A Big Week Ahead

Next week is shaping up to be significant for the short term charts. Can gold get through 1555 and break out of its summer range? Can silver break 37 and then 37.50 and head off to tackle the last line of EE defense at 39.50? Can crude build a new base above 96 and get ready to make a move at 101? I suspect we'll have most of our answers by next Friday.

Here are you charts:

paper_7-9silv2.jpgpaper_7-9silv8.jpg

paper_7-9gold.jpg

paper_7-9crude.jpgpaper_7-9pig.jpg

Here are a few things to help you kill some time as we wait for tomorrow at 6:00 EDT. First, I don't know how many of you saw this is the comments of yesterday's blog but this is simply fantastic:

paper_turd-people.jpg

Jim Willie has written a very interesting piece. Please take time to read it.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/jul082011.html

Trader Dan doesn't post as often as he used to but you need to keep checking his site or your liable to miss some very important information:

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/07/gold-chart-update-and-comments.html

I found this link on Drudge. It's 5-6 minutes of silliness. By the way, there was some political "debate" in the comments yesterday. I hope that, by now, we all understand that it is both parties --- The Republocrats --- that have gotten us into this mess. Blaming one over the other is a complete waste of time.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000032061

This article needs no introduction. I think you can draw your own conclusions:

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/India-to-import-350-tons-of-gold-1200-tons-of-silver-40594-3-1.html

Lastly, you know how much I like patterns so you shouldn't be surprised that this got my attention:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-comparing-2007-topping-pattern-now

That's it for now. Have a great weekend!! TF

107 Comments

tpbeta's picture

first?

never done that before. be interesting to see if silver can surge without QE backing it up. that would be very bullish.

Vernon Wormer's picture

Great work Turd. Keep it up.

Great work Turd. Keep it up.

s1lentslayer's picture

Check out the gold and silver

Check out the gold and silver charts a few paragraphs down on this article:
http://howestreet.com/2011/07/gold-silver-time-buy/

In summary, with two months of summer to go, be patient before jumping in now.

cib1980's picture

what's goin on at 6pm EDT

what's goin on at 6pm EDT tomorrow?

ChicksDigIt's picture

The Secret of OZ

Just came across The Secret of Oz...which is blowing my mind currently.
Is it possible a return to a gold only standard is the BANKSTERS plan!?!
This has to be the best documentary of American monetary history ive ever read/seen.

The Secret of OZ

SilverTree's picture

They are all big weeks. Don’t

They are all big weeks. Don’t stop believing.

BillAuAg's picture

 cib1980, Globex market in

cib1980,

Globex market in PMs opens for active trading every Sunday afternoon
murphy's picture

Re Shanghai Exchange

The talk has been that the new exchange will bring more competition to the other exchanges. Shouldn't we believe that the central bankers in China also have a vested interest in keeping PM's down as well? Haven't they made it easy for their population to buy physical gold and silver? Wouldn't they want the metals prices to stay down in order for a billion people to continue to buy on  their $4000 a year salaries? Just like the Chinese Central banks have been buying metals directly from the miners or when they do buy from the market they don't announce it until years later.

American Oligarch's picture

9th :-)!!!

Ninth wow great!!, oh wait that's crap isn't it.

Cleburne61's picture

Silver COT is down to 110,000

Silver COT is down to 110,000 contracts.  This is ridiculously low.  What's impressive is how silver has rallied roughly 9% this past week while the COT is virtually nothing, AND forced short covering the entire way up.

The only thing that causes concern is the 900 shorts added by commercials.  I need to read Ted Butler to find out if these are "the raptors" as Ted calls them, or the "big four", because depending on who was doing it, it makes a big difference.

Gold?!  Holy cow the commercials and small specs covered another 1 MILLION paper oz of shorts last week!?  Does it sound as if they're expecting gold to fall very much in the near future?

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

I_ate_the_crow's picture

The Secret of Oz

There are different versions of the Secret of Oz, and if I'm not mistaken, this is the most up to date version:

Monedas's picture

Rick Santelli I love you !

Monedas is considering using the word "Wop" with a little less frecuency ! Of course it's been years since I used it as a perjorative taunt in grade school ! My best friend was one ! As a matter of fact, he changed his name  ! I now taunt him, you changed your name and now it's cool to be Italian ! Good market timing ! I told him I love Santelli and Bartiromo ! All he could mutter was, "I hear she's got a big butt !". Life is good when you're Monedas 2011 BTW Turd, don't wait for Ag $40 !

JoeyJoeJoe's picture

Thanks for the post Turd

... and stack it ^
gdogus's picture

Who owns the gold?

If history is any guide, I'm pretty sure TPTB know that the only way to bring back confidence to the masses after their fiat currency has imploded is to bring out a commodities based currency.  Hmmmm, funny that - the elite seem to already own most the gold....  So, yes.  A gold backed system is what we are heading for.

Now SILVER on the other hand.  Silver is not in their plans and is quite pesky and must be suppressed at all cost, lest we figure out we can save ourselves with it.

SilverWealth's picture

Norcini and timing

"the all important 1550 in Gold holds the key to its fortunes", says Norcini, or paraphrasing. I disagree. Anyone consistently buying weakness on his chart in Gold and selling into strength would have continually made profitable trades without all the drama,emotion and 'need' for certain levels to prove themselves and behave the way one wants them to behave.  The opportunity cost for those in the gold community who wait for the perfect chart in Gold is huge. Same for Silver. In the meantime, guessing which exogenous factor be it political or economic will cause the chart to do whatever it will do in the future, however much fun it is in the guessing and however addictive that may be,  is also the way to madness in my opinion. I am sure the good majority of traders would disagree with this opinion.

If I am in Rome and I am waiting to go to Paris but someone offers me the opportunity to go to Venice first on vacation and from there maybe I go to Paris, what am I going to do? Especially if Rome is the pits, its hot and expensive and no fun. The fearful ones argue "well if you set out for Venice you might end up in Sicily instead, be careful, you might get kidnapped!". True. That is always a possibility. But if I then look at my traveling chart and note the good likelihood of getting to Venice everytime Rome gets discounted then some of that fear is allayed. Then if I know that I am keeping good money as insurance in case I set out North but end up in Naples instead, more fear is accomodated.

It seems the problem is the traveler who demands to go to Paris on his time schedule with a one-way ticket.  The problem is not the chart or the economy or the politics. The problem is the psychology of that trader imo.

Just throwing it out there. I'm sure this should attract dozens of detractors but I wanted to say it. Same thing applies to oil, to corn, etc.

ScottJ's picture

It always feels like next

It always feels like next week....

But I suspect in 14 days there will be a vastly different overtone amongst the blog.  Sure, metals and miners may be taking off... but where there is fortune there is despair.

In today's society, it is impossible to prepare accordingly, because if there is tyranny, then there shall be no opportunity for you no matter how much you prepare.

Spread the Ron Paul Revolution....
End the Fed...

Gold 2000$ by end of 2011, Silver $120 by end of 2011.... but remember this is only a representation of the death of the dollar (physical gold and silver are not doing anything they haven't done in the past thousands of years... well maybe silver (technology)).... it is the currency they are priced in that is faltering.

SilverWealth's picture

the train to Paris

I forgot to add as well that those waiting only for the train to Paris and climbing onboard as that train appears to confirm its destination might realize two things- 1. the train has already come hundreds of miles North and 2. Say the train crosses the border into France but then 'unexpectedly' runs right off the tracks and must reverse,reset and dump passengers out at that border? and god forbid that number 3 happens, 3. conductors and drivers of the train to Paris are actually banksters who love to play with the transmission of the train, dump passengers out on the way and steal their luggage.

The real pressing question for people l is what if the government pursues confiscation of Gold and Silver, high taxes on it and prison terms for those in possession. Jim Rickards in his interview today seems to indicate that this is the course they will take.

Free Citizen's picture

The whole world will have to selloff..

The whole world will have to selloff on Monday and Tuesday, including commodities and stocks, or Euro gold and pound gold will make new highs. They will not go sideways and if they make new highs dollar gold will not be far behind.  A big week indeed

ScottJ's picture

Bravo Silverwealth

Excellent Analogy, very well said.

Warren Peace's picture

Watch the shares

The shares have led the way up on this rally, which is a really good sign. We can predict an EE attack by watching the behavior of the shares. If the shares are down 2-3% any day next week while the PMs are steady to up, this is the signal to all the EE tag a-shorts to pile in for an attack the next day. If that happens, we will head back towards the lower end of the trade range. If the shares continue to lead next week,  then we will break through the upper trend line. After that we can further watch the shares to telegraph any attempted capping action by the EE. Just remember, the signal is when the PMs are steady to up, and you look at a basket of the shares, and they are down 2-3% average. When you see that...... run..... and go flat paper trades. Reload on the next day that the shares are noticeably outperforming the PMs. And always keep a substantial amount of physical, cause no one knows when this suckers going to crack up.

silverwood's picture

Read this article!

The Secret of OZ

What we need to have for honest money to return is what our constitution call for, a bi-metallic system. I don't agree with Bill's idea that we can issue paper money by politicians, a bimetallic standard is the discipline that they need to control their reckless spending habits.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/tlaga011902.html

Gramp's picture

Inflation? Nahh...

Vypuero's picture

Norcini

All Dan is saying is that this is a point at which it may continue to go up, not how to trade it.  So for example, if you sell a strong position that does not go back down, you will miss an upside.  It could be a good spot to put in a stop, preserving your profit if it drops, while retaining the ability to gain if it does, in fact, break through.  He is not saying "buy gold if it goes past 1550"

L13's picture

Mr Armstrong says.......

We are due for a correction – It’s Just Time. The months ahead are September and November in particular for turning points. What we have to pay close attention to is the “hype” that comes out. If the Investment Bankers are looking to force a liquidation to make a bang-up trade for the year since things have been quiet, the news will be spun to support their agenda. This is part of the game. When they wanted all the little guys in for 1980, they made the Hunts a household name. That was the setup. The little guy buys thinking he is running with the big dogs. The real big dogs stay well hidden in the bushes and will NEVER step into the limelight.
The week before Labor Day (last week of August) may become the key week where a change in trend develops thereafter. Keep in mind, cyclically, most of the biggest periods of volatility take place rightafter Labor Day. Paulson – you are dancing with the devil. Watch your ass!
So for now, pay attention. The dogs are getting hungry and they have had a quiet year so far. The second half of the year is shaping up for a return to volatility. Of course they will yell and scream at this writing. On the one hand they claim I manipulated the WORLD economy because I had too many “big”clients. On the other, they claim because of their own half-baked allegations, I am not credible whenever I write about THEM. It seems they want it both ways. As Cicero always said, when you can’t respond to the argument, attack the speaker. The fact that they will attack me personally DEMONSTRATES that they have no response to my observations.
 
 
33 and a turd's picture

China Inflation

Bit of inflation in China apparently.

From zerohedge:

It had been widely expected that Chinese CPI would come in smoldering in June, with some predicting a print of 6% or just over. Few, however, expected 6.4%, a blistering spike compared to May's 5.5%, which is the highest inflation recorded in China in 3 years, and depending on how one looks at GDP (and the government's way is certainly modestly flawed to say the least), China may well be approaching the revolutionary point where real interest rates turn negative, and purchasing gold becomes a costless opportunity, which in turn would send the price the yellow metal well north of $2,000.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinese-inflation-explodes-hits-3-year-high-64-june

RedRover's picture

July is historically a month of contraction

July is historically a month of contraction.
 

SilverWealth's picture

Vyp

My point is that I believe most in the gold community will not be able to time their way thru this gold bull. The subliminals I read in Norcini and in many of the timers and traders suggest the opposite. We have just had a 65pt. rally in Gold over the last week from a point where most in the community were either dumping their gold and silver stocks, were depressed or were resigned to the summer doledrums.  If you reread Norcini's posts from July 1st and late June you will quickly sense this hesitation and despair. But there was great opportunity in that despair and that emotion. 

beinki's picture

Thanks everyone

I didn't know my Turd Ferguson PEOPLE cover would be such a hit. I guess I'll have to come up with some new ideas.

beinki's picture

The secret of OZ-History is repeating itself

     

Monedas's picture

That's why there was no date on the cover !

I was seriously considering buying a copy of that worthless rag to see if one of my posts made the cut ! Monedas 2011 is pipple too !

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