More Charts

As we start the week, I wanted to give you even greater detail on the gold and crude markets.

First, here's a weekly gold chart that takes us back almost three years. Again, note that the trend from the bottom has continued unabated but that every six months or so, price reverts back to the trendline.

paper_6-27goldw.jpg

With this chart in mind, now take a look at the daily chart of the August gold. We have, without question, ended the recent four-month rally and have now entered a two-month consolidation phase. How low can gold go? I certainly think it will test the lows of early May near 1460 but it could even go lower, albeit briefly. There's a lot of horizontal support near 1440 and, by next month, the long term trend shown above will be in that area, too. Therefore, sometime in July, I expect gold to dip to near 1450 or even 1440. Again, do not let your heart be troubled. This is just a normal phase.

paper_6-27goldd.jpg

I'd like to look at crude, too, because I find it really interesting. I don't currently have a position, having blown all my crude cash on July $115 calls back in April. Ouch! Regardless, how this trades going forward is going to be fun to watch. In one corner, you have the charts, OPEC and the coming QE. In the other corner, you have the expressed desires of the Obama regime. Which side will win? We'll see. For now, here's a weekly chart that clearly shows support in the upper 80s as well as a daily chart that paints the same picture:

paper_6-27crudew.jpgpaper_6-27cruded.jpg

Sorry but I'm out of time for now. Have a great day. I'll check in again this afternoon.  TF

84 Comments

SilverTree's picture

Baaaaaaa

Dimeboy's picture

First?

Why that matters...

Good Morning Turd!

jmmergott's picture

If I didn't no better Mr.

If I didn't no better Mr. Ferguson, I'd say you've been reading my work!  A test of the 150 day (30 week)  MA is called for now.

jmgoldstocks.blogspot.com

Dimeboy's picture

Fast

No roots on the SilverTree!

jlee2027's picture

Nice photo

That's a waker upper

ScottJ's picture

Comex Expiration for Silver

Comex Expiration for Silver today (Monday 6/27).  Notice how the intra-cycle lows tend to be correlated strongly with comex options expiration date.  To me, this suggests that we have bottomed (nice double bottom at 33.5?) and that we are going to be moving up in the next several weeks.

With the US Debt Ceiling to be voted on in the next several weeks (as it takes 2-3 weeks to pass to become law (deadline early August), so target early July for the debt ceiling to pass), we will see the US dollar fall and the equity markets surge (nominally only, not real value).

I believe this is may be the bottom of the recent consolidation before the big move to new highs in gold, and eventually silver (gold first and foremost).  For a very valuable post, I recommend Jim Sinclair's mailbox comment.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/06/25/jims-mailbox-727/

Sorry Turd, still not buying the Summer Duldrums.  The technicals say otherwise, but the fundamentals are about to change is my belief.  Yes, you can only be right once when you think along these lines, but that doesn't stop me from theorizing about it :)

--

P.S. We had our fun with the EURO fears, and now it is back to the US fears.  Spain will be next when TPTB need more EURO fears to accommodate a weak US dollar, but a weak US Dollar is inevitably next in this sea-saw of currency problems.

speconomist's picture

Thanks for the update on

Thanks for the update on gold, I guess it's time to keep some powder dry for August/September.

Jive Dadson's picture

The chart for POT (a big

The chart for POT (a big fertilizer company) looked just like that in '08.  For a long, long time it had been bouncing up from a rising trend line.  Then it fell from 200 to 50.

Just saying.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Debt ceiling

Here's the match to light the fire for gold and silver...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/prepare-surge-treasury-issuance-soon-debt-ceiling-lifted

buzlightening's picture

CONmex OEX today.

Always more reasons for EE to cap real money gold/silver; take it down and drive sheeple into paper fiat; related assets.  Lets cut the margins on TBonds again and lever paper fiat all up over the rainbow, before the big crash of Keynesian kleptocraps .  More reason than ever there was gold/silver physical metal to backthe capping; takedowns.  Watching and waiting patiently for granite weighted planets of debt to fall to earth, crushing the paper fiat competition to real sound honest money gold/silver. 

Seacap81's picture

The Obama Regime's desires

The Obama Regime's desires seem to be on display this morning.  How else does one explain a falling dollar yet oil, metals, grains, CRB index, are all down in unison.  Okay, we could possibly shrug that off and give the Regime a break, but lookie here.....it appears the Central planners are lifting the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P.  Gotta have that wealth effect ya know.  This divergence makes very little sense, so we can only assume it is all planned and manipulated.

Maybe sanity returns to markets this afternoon and things makes sense again.   But for now, things look very suspect. 

Long John's picture

Gracias....

Thanks Turd....

Goofy's picture

Live EU meeting

Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs meeting discussing global financial system/crises/G20 etc live now:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/wps-europarl-internet/frd/live/live-video?eventId=20110627-1500-COMMITTEE-ECON&language=EN

atlee's picture

Euro fears accommodates a

Euro fears accommodates a strong dollar not a weak dollar. Today's Euro action is pricing in an affirmative vote from Greek parliament tomorrow. You are a long way from your fun with the Euro ending.

Art Lomax's picture

Corn

Obama must have sold some corn from the strategic food reserve.

D0C's picture

Notice from OANDA

As is well discussed, trading in forex is changing. I thought it had to do with capitalization of the individual firms and OANDA was on a list that someone here had posted a link to.  Apparently it is not.  My guess is that 99% of retail investors will be gone on the 15th.  Here is a question.    In the few days leading up to 7/15, will there be abnormally (what is that anymore?) high selling forcing prices down?  Is this a date for bottom fishing?

Here is the notice I recieved:

As a result of the recently enacted Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, U.S.-based retail forex dealers such as OANDA are prohibited from offering leveraged trading in precious metals to retail clients after Friday, July 15, 2011.

As a client based in the U.S., you will not be able to trade our four precious metal pairs (XAU/USD, XAG/USD, XAU/JPY, XAG/JPY) on a leveraged basis, effective end of day July 15. Leveraged trading in other currency pairs will remain unaffected, with the same margin requirements.

You will still be able to trade precious metals, but only on a 1:1 non-leveraged basis (requiring substantially more margin). If you do not have sufficient margin to cover your open metal positions in full, you need to reduce your exposure to gold and silver pairs before end of day July 15, or risk a margin call of all your open positions when this change is implemented.

We sincerely regret any inconvenience caused by this change in legal requirements. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact our Customer Service Team at frontdesk@oanda.com.

We appreciate your business with OANDA.

- The OANDA fxTrade Team
 

Warren Peace's picture

  Consolidation Phase =

 

Consolidation Phase = Accumulation Phase

Use the seasons for their proper purpose.

http://apmex.com  http://gainesvillecoins.com

Kumanari's picture

37 years of lows

If one knows where to look they would see the average low (ag) for the past 37 years is last week  of  june.

Hang10-Hawaii's picture

stealth QE3???

Bloomberg is reporting this AM a potential $300B treasury purchase by the Fed., which would be done by rolling over maturing "assets" (and I use that term very loosely) on it's MONSTROUS friggin' balance sheet.  Not sure if this is already baked into commodity and PM prices, or if it will take a while to sink in.  Perhaps the better question is how might the algo's respond.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-May-Buy-300-Billion-in-bloomberg-1457319130.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

Eric Original's picture

My tune for the day

Merle Haggard -"If We Make It Through December"

This tune can fit so many things.  "December" is a metaphor for whatever is on your mind.  The state of the world, summer doldrums in metals, whatever.  Enjoy.

Eric Original's picture

Hang 10

Fed rollovers are precisely ​the kind of thing that Jim Rickards has been talking about for months.  Still plenty of firepower for them to set the market, regardless of any official QE.  At least for a while...

colonelangus's picture

I think the trend line will

I think the trend line will be getting a nice upward offset soon.

Lonerangersilver's picture

Living through a currency devaluation

This is how I am going to use my physical when the dollar goes belly up.

http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/06/20/living-through-a-currency-devaluation/

ScottJ's picture

When I said Euro fears to

When I said Euro fears to accommodate a weak dollar, I meant it in the way that TPTB(& their trusty algorithms) control all currencies/rates, and when the dollar is at a point where it needs to be boosted, Spain will be rolled out and all of the sudden it's problems will take center-stage giving some breathing room/time to the dollar.  The sea-saw....

I didn't mean to imply that the amount of euro fears were going to suddenly dissipate, but instead I believe the focus is about to shift back on the US Dollar troubles.  Really a situation of "who is worse at the current time.."

The fact of the matter is all currencies are about to make new highs in gold, signaling that our current keynesian structure is about to have a lot of changes coming in a timely fashion.

atlee's picture

My tune for today is by

My tune for today is by Rihanna and it is called Rehab. "gotta check into rehab cause baby your my disease"

(silver)

Ultra86's picture

Why we own precious metals

GM fellow Turdites,

On a day like today, with gold back under $1500, I thought I'd share a wonderful speech by Michael Ruppert. At about 11:45 he goes on a long passionate tirade about the end of the infinite growth paradigm. If anyone is feeling shaky about their positions I highly recommend a listen.

http://www.collapsenet.com/free-resources/collapsenet-public-access/item/1026-mike-ruppert-green-life-eco-fest-2011

If you're not familiar Ruppert wrote "Crossing the Rubicon - The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil" and was the subject of the recent film "Collapse"

http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Rubicon-Decline-American-Empire/dp/0865715408
http://www.netflix.com/Movie/Collapse/70123600

agNau's picture

@Scotj

Nice work!
And I agree with your concenssous view.....We will see a different summer in the metals than advertised. The attempted media/wall street ads are running full tilt. I am of the belief that the Global buying pressure on both metals will force the metals upward through all the BS. The chart action is pointing towards the outcome Turd has laid out, but I believe we will see a different outcome.....at the very least the "doldrums" will be abbreviated.
A greater need for safety for a greater number of people globally......it has to change the "norm" in the markets.
This time will be different.

gdnchg's picture

2%

Down almost 2% for the day.....yes I know it's OE day. Now I'm wondering, what will happen when July 15 rolls around?

treefrog's picture

agents provocateur

a) most people look closely at the money they receive in change, and it there is anything unusual about it, their attention is drawn to it like a magnet. 

b) most small office supply stores will make a customized rubber stamp to the customer's design. 

c) a dialog balloon saying "silver and gold, honest money for honest people"  with the words coming out of the mouth of geo. washington, abe lincoln, alex. hamilton, andy jackson, u.s. grant, or ben franklin will get the message across. 

d) as the bill passes from hand to hand, each new holder will read the message. 

the contents of the dialog balloon are of course variable.  ten words or less is good.  sheeple's attention span is short. 

**************

da debbil made me repost this from the viral silver project.

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