Another Winner!

I've got the re-crossing of $40 silver at about 3:09 EDT last night. Someone just won another autographed yellow hat. But who? I have no idea, frankly. I know someone out there in TurdLand has a spreadsheet of all the picks. Please post the winner in the comments section of this blog.

Our precious precious metals are sure looking fine this morning. Copper, crude and the grains are all down so it is clear that the world is looking at the PMs as safe haven plays...which they are. It's nice, too, to see that silver has shrugged off the "commodity" tag and is soaring alongside gold. Look for this to continue.

Now that silver is back above $40, look for the big money that left the pit back in May to come pouring back in. Not right away but in stages. IF silver can hold its position today and close above $40, the stages will be set for a run toward 42-42.50. It may briefly pause there before continuing higher. A close through $43 will force more dollars off of the sidelines and back into silver. Like April, we will likely see an accelerating move toward 48 and even 50. Do not think for a minute that the Forces of Darkness won't try everything in their power to paint a double-top at/near $50. Be very careful as price approaches that level. However, that's a topic for another day. For today, just enjoy the fact that silver is back above $40 and looks poised to mount another run toward 50 and...eventually...beyond.

paper_7-18amgold4.jpgpaper_7-18amsilv.jpg

Of course, gold looks fabulous, too. Hanging in there just above $1600 as I type. The simple fact that raiding and profit-taking at the psychologically significant sixteen hundred level hasn't occurred is interesting. If gold stays above 1600 for another hour or so, you may see buyers gain confidence that a quick drop will not be forthcoming. IF this happens, gold should skip away toward 1610. In either event, this is big news! Gold above 1600 is headline-grabbing material and it is sure to attract attention. It will help provide bids for the miners and it will provide spillover strength into the silver pit. A virtuous cycle, so to speak. Let's watch and see.

paper_7-18amsilv4.jpgpaper_7-18amgold.jpg

Have a great day. Rejoice and be happy. We are winning! TF

153 Comments

Silver2500's picture

First!!!

First!!!

TPaine's picture

Now you done done it,

Now you done done it, Turd...  Queue raid in 3... 2...

Dr Jerome's picture

Great Video Saturday

Looks like your prediction for Sunday night futures fun was spot on. It will be interesting to see the COT report next weekend.

Loved the video. just found it this morning. 

SilverTree's picture

Winning

Charlie_Sheen_Winning_Recipes_march10new

Old Major's picture

50 here we come! About to break FREE!

http://rebecca88.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/breaking-free.jpg

Rusty Gates's picture

@ silvertree

Nice pic, like his style of winning... booze, smoke, & coke shaker!

speconomist's picture

I think I predicted $40 at

I think I predicted $40 at some point in July (under the nickname Dani), I'll look for that spreadsheet. The email I used for that comment and the one used for registering this account is the same.

Also, please everybody be careful with your longs on Thursday & Friday as the debt ceiling is raised.

FalseParadigm's picture

I was wrong

Hey I was wrong.  I'm man enough to admit when I am.

So here's the question I have for where gold and silver go when news on the debt ceiling deal breaks.

Scenario #1

The house and senate agree on a deal that proposes "significant" spending cuts over 10 years (4+ trillion).  Money flows into treasuries on the "sign" that the US government is "serious" on reducing its deficits.  Conclusion: Short-term negative for PMs (and the dip I originally predicted)

Scenario #2

Congress agrees on a deal that proposes very small cuts (or none at all) which prompts investors to lose even MORE confidence in US debt and to come to the conclusion that Washington is not serious about reducing its deficits.  Money continues to flow into PMs and we will likely NEVER again see a significant dip in PMs as they are now the last and ONLY safe haven.

Scenario #3

Congress fails to reach an agreement.  August 2nd quickly approaches and either one of two things happens.  Reid and McConnell get Congress to pass their proposal last second giving BHO full authority to raise the debt limit himself.  This again signals to investors that US debt is junk and PMs are the only way to go.  OR Congress can't reach any type of agreement and BHO uses an executive order to raise the debt ceiling with no cuts AND increased revenues again signalling that US debt is junk.

I'm going to be watching PM movement very carefully following the news of a deal.  A sell off will signal that we should have cash at the ready to buy physical and miners at a discount.  Strength signals all aboard.

Thoughts?

 

Avocado Lover's picture

Dec $40 Call Options

Just got back from breakfast here in Cali and picked up a couple of Dec $40 Calls for $4.00 !!!

Hope silver can get to mid $40s.  Good luck everyone !

¤'s picture

Thanks TF

Another  solid analysis and confirms what I wrote in my last post. I'm glad my thinking on the subject is pretty much inline with yours at the moment.

Mine is more of a trend/guess where yours is TA savvy and the recognition of what the situation is and where this all ends up and how it's going to get there. The only part I have to get good at is selling and getting out when it's obvious.  I'm working on it and your helping us all on a daily basis. Thanks.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

IMO, one bad political quote or news event about the debt ceiling crisis and anything in the PM's and POSX is possible. I think were real close that point. I see on ZH they have a article about the EU situation and SocGen saying pretty much the same thing I've been mentioning for awhile. The unscripted, stressed out moment where someone screws up, says the wrong thing or makes the wrong move and then the domino's start. There is no way this is going to go according to the EE plan 100% of the way. At some point they misstep.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On another note, the silence from the U.S. politicians is deafening and a bit ominous. They must have been crafting some type of deal over the weekend.

There is no reason for me to believe that they will do nothing more then kick the can down the road again. This deal they come up with will nauseate everyone and it will be weak and cowardly and both will take credit for it and then it's immediately onto the pre-election blaming/bashing and campaign season.

Gee, I can hardly wait until  another 16 month Presidential campaign starts with O'Bummer in it.  (sarcasm> off)

sevin's picture

I was thinking about the

I was thinking about the yellow hat. Since the competition was on the old site and besides the few whom we all know, there are a lot of users who have different names from before. Here is the link to the final results. It looks like Dani won with a date of 7/3/2011 at 2:37a.m. and Michiel got second with a date of 8/2/2011 at 10:00 pm. Both were 15 days apart. Here is link to final guesses. Thanks to H(Original):

https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=teBM6tFpk1H2pDp3CVaZ9ZA&authkey=CLSs79gJ#gid=0

Here is the post from turd with the final guesses:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/empty-suits.html

Here is the contest post from turd:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/really-good-day.html

speconomist's picture

I won??? Haha, I just posted

@sevin: Thanks for providing the links.

I won??? Haha, I just posted a date less bullish than Turd's predictions, but never imagined I'd be the one with the closest date.

As I said in this entry of the blog some minutes ago the email I used for that comment and the one used for registering this account is the same. I think Turd or someone else may be able to verify it.

I will post picture with the hat for you all once I get it. wink

ChicksDigIt's picture

HKMEx Launches Silver Futures

Maybe the move above $40 is thanks to the announcement HKMEx is launching silver futures this Friday?
 

hkmerc.jpg

 

 

Wingy's picture

Dow is getting hammered

As we , err, type the DOW is getting it's a$$ kicked. Down 149.5 at 11:00am. Safe haven? HA!

First post.

Jimbio's picture

Speconomist, Its pretty easy

Edit: i cant read.

Economical Disaster's picture

DEAL or No Deal?

MrSteed's picture

Wow.  Looks like yellow and

Wow.  Looks like yellow and white got another kick up!

Monedas's picture

Monedas spake.....

.......and the $1600/$40 glass cieling was penetrated ! Traders and Hoarders rejoice !  Adm. Mullen is coordinating with Chinese to take down Iran ! When the smoke clears.......we dump the Iro-Negrish president ! Monedas 2011 A hat for your cat !

ScottJ's picture

People Get Ready

tyberious's picture

Iro-Negrish

I thought we have concluded that is doesn't matter who is president, the outcomes will be the same! Don't be confused!

Vypuero's picture

silver more than half way to $41

Trading at like $40.6 to $40.7

choke on paper's picture

positions

turd I don't see you talking about your positions anymore.

have you stopped that for legal reason.

Juan Moment's picture

Love your optimism Turd, its

Love your optimism Turd, its contagious. yes

Re the Silver $40 competition, I just checked the spreadsheet and my guess

My tea leaves tell me that silver will hit the $40 mark on 25th July at around 12:08 pm.

is not listed (post 442 of 444 on A Really Good Day post). I am not sure how many other punters didn't make it on the linked spreadsheet, but it sure doesn't seem to be up to date.

iamse7en's picture

Irrational exuberance

Remember, the banking cartel still has much power. Be cautious. But it looks like this will be another mini bull run, until the cartel produces another event to end it. Manipulation, but not total control. They can't stop every Asian from buying PMs. I just wonder when they will make holding bullion illegal. It is coming.

Jdawg's picture

Yes - People Get Ready

You be get ready

pipewerkz's picture

1600 bitches

Bring the gold:

tmosley's picture

Well, I will admit that I was

Well, I will admit that I was hoping to never see the spot price rise again.  A rising spot price makes it possible for the COMEX to survive, meaning no industrial panic, meaning no super-rise, and likely no parity with gold.

That said, silver hasn't gone parabolic against gold (a natural reaction to real supply demand fundamentals) means that the COMEX isn't out of critical yet.  The collapse may yet precede the fiat craptastrophe that's coming.

turnoffthewater's picture

how did it start

The awakening to PM's is starting to happen as more and more people understand. An interesting video series

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/11.10/looting.html

Pass it on if you agree

speconomist's picture

@Juan Moment: Sorry mate, but

@Juan Moment:

Sorry mate, but I was re-reading Turd's post about the contest (last sentence):

Contest closes when I start a new thread tomorrow morning. Good luck!!!

And Turd posted the next day at 9:38 AM, which is 5 minutes before your post.

If it's any consolation for you I re-promise uploading picture of myself with the hat, and in addition will set it as my own avatar. smiley

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