, this site is no longer about me...it's about you. For some reason, people take an interest in what I have to say about the PMs so I continue to write the main blog. The site as a whole, however, is about and for you. The forums, the chatroom, the charts...all are there for your education and the assistance you can provide others. The site costs quite a bit of money to maintain and the servers required to keep it running smoothly ain't cheap, either. Therefore, we have advertisements and, soon, affiliate sponsors.
Also, prior to building the site, I asked for feedback as to what features you'd like to see included. Two of the most common responses that we were unable to incorporate immediately were private messaging between members and an "ignore user" feature. I'd like to implement these features now. It comes with a catch, however. I'd like you, the user, to share in the cost. If adding private messaging and/or ignore features would be useful to you, please help defray the cost by "feeding the turd". Every little bit helps and once I get about half of the cost covered, I'll proceed with the additions. I'll keep you posted on the results of this first-ever "turdathon".
OK, back to your regularly scheduled blog. The PMs are kickin booty this morning as the nonsense continues in DC. There is a general "risk-off" feeling today as everything else is down. This may keep the metals from soaring but it should not be enough to inspire a protracted raid, either. For now, I'd love to just simply get through this day with these gains intact. A gold close above 1625 would set up another leg higher, toward the 1640-45 area. Similarly, a silver close above $41 primes a run toward 42-42.50.
It's just a hunch but I can sure see all of this coming together at about the same time. By tomorrow, the POSX begins dropping again and the PMs rally further. By Thursday or Friday, at about the time gold nears 1645-50 and silver is pushing 42.50, the POSX may be making new lows near or below 73.30 on the September contract. Then the news will hit. The grand compromise will be reached. The country will be saved. Economic nirvana will prevail. All will be well. For about a day. Then, reality will sink in. From where will all this new debt come? Hmmm? The metals will reverse and we'll be back to business as usual.
So, for today, watch 1625 and 41 very closely. More later. TF
p.s. We need a couple more "moderators", too. Anyone willing to help? If so, please email me. Thanks!!!
3:15 EDT UPDATE:
After a valiant fight, the metals finally succumbed to the short-covering rally in the dollar. Gold dipped as low as 1608.90 (remember that initial support is around 1610) before recovering slightly. Silver fell in tandem but has maintained above $40. Holding support, both technical and psychological, is very important. I'd expect the dollar rally to soon end as the "real world" re-asserts itself overnight. This should lead to a rebound in the PMs overnight and into tomorrow. Again, WHEN some type of deal is announced from DC, EXPECT the PMs to drop sharply. I'll be buying this dip. Within 24 hours (or maybe considerably less), rational minds will realize that the U.S. is again allowing itself to go even deeper into debt. These rational minds will stop the selling and the PMs will reverse.
On more thing on today's trade. Last night, Harvey again posted a note from Dave in Denver. With the benefit of hindsight, this proves quite accurate. Definitely worth considering and a good thing to file away for the next option expiry cycle:
"One quick technical point about the gold market. As of this morning there were about 18,900 open calls at 1600 that expire today on Comex gold futures. Historically, the big bank manipulators write those calls and then drive the market below the price point at which they've written calls in order to keep the premiums. It's not huge money but it's been easy money for them over the last 10 years. Today obviously those calls expired in the money by about $17, which means the holders of those calls will likely exercise their option and take delivery of futures contract. A few months ago this same situation occurred and the manipulators hammered the silver market the day after expiration, likely creating a large number of sellers out of the traders who had taken delivery of their profit-position silver futures. It was a very transparent manipulative move, but effective nonetheless. IF we don't see the manipulators successfully "run the stops" tomorrow or Wed, my bet is that we will likely see $1650 gold very quickly, as this will be a very bullish signal that the gold cartel is losing its ability to manipulate the market at will."
Lastly, the Technical Team here at TFM wanted me to point out a couple of improvements we've already made, just in case they've gone unnoticed. Here is a c&p from them:
Based on your suggestions, we adjusted the Recent Comments page (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comments/recent) so you can use it as a "dashboard" for reviewing all comments across the site. You can sort by newest or oldest first. You can choose a start date for comments. You can also filter by username and title of the forum topic or blog post. To quickly access the latest comments, click on the Comments link in the navigation bar.
The main RSS Feed has been moved to FeedBurner due to inconsistent updates with FeedCat. The new RSS feed URL is: http://feeds.feedburner.com/TFMetalsReport
OK, that's it for now. The "Turdathon" is going quite well and I hope to have some news for you soon on the potential improvements. Have a great evening. Keep an eye on the headlines!! TF