Ultraviolet

Just two simple charts for you to chew on over the weekend. I'll be unavailable for a couple of days as I'm headed to where the streets have no name. It'll be a sort of homecoming for me in the city of blinding lights, out there in God's country, where the land is often as white as snow. This time of year, however, it should be a couple of beautiful days.

First up, here's a weekly silver. As you can see, the uptrend from 2010 appears to be firmly intact. This chart confirms for me, however, that silver, above 40, will encounter some resistance around 42 to 42.50. It won't be the end of the world but there may be a period of a few weeks where gold will outperform. Ah...silver and gold. What a pair! Two hearts that beat as one!

paper_7-2silvw.jpg

Gold, on the other hand, looks magnificent...almost like staring at the sun. Gold may often seem to move in mysterious ways but, in fact, it moves with grace. Once you realize that the goal of The Cartel is to manage its ascent, you can begin to see, and rely upon, repeating patterns. The most grand of patterns is evident on the chart below:

paper_7-22goldw.jpg

The pattern above is not just the real thing, it's even better than the real thing.  Note how, since 2009, gold has followed a six-month pattern of, roughly, 20 weeks UP followed by 6 weeks down. It may appear out of control but it is, in fact, the sweetest thing. Gold is now clearly into its next 20 week UP cycle. Following pattern, we should expect a mid-November high, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1800. Not bad.

That's it for now. I must walk on with or without you. I hope you have a great weekend though of course, some days are better than others. This is my exit but I'll be back in three sunrises.  TF

316 Comments

Sterling's picture

you too?

you too?

winemaker's picture

Party Girl

She wants much more than a party.

Hard Rain's picture

Achtung Baby

...you will have fun under the Joshua Tree, I am sure.

stoneeh's picture

Anyway, I hope most realize

I hope most realize this was an artificial close over 1600/40. Why else would we have had the strong rallye this afternoon with a close exactly a few cents above these targets? It's not that the EE couldn't just have jacked it down another dollar within 10 minutes or so, as they have done now repeatedly & proven repeatedly that they're capable of.

In other news, the COT is a little less bullish now (silver 39k net shorts vs the absolute low of this year of 29k net shorts 3 weeks ago), but still bullish. Anything over 50-60k will start to be less bullish, but there have been times when we were up to as far as 80k when the corrections began.

On options expiry, we haven't always seen corrections into these. During the last 12 months it has actually been more like 50:50. Just check prices at previous options expiries and see for yourself. For example in February and March we rallied hard just through options expiry.

Good weekend to everyone.

- Markus

question's picture

Thanks Turd

"I must walk on with or without you"

Sure thing bro; follow your muse. I'm with you  even if somewhat confused by your cryptic leave taking.

Three suns it is.

May the wind be at your back and the road rise to meet your feet.

thecoloredsky's picture

fed has no name

Dr Durden's picture

Welp, the only place UII is

Welp, the only place UII is playing in the next thrice days is here in Mpls at TCF field. If this is indeed what crypitc Turd is forecasting, I will have to wear a funny yellow hat to see if I can draw him out. :D 

Schwartz9546's picture

What happens there stays there

What happen there stays there...careful!

Prize Fighter's picture

B-side bliss!

There's been a lot of talk about this blog.  Maybe, maybe too much talk.  This blog is not a rebel blog, this blog is Money, Sound Money.

Looking forward to your return with stories for boys....

Long John's picture

the Dog Days are Over.....

Happiness, hit her like a train on a track Coming towards her, stuck still no turning back She hid around corners and she hid under beds She killed it with kisses and from it she fled With every bubble she sank with a drink And washed it away down the kitchen sink

The dog days are over The dog days are done The horses are coming So you better run

Run fast for your mother run fast for your father Run for your children for your sisters and brother......f.a.t.m .

edge's picture

A woman needs a man like a fish needs a bicycle

"into the arms of AMERIKA"

Monedas's picture

Enjoy your weekend, Turd !

We are comforted, knowing that the Casinos you may visit will treat you more honestly than The Cartel ! Monedas 2011 Ever vigilant with his freedom affirming humour !

TheGoodDoctor's picture

@Turd You are going to see U2

@Turd You are going to see U2 in Colorado? cheeky

TheGoodDoctor's picture

I got it. He's going to see

I got it. He's going to see Spiderman on Broadway! smiley

Shill's picture

Yep

One guy, definitely gets it. Ron Paul

MonkeySmoke's picture

Have fun...

I hope you have a rockin' good time. 

Biochar's picture

had a few, hope my math isn't off

1600 to 1800 gold (Turd's guess):

GLD gain of 12.5%, DGP gain of 25%

40-50 silver in the same time frame (my personal guess):

SLV gain of 25%, AGQ gain of 50%

bbdgoco's picture

lol GoodDoctor

If he does, I'll guard his car.

Blight Master's picture

Coin shows

Got a local coin show this weekend to hopefully do some stacking. To those new to stacking phyzz ask your LCS about coin shows and clubs. Why pay a 4.95 Premium plus postage or tax over spot when there's hundreds of other people that have been stacking longer than most of us in our own neighborhoods that just need to cash in a little metal to pay bills. I usually always manage to stack a good bit under spot at shows and can find cool numismatic stuff at spot now that silver is so high. Best of all, no paper trails, and you build a good relationship with people of similar interests that will buy your PM's at or just under spot should you ever get tight and need some FRN's to pay the bills. The old timers can give you some amazing perspectives on the state of the PM's market through the last century as well.

lostinspace's picture

CPL end of the Month SHTF

Anyone else watching CPL on the Paul Ryan thread at ZH???  Hopefully he is just more despondent than usual, and loaded up on scotch and downers.  Hopefully it's just noise, but it sounds like anon et al are planning something big for the end of the month... keep your powder dry.  Please check out the conspiracy theory section of the forums for more info.... as Zero Hedge is down for scheduled maintenance???  ​Granted I've only been a ZHer for a year, but shit is starting to get strange...

CPL has his cards on the table. If nothing happens by the end of the month, I guess we all know he is full of shit.  If his paranoid rantings have even a shred of truth... buckle up.

Hugh needs a drink

Strongsidejedi's picture

Back at Hugh (re: CPL)

Hugh, ZH is down for me.  What was being said?

ActionFive's picture

Friday afternoon decision

The PM markets are so manipulated that there seems to be no consensus as to Sunday nights outcome from Fridays after hours news release of debt talks collapsing.

The old Greek formula was no bailout/debt funding as positive for PMs. Bailouts were schemed as risk on, and bad for PMs.

The Greek formula says PMs will go up without a resolution.

Gut says they will use risk off scheme to hit PMs before OPEX.

ActionFive's picture

Friday afternoon decision

Sorry

Ruffian's picture

It's back up. 

Oh wait its back up

We'll be going down some time between 12:30 and 1:00 Eastern for a much needed update. Thanks!

ginger's picture

Can't sleep. Either I am

Can't sleep.

Either I am delirious from lack of sleep .....or else I need to take up drinking to understand this particular blog posting and ensuing comments. indecision

lol. Y'all ain't made no sense whatsoever to me through this thread so far.

...Is it always this scary in here late at night?  :D

uh. good night. ...going to get my blankey again now.

TheGoodDoctor's picture

ZH seems to be F'ed at

ZH seems to be F'ed at this point. Bad update?

admin's picture

I wouldn't worry about it, ZH

I wouldn't worry about it, ZH will be back up soon enough.  As much as updates can be planned, sometimes there are unexpected results when the switches get flipped.  Running an update around this time is the best decision, because if things go awry it shouldn't impact many.  Most people (in the US) should be sleeping now.  :-)

raulv's picture

The only thing I'm afraid of

The only thing I'm afraid of is that amost every time Turd leaves, it seems that Blythe knows he's gone and sends a monkey to kick PM ass as hard as she cans :/

Hope Turd arrives before any hard ass kicking we might receive (or not) by sunday evening

Monedas's picture

Oslo blast provides cover for "Utopya" mop up !

You have to marvel at the perps plan for imagination, cunning and logistics ! This wasn't just another Muslim suicide bombing in a marketplace ! Right or wrong....the multi-cultural fuck fest at the "Utopya" Labour Youth Camp experienced a mass coitus interuptus ! Monedas 2011 Comedy is good medicine for bad moments !

zilverreiger's picture

Its not an utopia, it works

Its not an utopia, it works very well as long as theres oil/money. Or third world to exploit.

its european centre left, something you dont have in america, it's like the left wing of the democrats and republicans, for the average joe its nice.

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