It's Tuesday?

I don't know about you but I'm having real trouble with this being Tuesday. These Monday holidays always mess me up.

I've received several emails enquiring about the end of the summer doldrums. "How will we know?, they ask. "When will it be safe to get back in the water?", they want to know. Frankly, the end will start like today. A massive, short-covering spike on no real news that catches everyone off guard.

Could today be the end? I doubt it. If it were a month from now or if we were closer to doing some serious, bullish technical damage to the shorts, I'd be more inclined to believe it. For now, just enjoy seeing all of the green. Here are charts of the Big Three. Crude is the main one to watch today as a close back above $96 would make me very nervous if I was short and crude moving back toward triple digits will provided added strength to the PM bid later this week.

paper_7-5amcrude.jpg

paper_7-5amgold.jpgpaper_7-5amsilv.jpg

PLEASE take time to read this today, too. I don't know who this author is. I've never met or corresponded with him. However, not only does he have a 100% spot-on take on the Evil Empire and all its ugliness, he's 100% correct on the fraud that is the financial planning industry, too. Yes, there are good investment advisors out there but they are very few are far between. If you are currently working with one and he/she is advising you to "diversify" and "asset allocate" to "manage risk", while at the same time disparaging gold, silver and hard assets, RUN DON'T WALK out of this person's office.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/surprising-truth-about-volatility-gold-silver-mining-stocks

I have lasts of 1510, 34.97 and 96.48. A nice way to start the week. More later. TF

120 Comments

SilverTree's picture

Up-Up-Up!

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Strongsidejedi's picture

excellent comments

Glad to see the TF back posting on this blog.

I agree regarding the price action of gold and silver in the short term, and I am also pleased to see gold holding the $1500 line and silver the $35 line.

People need to get used to this pricing level before we can get an acceleration into higher pricing ranges.

TF, I appreciate your comments about the financial planning industry.  I am seeing alot of propaganda rolling out of that industry right now.  They are trying to construct various names for it, but it always looks pyramidal to me.

Any other traders monitoring the GLD and SLV options contracts?

It appears that some 401k's do not allow options on futures contracts.  They only allow options on ETF's and other stocks.

Has anyone found a mechanism to buy futures in a 401K that is not typically self-managed?

The only answer I seem to find is the PIMCO commodities fund, but I can not identify the asset allocation in that PIMCO fund either.

SilverWealth's picture

Norcini whipsaw

I am selling some gold,silver,grains,corn,miners now to anyone who is still waiting for 'relative strength'. What's down shall be up, what's up shall be down. Its fear which allows bounces to happen and despair and frustration.  The despair and frustration last week was palpable. Yes it could have gone down further today. And yes it still can but to me that is not the point. Gold has just bounced 35 points off its last lows. To me its all about money management. I ain't ever going to time this thing well and as the volatility gets more and more crazy over the next years I don't think many will.

Natural gas is selling nicely after gapping up. Its on sale again. The chart doesn't look too good. Time to buy.

Seacap81's picture

Silver

Silver's seasonal chart has silver bottoming the last week in June.  And if last fall is repeated which I suspect it will, we all should enjoy riding the silver rocket ship from now till the end of December.   I urge everyone to get physical at these prices while they last.......don't be the one saying in October, "damn, I knew it.....why didn't I buy silver at 35 bucks during the summer doldrums."

Chinese Proverb:  Man who has silver coins never go hungry.  Man who has gold coins has many friends.  Man who holds paper needs to wipe ass.

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_silber.html

Warren Peace's picture

Gold looking good by this

Gold looking good by this chart from TD.

BTW, anyone see the story about federal RICO suits against the EE JP Morgue, and HSBC?

http://www.examiner.com/precious-metals-in-national/rico-suits-against-two-banks-metals-to-soar-review

I Thought these suits were kind of old news... from November 2010?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rico-suit-filed-against-hsbc-and-jpmorgan-silver-market-manipulation

Is there new developments in this case, or are these new suits?

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ScottJ's picture

New highs in gold coming by

New highs in gold coming by end of July on US dollar lows as the political spectacle of the raising the debt ceiling stops becoming theory, instead law.  Also, Alex Jones is calling for ground troops in Libya within the next several weeks, but he cited Debka for several of his points, so we will have to see...

http://www.infowars.com/report-ground-invasion-of-libya-within-two-weeks/

They knocked down crude oil to make room for a new invasion in the middle east and to neutralize inflation fears going into the debt ceiling "decision" (it has all been orchestrated already).

The commercial shorts are covering....

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07/stunning-plunge-in-comex-commercial-gold-net-short-futures.html

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Watch out for a accelerated inflation once the debt ceiling is digested... as the inflation trade will be what everyone is talking about for the next year and a half as the Federal Reserve Note crumbles....

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As for the rest of the day...

Remember that gold has never closed above 2% on a day, and at 1512 it was up something like 1.99%... so this is probably all we have for the day... unless history was about to change, but don't count on that (just yet).

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But let us not forget where we have come in the last 40 years....

Northern Border's picture

Its always safe in the water when your stacking physical

Can you believe that I actually was able to convince 3 more people in this crowd over the weekend to start stacking physical?

http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/photo.php?fbid=2040974756752&set=a.1251816108279.37320.1615815065&type=1&theater

http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/photo.php?fbid=2040974756752&set=a.1251816108279.37320.1615815065&type=1&theater

I am hoping those links work.  Could not figure out how to upload the files but regardless, I got 3 more people into the life boat over the long holiday weekend!

NB

SilverWealth's picture

ScottJ

Those are great takes my friend. Good insights imo. Stay strong.

SilverWealth's picture

agree Turd

Financial advisors are lazy cons. A rung in Hell should be reserved for them.

bullwhip29's picture

$1515 gold

I think TF is right and this may only be a short term knee jerk reaction to the craziness we witnessed late last week. Basically we're back to where gold was at on Wednesday before the bottom fell out on Thurs/Fri. For now, it doesn't look like we get back to $1515+ (but we got pretty close).

I'm looking for the EE to lay everyone out once again maybe later today or overnight and push prices well below $1500.  Lord knows they wouldn't want this rally to gather any steam, so extinguishing this fire ASAP makes perfect sense. What really spooks me is that we are only a matter of weeks into this blatant (not to mention systematic and calculated) attempt by TPTB to kill commodities and the damage done already is significant.  Remember, the "blatant, systematic and calculated" attempt by the TPTB to keep this rigged,  stock market ponzi scheme from imploding is now into it's third year (and counting). I think we are in unprecented territory and anything and everything (whether legal or not) is possible. Anyone that actually believed we'd be standing here today talking about the possibility of the S&P going to new highs again is simply a liar.

WineGuy's picture

I don't get it?

Folks, if you have some excess fiat laying around by all means purchase some physical. Trying to time the lows is a fools game in my opinion. When the proverbial launch happens you won't be able to get any physical! GLTA

ScottJ's picture

Bullwhip, the whole time I

Bullwhip, the whole time I have been calling for the equity markets to keep rising against "conventional will."  The stock market is one of the only things left for the manipulators to point to that is "growing."  As long as they are spewing that there will be a recovery. The stock market will not be deflating, as the manipulators are careful not to agitate the sleeping masses until they are ready to seize the power the masses willingly give up (through fear).

Anyone that actually believed we'd be standing here today talking about the possibility of the S&P going to new highs again is simply a liar.

If you were talking about real gains to new highs, then yes I would agree with you.  But we are dealing with currency devaluation driving the stock market. The result is the equity markets are all about to soar too nominal highs (non-inflation adjusted).  The day-to-day news  may be the self-justifying reasons the market is moving the way it is, but the market is all carefully orchestrated to fit the needs of the day-to-day agenda/double speak that TPTB wish to overwhelm the masses with.  The algorithms are in firm control, not you or me or even the hedgies (in the long run).

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Compare these two graphs too understand that the stock market is nothing but a correlation to the Eur/Usd with higher volatility.

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This is what I expect to happen going into end of 2012 for the stock market as hyperinflation becomes a reality for the Federal Reserve Note....

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Being short is a very scary thing.....

SilverTree's picture

90% Junk!

Eric Original's picture

Financial Planning

I thought about getting certified for financial planning years ago.  I looked at the curriculum for the course, and I looked at the general "party line" that they always feed people, and I looked at the inherent conflicts in how I would get paid, and I walked away from the whole thing.

Citizen Doctor's picture

JS Kim of SmartKnowledgeU

The author of the Zero Hedge article is JS Kim of SmartKnowledgeU. He has a YouTube channel worth following. I learned a lot from his in-depth look at investor psychology, How Ideological Subversion of the Retail Investor Enables Financial Fraud, based on ex-KGB psychological warfare expert Yuri Bezmenov's revelations.

SilverWealth's picture

bullwhip

Don't agree necessarily. Morris Hubbart was buying the S&P the Friday before last Friday heavily. I don't think he would mind my saying.  It was on sale. He's mostly out now but depending on the style, some good traders will enjoy 'weakness'.

Mickey's picture

Buy and hold

unless you have nerves of steel and extraordinary trading skills , you cannot convince me that trading has been better than buy and hold the past 10 years for silver and gold. True--you have to live thru some sell offs that twist the stomach, but just look at the charts of silver and gold vs dollar and spx

if invested in spx since beginning of 2000, you are down some 15% and thus with 24% dollar decline you are yada yada  behind a whole lot in purchasing power--vs what a 7 fold increase in silver and 6 fold in gold?

Now, someone like Turd who understands immediately what to do when he sees it and has the nerves of steel I would think is pretty well suited to trading.

Having said this, Sinclairs idea of taking a little off the table when the PMs have enjoyed a run up is nice--but what if it continues to go up?

Same thing with his buy  after a sell off. I know it works. But do I personally have the skill set and nerves to pull triggers?

Nope.

Buy and  hold, go play golf or whatever you do for recreation. If our global elected leaders ever actually fix the problems then sell PM.

bern's picture

Warren Peace - I looked

Warren Peace - I looked around a bit and as far as I can tell, there was only one lawsuit pending and there hasn't been any news published about it since Nov. 2010.  These are the people bringing the suit:

http://www.hbsslaw.com/cases-and-investigations/jp-morgan-silver-futures

The same law firm is also investigating the warehouse manipulation story for a possible suit:

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/JFT/key-developments/article/2349518

Darth Smoker's picture

Fractional Rounds!

¤'s picture

I think the end of this

I think the end of this bearish gold/silver consolidation happens sporadically as the Euro crisis morphs into a actual dollar crisis and who knows what else type of crisis that just jacks the currencies and market sentiment one way and then another and so on.

The U.S. debt ceiling drama hasn't really even started yet so "the end" will come in bits and squirts and then "ZOOM!" upwards at some point. Sure, we'll get hammered backwards here and there as desperation breeds more EE attacks. At some point they won't be able to hold it all in place and the correction in PM's/and miner stocks happens. The short covering could be so fast that it trips a breaker somewhere and they halt trading because of it. I don't know the mechanics of how this all works but it does seem that market start up delays and trading halts or irregularities seem to happen pretty often for really lame reasons.

You see those types of articles brought up on ZeroHedge a lot so it would seem those things will happen more often as they start to lose control of the market.

That's just my guess and my opinion is that we are in uncharted territory in our economic history and the markets and PM's are not going to behave in a predictable seasonal market pattern. This debt ceiling vote,  the Euro and all the other important stressful things going on in the world almost gaurantee that PM's are disorderly to the upside. (that's a shout out to XTY who I haven't seen on here in a long time)  :-)

I hope when all hell breaks loose in the PM's that all of us are positioned and timely in our decisions and we benefit greatly from our foresight and guts.

This PM market and the times we live in have definitely required all of us on this web site to  have  guts and wisdom. Hopefully the timing is just right for all of us when "it" happens.

FogHorn LegHorn's picture

JS Kim Gets it.

JS Kim Smartknoledgeu has been the source of my recent posts on Comex rules,allowing for futures contract settlement via efp and efs verses physical delivery. His work has been available on ZH ,Harvey Organ,Gata, Seeking Alpha has a large sellection of contributions, Max Kieser interviewed him recently on settling physical delivery using paper.He and his staff have done excellent, eye opening work, exposing Comex, Bullion Banker machinations.I think He's one credible, forward thinking analyst.Thanks for linking his stuff, TF.

bullwhip29's picture

@ ScottJ

ScottJ:

After looking at the chart of the Israeli stock market/CPI, I understand where you are coming from. My point was that TPTB may do anything and everything in it's power to make sure the chart of the CPI doesn't look like this. After 9/11 and other similar events, this is a walk in the park. If you firmly believe this market is being propped up, then what's to stop TPTB from applying a little E.O. 6102-ish type of force across the entire commodity complex? Not only are the inmates running the asylum right now, they are also making up and enforcing the rules (as they see fit).

So, I guess double down on internet stocks...get rid of everything else?

beinki's picture

I thought silver's rise today was because of my new video

Bay's picture

Eric (Original) this one's for You

The Crisis We Should Be Panicking About: Bacon Prices

 
Pork bellies and hogs are topic for discussion by Eric, but don't totally laugh this one off. (Eric is sitting on a gold mine )  smiley

The global debt crisis has sparked riots in Greece and elsewhere in Europe, but while you were watching the mayhem on TV, you might not have noticed that there’s a riot brewing at your kitchen table.

Bacon prices are expected to soar this summer — just in time for peak BLT (bacon lettuce and tomato sandwich) season. BLT season goes into full swing in July across much of the country as tomatoes start to ripen and, if you’re like Jason Perlow, who writes the “Off the Broiler” blog, by August, BLT’s will have become “major meals” instead of just a quick lunch.

Source: cnbc.com

murphy's picture

JS Kim

Very interesting that you just posted this. I have been subscribing to his CIO newsletter for over two years, very successfully.

FWIW. At the beginning of this year he moved his company to Singapore. After that I had  issues with ATT who were blocking his emails supposedly due to spam issues, which he does not send. BTW, ATT was the only ISP in the world he was having issues with. We rectified the issue by early February.

Just today I learned that they are once again blocking Smartknowledgeu.com domain from sending and receiving. After a lengthy customer service call I was told that Smartknowledgeu is on some "blacklist" from a company called mxtoolbox.com. Who the hell this company is I have no idea. But some entity called Backscatter.org blacklisted them.

I have only good things to say about Mr. Kim and his company. I believe he must be upsetting some people out there for this issue to arise.

BillAuAg's picture

beinki, Good thing there were

beinki,

Good thing there were no evil bankers hurt during the making of your epic film.  I did not notice any posting of EPA or OSHA compliance with your new Anti Banker Cannon (ABC), so to protect the environment I have notified the ABC police who will no doubt shower you with Silver American Eagles until you cry Uncle, or drown in silver!

tmosley's picture

I, for one, am hoping we

I, for one, am hoping we don't see a rise.  If the price rises, silver may enter the open market in bulk.  This is as opposed to the current market condition, where there don't appear to be any COMEX deliverable bars available at the retail level, and indication of a greater shortage.  APMEX has a couple of 1000+oz bars available now, but they are not COMEX deliverable.

The fact that you STILL can't get much silver below $2 an oz premium, even at great bulk (500+oz), even after being at these price levels for months speaks to the fundamental demand in the physical market, even as paper markets flounder.

Although it looks like there won't be a total default on the COMEX this month (it still might, given the non-delivery strain being placed on the exchange recently), that does not mean that the physical market isn't tight.  It is.

California Lawyer's picture

Why the spike in Silver Spot this morning?

West coast time here.  Silver spot on a tear.  I am all confused.  Nothing newsworthy, no events. what gives?  I read Atlee's comment today, and looked over his charts he posted.  Tends to put fear in my mind.  I am not in this market anyway, but I do try to analyze the current information so that I can learn to spot trends, etc.

This is a watching and waiting time, period.

Good luck.

p.s. I could not find anything new on the Federal lawsuits vs. JP Morgue.  If I find something, I will start a new thread.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

@ Chin... thanks for cheering me up

As if my trading account wasn't depressing enough lately, Chin has to hit me with the impending bacon shortage. Now I just want to go cry in the corner. No, heck with that-  this is a reason to fight.

Lend me your ears, o' Countrymen, and take heed:  they may take our freedom, enslave us to their debt, and trample our liberties... but the day they come for the bacon is the day the revolution begins.  They can have my bacon when they pry it from my cold, dead sandwich.

SilverWealth's picture

timing

Lots of speculation as usual about whether the bottom is in etc. All I know is the SVM I bought on sale over the last week I just sold. I am selling a little more soon if someone who was waiting for 'relative strength' now feels the chart gives him 'confirmation' to go long with confidence.  

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